Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Cross-shelf distribution of copepods and the role of event-scale winds in a northern California upwelling zone

Cross-shelf distribution and abundance of copepod nauplii and copepodids were measured during three summer upwelling seasons (2000–2002) in a coastal upwelling zone off northern California. These 3 years varied considerably in the intensity of winds, abundance of chlorophyll, and water temperature. The cruises in 2000 were characterized by relaxation conditions, with generally high levels of chlorophyll and high water temperature. The cruises in 2001 and 2002 were dominated by strong and persistent upwelling events, leading to lower chlorophyll and water temperatures. The copepod assemblage was dominated by Oithona spp., Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp., with Metridia pacifica (lucens), Microsetella rosea, Oncaea spp. and Tortanus discaudatus also common during all 3 years. The cross-shelf distribution of copepods was generally shifted offshore during upwelling and onshore during relaxation events, although some variability between species occurred. Abundance of all life stages generally exhibited a negative correlation with cross-shelf transport averaged over at least 1–4 days and lagged by 0–3 days, indicating lower abundances during and immediately after active upwelling. However, copepod nauplii seemed to respond positively to wind events lasting 1–5 days followed by a period of relaxation lasting 6 or 7 days. These rapid rates of change in abundance are probably too great to be due to in situ growth and reproduction alone; physical processes must also play a role. These results suggest a highly dynamic relationship between copepods and upwelling events off northern California, with species-specific responses to upwelling to be expected.     

A note on the seafloor coupling characteristics of the new ONR ocean-bottom seismometer

A series of transient tests were conducted to determine the seafloor coupling characteristics of a new ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) developed for the United States Office of Naval Research (ONR). The OBS comprises a large recording package and a separate sensor package that is deployed from the recording package. In addition to the coupling characteristics of both the sensor and the recording packages, the seismic energy radiated from the main recording package as a result of motion of the recording package was measured. The observed vertical coupling resonances of both the recording package and the sensor package are in good agreement with those predicted by a simple model of soil-structure interaction. The most important result of this study is that significant energy is radiated from the recording package in response to horizontal motions of the recording package. When the sensor package is 1 m from the recording package, the amplitude of the recorded signal is similar to that recorded in the recording package. In the field, this effect will result in distortion of seismic signals and increased background noise recorded by the sensor package if the recording package is disturbed by seafloor currents or biological activity. The amplitude of this signal attenuates by approximately a factor of two as sensor/recorder separation is increased from 1 to 6 m, suggesting that an improved response can be achieved by increasing the separation between the recording package and the sensors. This effect is much less severe for vertical disturbances of the recording package.     

Retrograde fluid infiltration in the high-grade Modum Complex South Norway: evidence for age,source and REE mobility

The high-grade metamorphic basement of the Modum Complex, South Norway,exhibits retrogradation and alteration due to late stage fluid infiltration.Extensive alteration zones of albite-and calcite-rich veining occur especiallywithin and around numerous metagabbros. The gabbros, intruded at 1224±15Ma, are now partly altered to amphibolites due to the subsequent high-grade metamorphism.Two generations of albite-rich rocks have been recognized: (1) a fine-grained, foliated type;(2) a coarse-grained, crosscutting type. Both types show a typical greenschist facies mineralassemblage; albite ± actinolite ± chlorite ± talc. The calcite veins/dykesrepresent a younger generation of veins than both albite-rich types. U–Pb data for spheneof type (1) yielded an age of 1080±3 Ma, determining a point on the retrogradeP-T-t path of the Modum Complex. Increasing albitisation of themetagabbros leads to a decrease in(¹⁴³ND/¹⁴⁴Nd)_oand an increase in (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶)_o.Albite- and calcite-rich samples show negative _Nd and positive _Sr, suggesting that fluids which interacted with the metagabbros originated from a crustal reservoir. The Nd and Sr isotopic data show disequilibrium at the microscale as well as at the macroscale. Negative Sm–Nd model ages of the albite-rich rocks demonstrate that rare-earth elements (REEs) were mobile and fractionated during albitisation.     

Organic geochemistry of silicified wood,Petrified Forest National Park,Arizona

Lignin derivatives have been isolated for the first time from carbonaceous sections of the silicified (~90% SiO₂) conifer Araucarioxylon arizonicum. The products released by sequential high vacuum pyrolysis and identified by combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) include a wide variety of alkyl-substituted, phenolic and condensed aromatic compounds.Brauns spruce lignin was pyrolized and analyzed by GC-MS as a comparison for the fossil wood data. The primary pyrolyzates at the 300°C step were CO₂, H₂O, ethanol and propanol. The main product at 450°C was 4-methyl-2-methoxyphenol (methyl guaiacol), but at 600°C the pyrolyzates were similar both in product composition and in relative abundance to those from silicified wood. The results suggest that the fossil wood experienced a mild thermal event during which the ether bonds were ruptured and loss of oxygen occurred along with the rearrangement of the original wood into a highly stable polymer.