Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Partitioning of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons between water and particles compared to bioaccumulation in mussels: a harbour case

Water and particles from three sites located in Halifax Harbour, near and further away from combined municipal sewage effluents (CMSE) were analysed for parental and alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (par and alkPAH). Bioavailability of PAH was compared for inter-tidal mussels collected at the same sites in April and November. The PAH fingerprint determined over 9 sampling times covering a period of 19 months differed more between phases (water and particles) and seasons, than between sites. In the spring, more alkPAH associated with diesel and gasoline were detected in the soluble phase, along with more bioaccumulation of alkPAH in inter-tidal mussels. A broader number of parPAH were detected in mussels collected in the fall. The mean sum of dissolved alkPAH concentrations was higher in water at the site closer to raw CMSE than at the other two sites and particles of that site. However, lowest bioconcentration factors (BCF) were determined in mussels of this more contaminated site. Similar biota-particle accumulation factors (BPAF) were determined for parPAH in mussels from the three sites, all lower than the BCF of alkPAH. The study indicates that sewage treatment plants will reduce the amount of parPAH especially larger than fluoranthene and pyrene from being deposited in the harbour; that alk naphthalenes and fluorenes present in water will continue to be discharged; that the disturbance of sediments can make particle-bound PAH available to mussels.     

Code of Practice For Ocean Mining: An International Effort to Develop a Code For Environmental Management of Marine Mining

A code of practice for ocean mining has been developed by the International Marine Minerals Society. The code provides general guiding Principles for development of marine mineral resources and delineates Operating Guidelines for application, as appropriate, at specific mining sites. In total 11 operating guidelines are provided to serve as benchmarks for industry and targets for regulatory agencies and other stakeholders. They include the following commitments: •To sustainable development, •To environmentally responsible corporate ethics, •To the development of effective community partnership, •To implementation of environmental risk management, •To the integration of environmental management into all phases of development, •To the establishment of corporate environmental performance targets, •To timely environmental improvements and upgrading, •To responsible rehabilitation of operations sites and decommissioning of facilities, and •To accurate and timely, reporting and documentation, archiving, and performance review.     

Cross-shelf distribution of copepods and the role of event-scale winds in a northern California upwelling zone

Cross-shelf distribution and abundance of copepod nauplii and copepodids were measured during three summer upwelling seasons (2000–2002) in a coastal upwelling zone off northern California. These 3 years varied considerably in the intensity of winds, abundance of chlorophyll, and water temperature. The cruises in 2000 were characterized by relaxation conditions, with generally high levels of chlorophyll and high water temperature. The cruises in 2001 and 2002 were dominated by strong and persistent upwelling events, leading to lower chlorophyll and water temperatures. The copepod assemblage was dominated by Oithona spp., Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp., with Metridia pacifica (lucens), Microsetella rosea, Oncaea spp. and Tortanus discaudatus also common during all 3 years. The cross-shelf distribution of copepods was generally shifted offshore during upwelling and onshore during relaxation events, although some variability between species occurred. Abundance of all life stages generally exhibited a negative correlation with cross-shelf transport averaged over at least 1–4 days and lagged by 0–3 days, indicating lower abundances during and immediately after active upwelling. However, copepod nauplii seemed to respond positively to wind events lasting 1–5 days followed by a period of relaxation lasting 6 or 7 days. These rapid rates of change in abundance are probably too great to be due to in situ growth and reproduction alone; physical processes must also play a role. These results suggest a highly dynamic relationship between copepods and upwelling events off northern California, with species-specific responses to upwelling to be expected.     

A note on the seafloor coupling characteristics of the new ONR ocean-bottom seismometer

A series of transient tests were conducted to determine the seafloor coupling characteristics of a new ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) developed for the United States Office of Naval Research (ONR). The OBS comprises a large recording package and a separate sensor package that is deployed from the recording package. In addition to the coupling characteristics of both the sensor and the recording packages, the seismic energy radiated from the main recording package as a result of motion of the recording package was measured. The observed vertical coupling resonances of both the recording package and the sensor package are in good agreement with those predicted by a simple model of soil-structure interaction. The most important result of this study is that significant energy is radiated from the recording package in response to horizontal motions of the recording package. When the sensor package is 1 m from the recording package, the amplitude of the recorded signal is similar to that recorded in the recording package. In the field, this effect will result in distortion of seismic signals and increased background noise recorded by the sensor package if the recording package is disturbed by seafloor currents or biological activity. The amplitude of this signal attenuates by approximately a factor of two as sensor/recorder separation is increased from 1 to 6 m, suggesting that an improved response can be achieved by increasing the separation between the recording package and the sensors. This effect is much less severe for vertical disturbances of the recording package.