Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

A Functional Analysis of the Benthic Macrofauna of the São Sebastião Channel (Southeastern Brazil)

Abstract.  The major problem in coastal areas of developing countries is disturbance caused by anthropogenic influence. This disturbance can be quantified by analysing the distribution and composition of marine communities using uni- and multivariate techniques and the biotic index. A study of benthic macrofauna was carried out along the São Sebastião Channel, northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil, in an area with a submarine outfall, a petroleum terminal and a commercial harbour. Sampling was undertaken seasonally, by means of a van Veen grab (0.1 m²) at 15 oceanographic stations, from November 1993 to August 1994. A total of 392 species were identified (129 Polychaeta, 127 Mollusca, 98 Crustacea, 28 Echinodermata and 10 other phyla). The sedimentary pattern recorded for the São Sebastião Channel is very heterogeneous, influenced mainly by strong wind-driven currents, and differs from nearby shelf areas. The study area could be divided into three regions based on sediment texture and fauna: one region dominated by medium and coarse sand with low values of organic carbon; a second area where pelitic fractions were dominant with high values of organic carbon and nitrogen; and a third region characterised by fine and very fine sand, presenting intermediate organic carbon values. No temporal significant variation in abundance and species composition was found, except in autumn. The use of the 'marine Biotic Coefficient' showed the same ecological trend as the faunal abundance and demonstrated that the central continental region of the channel is affected by human activities.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Efficacy of laser cleaning in the removal of biological patina on the volcanic scoria of the rock-hewn churches of Lalibela,Ethiopia

The Lalibela rock-hewn churches are one of the most important religious pilgrimage sites in Ethiopia. These churches are carved from the scoriaceous basalt rock substrate, which has been exposed to attack by biological agents with significant loss of surface material. Particularly, the widespread growth of lichens and other microorganisms on the carved surfaces of the churches has proven to represent a substantial threat for the preservation of the site. In this study, laboratory tests have been conducted to assess the feasibility of using laser technology as an efficient cleaning method of biological patina from polymineralic stone substrates. Multi-analytical techniques were applied for the characterization of the stone samples collected from two of the Lalibela churches: Bete Giyorgis and Bete Amanuel. Stone samples artificially inoculated with bacteria, yeast, fungi isolates, and lichen-encrusted samples were laser cleaned using UV and IR laser wavelengths. The high content of Fe and Ti oxides and the high porosity have made the stone surfaces easily susceptible to low-energy laser treatment. Results indicate that laser cleaning can be applied to polymineralic lithotypes and UV irradiation can successfully remove lichen colonies. Further studies need to be conducted to optimize the laser procedure in polymineralic, high porosity stones.     

On the use of logistic regression for stellar classification

We are totally immersed in the Big Data era and reliable algorithms and methods for data classification are instrumental for astronomical research. Random Forest and Support Vector Machines algorithms have become popular over the last few years and they are widely used for different stellar classification problems. In this article, we explore an alternative supervised classification method scarcely exploited in astronomy, Logistic Regression, that has been applied successfully in other scientific areas, particularly biostatistics. We have applied this method in order to derive membership probabilities for potential T Tauri star candidates from ultraviolet-infrared colour-colour diagrams.     

Association of phosphate with rhyolite glass in marine Neogene tuffs from Patagonia,Argentina

The precipitation/replacement of Ca‐phosphate is a complex process that commonly takes place during the early diagenesis in marine sediments. The unusual occurrence of shallow marine, early diagenetic phosphatic deposits associated with glassy tuffs in the Neogene Gaiman Formation, in the Chubut Province, Patagonia, Argentina, constitutes a good case example for the study of replacement and precipitation of Ca‐phosphate on an unstable substrate. Isocon diagrams illustrate that chemical changes during glass diagenesis include gains in loss on ignition and Ca, and losses of K. These changes are the result of glass hydration during sea water–glass interaction, together with adsorption and diffusion of ions into the bulk shard; combined, these represent an incipient process of volcanic glass replacement by Ca‐phosphate. Subsequent early diagenetic P enrichment in the pore solutions led to phosphate precipitation, associated with pitting on the glass shards and pumice. The associated development of a reactive surface promoted the incorporation of P and Ca into their margins. Lastly, precipitation of calcium phosphate filled the vesicles and other open cavities, inhibiting further glass dissolution. The high porosity and reactivity of the volcanic glass provided an appropriate substrate for phosphate precipitation, leading to the development of authigenic apatite concretions in the volcanic‐glass bearing strata of the Gaiman Formation. This research is of significance for those concerned with marine phosphatic deposits and sheds light on the processes of early diagenetic phosphate precipitation by replacement of an atypical, unstable substrate like hydrated volcanic glass.     

Surface changes on crystalline stones due to salt crystallisation

This study assesses the changes on the surface of crystalline stones due to salt crystallisation. Efflorescence was forced to grow on the surface of granite and marbles through 60 cycles of salt crystallisation with sodium sulphate. Changes on surface roughness, gloss and colour were measured every 15 cycles and the specimens were examined with naked eye and SEM. Sodium sulphate produces damage which depends on mineral composition. Results show that granites experience a mechanical decay with an increase in roughness. Peaks of mica can be observed on the surface and cracks widen and grow deeper. Colour and gloss do not show any significant change, although gloss decreases with an increase in surface roughness. In marbles, the decay is mainly chemical. Surface roughness increases due to dissolution of the calcite. White marbles exhibit yellowing. Gloss decreases during the first cycles—as grain boundaries become more visible—but tends to regain almost its initial value as the number of cycles increases. In this case, gloss does not show any relation with surface roughness.     

Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.