Estimating australian forest fire danger under conditions of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations

The most appropriate indices with which to quantify Australian bushfire danger are the McArthur fire danger meters. These meters use meteorological information to produce a fire danger index that is directly related to the chance of a fire starting - and to the severity of a fire once it has started. The Mark 5 forest-fire danger meter uses air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, plus a drought factor that is calculated using daily rainfall and temperature information.Three years of daily data generated from the CSIRO four-level general circulation model, and thirty years of daily data generated from the CSIRO nine-level model were used to estimate the daily McArthur forest fire danger index for simulations corresponding to present conditions, and to those corresponding to doubled atmospheric CO₂. The performance of these models with respect to fire danger was tested by comparing the fire danger index for Sale (in the Eastern part of Victoria, South-eastern Australia) calculated from analysis of daily climatological data with the modelled annual cumulative forest fire danger index for the grid point that was representative of Sale. Data from both models for all Australian grid points were also examined. Both models predict an increase in fire danger over much of Australia for their doubled CO₂ scenarios.The results from the models confirm that annually averaged daily relative humidity is the single most important variable in the estimation of forest fire danger on an annual basis, yet the models tend to produce relative humidities that are slightly too low so that the fire danger is overestimated. A simple one-box model of evaporation indicates that the value of relative humidity to be expected under an altered climatic regime depends on the modelled relation between actual and potential evaporation, the present values of relative humidity and evaporation rate, as well as on the expected changes in wind speed.     

TRIFFID Photometry of Globular Cluster Cores — I. Photometric Techniques and Variable Stars in M15

The Galway/DIAS Image Sharpening Camera, TRIFFID, has been used to make observations in two colours of the centre of the post-core-collapse globular cluster M15. We present here our analysis of the photometry in B over two seasons. We have combined the complementary qualities of the HST 's high astrometric precision and TRIFFID's extended coverage and photometric precision, to perform crowded-field photometry in the innermost region of M15. Our technique virtually eliminates the problem of extreme crowding which has hitherto hampered studies of the variable star populations in globular cluster cores, and thereby provides an extension of the HST 's capability. Candidate variables detected with the HST have been confirmed and monitored over longer periods. We show that most of these are RR Lyrae stars, and that one is a short-period Type II Cepheid (the third to be discovered in M15). Our photometric study also produced evidence of a similar number of new variables. These also appear to be RR Lyrae stars, except for a possible eclipsing system. Further data from an upgraded version of TRIFFID have recently been obtained to help to refine the light curves of all these objects.     

Anaerobic Metabolism in Tidal Freshwater Wetlands: I. Plant Removal Effects on Iron Reduction and Methanogenesis

For energetic reasons, iron reduction suppresses methanogenesis in tidal freshwater wetlands; however, when iron reduction is limited by iron oxide availability, methanogenesis dominates anaerobic carbon mineralization. Plants can mediate this microbial competition by releasing oxygen into the rhizosphere and supplying oxidized iron for iron reducers. We utilized a plant removal experiment in two wetland sites to test the hypothesis that, in the absence of plants, rates of iron reduction would be diminished, allowing methanogenesis to dominate anaerobic metabolism. In both sites, methanogenesis was the primary anaerobic mineralization pathway, with iron reduction dominating only early and late in the growing season in the site with a less organic soil. These patterns were not influenced by the presence of plants, demonstrating that plants were not a key control of microbial metabolism. Instead, we suggest that site conditions, including soil chemistry, and temperature are important controls of the pathways of anaerobic metabolism.     

Partial analysis applied to scale problems in surface moisture fluxes

Partial analysis is applied to the problem of predicting the moisture fluxes of infiltraton and evaporation at land surfaces. The discussion covers the widely different scales of the soil particle, a soil pedon, a field, a basin and a biome. It is suggested that simplified models can be used at these different scales to provide bounding solutions to the integrated behaviour of land surface fluxes of interest in linking hydrologic models and general circulation climate models.     

Symmetry, bifurcation and stacking of the central configurations of the planar 1+4 body problem

In this work we are interested in the central configurations of the planar $1+4$ body problem where the satellites have different infinitesimal masses and two of them are diametrically opposite in a circle. We can think of this problem as a stacked central configuration too. We show that the configurations are necessarily symmetric and the other satellites have the same mass. Moreover we prove that the number of central configurations in this case is in general one, two or three and, in the special case where the satellites diametrically opposite have the same mass, we prove that the number of central configurations is one or two and give the exact value of the ratio of the masses that provides this bifurcation.     

Making Decisions About Forestland Succession: Perspectives from Pennsylvania's Private Forest Landowners

Decision-making processes that private forest landowners (PFLs) engage when planning for their forestland’s future are not well understood. The forest ecosystem and the people who depend on its services face several critical challenges, including how to sustainably manage an increasingly parcelized forest. The Theory of Planned Behavior has been used to illuminate connections among constructs informing PFL behavior, but fails to adequately capture the complexities of forest owners’ lived experiences and how those inform behaviors. In-depth interviews provide a deeper understanding of how Pennsylvania PFLs make decisions concerning ownership succession. We approached those who recently subdivided, sold/donated conservation easements, or had not committed to any plan and asked them to tell us about their planning experiences. Relationships among family members and the quality of their communication about the land and succession emerged as important factors in the planning process. Implications for theory, forest planning, education and outreach, and further study are advanced.     

On the mixing processes in estuaries: The fractional freshwater method revisited

A mathematically transparent model for long-term solute dynamics, based on an oscillating reference frame, is applied to the analysis of the mixing process in estuaries. Classical tidally-averaged transport models for estuaries, all derived in some way from the Fractional Freshwater Method of Ketchum (1951) are reinterpreted in this framework. We demonstrate that in these models, the dispersion coefficients obtained from salinity profiles are not always a good representation of the mixing intensity of other dissolved constituents. In contrast, the hypothesis of equal coefficients is always verified in our oscillating coordinate system, which is almost devoid of tidal harmonics. The mathematical representation of the seaward boundary condition is also investigated. In the tidally-averaged Eulerian models, a fixed Dirichlet boundary condition is usually imposed, a condition that corresponds to an immediate, infinite dilution of the dissolved constituent beyond the fixed estuarine mouth. This mathematical representation of the estuarine-coastal zone interface at a fixed location is compared with the case of an oscillating location, which protrudes back and forth into the sea with the tide. Results demonstrate that the mathematical representation of the seaward boundary condition has a significant influence on the resulting mixing curves. We also show how to apply our approach to the prediction of mixing curves in real estuaries.     

The effect of fluid composition on the behavior of well cemented, quartz-rich sandstone during faulting

Previous studies [O'Kane, A., Onasch, C.M., Farver, J., 2007. The role of fluids in low-temperature, fault-related deformation of quartz arenite. Journal of Structural Geology 29, 819--836; Cook, J., Dunne, W.M., Onasch, C.M., 2006. Development of a dilatant damage zone along a thrust relay in a low-porosity quartz arenite, Journal of Structural Geology 28, 776–792] found that quartz arenite within two fault zones in the Appalachian foreland thrust belt displays very different structural styles and histories despite deforming at similar pressures and temperatures during the Alleghanian orogeny. A comparison of the grain-scale deformation and fluid histories using transmitted and cathodoluminescence microscopy and fluid inclusion microthermometry, shows that fluid composition was a controlling factor for causing these differences. The Cove fault zone deformed in the presence of aqueous fluids, first a CaCl₂ brine and then an iron-rich fluid. The precipitation of quartz cement from the brine kept pace with brittle deformation, maintaining overall rock cohesion in the fault zone. The introduction of iron-rich fluids caused a switch from precipitation to dissolution of quartz, along with precipitation of goethite. In a damage zone along a backthrust in the Cave Mountain anticline, early deformation occurred in the presence of an aqueous fluid from which quartz was precipitated. The latest deformation, however, occurred in the presence of a methane-rich fluid, which inhibited the precipitation of quartz cement producing porous breccias and open fractures despite deformation at 6 km depth. Fluid composition not only affected cementation in the fault zones, but also the selection of grain-scale deformation mechanisms. Therefore, it is a controlling factor in determining the behavior and strength of these fault zones.     

The Sensitivity of Australian Fire Danger to Climate Change

Global climate change, such as that due to the proposed enhanced greenhouseeffect, is likely tohave a significant effect on biosphere-atmosphere interactions, includingbushfire regimes. Thisstudy quantifies the possible impact of climate change on fire regimes byestimating changes infire weather and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FDI), an index thatis used throughoutAustralia to estimate fire danger. The CSIRO 9-level general circulation model(CSIRO9 GCM)is used to simulate daily and seasonal fire danger for the present Australianclimate and for adoubled-CO₂ climate. The impact assessment includes validation ofthe GCMs daily controlsimulation and the derivation of correction factors which improve theaccuracy of the firedanger simulation. In summary, the general impact of doubled-CO₂is to increase firedanger at all sites by increasing the number of days of very high and extremefire danger.Seasonal fire danger responds most to the large CO₂-induced changesin maximumtemperature.