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1.
Agathe Germe Matthieu Chevallier David Salas y Mélia Emilia Sanchez-Gomez Christophe Cassou 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2519-2538
The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill. 相似文献
2.
John Douglas Didier Bertil Agathe Roullé Pascal Dominique Philippe Jousset 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(3):271-299
Strong-motion networks have been operating in the Caribbean region since the 1970s, however, until the mid-1990s only a few analogue stations were operational and the quantity of data recorded was very low. Since the mid-1990s, digital accelerometric networks have been established on islands within the region. At present there are thought to be about 160 stations operating in this region with a handful on Cuba, 65 on the French Antilles (mainly Guadeloupe and Martinique), eight on Jamaica, 78 on Puerto Rico (plus others on adjacent islands) and four on Trinidad.After briefly summarising the available data from the Caribbean islands, this article is mainly concerned with analysing the data that has been recorded by the networks operating on the French Antilles in terms of their distribution with respect to magnitude, source-to-site distance, focal depth and event type; site effects at certain stations; and also with respect to their predictability by ground motion estimation equations developed using data from different regions of the world. More than 300 good quality triaxial acceleration time-histories have been recorded on Guadeloupe and Martinique at a large number of stations from earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 4.8, however, most of the records are from considerable source-to-site distances. From the data available it is found that many of the commonly-used ground motion estimation equations for shallow crustal earthquakes poorly estimate the observed ground motions on the two islands; ground motions on Guadeloupe and Martinique have smaller amplitudes and are more variable than expected. This difference could be due to regional dependence of ground motions because of, for example, differing tectonics or crustal structures or because the ground motions so far recorded are, in general, from smaller earthquakes and greater distances than the range of applicability of the investigated equations. 相似文献
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4.
Agathe Laës Renaud Vuillemin Bernard Leilde Graldine Sarthou Claudie Bournot-Marec Stphane Blain 《Marine Chemistry》2005,97(3-4):347-356
A sensitive method for iron determination in seawater has been adapted on a submersible chemical analyser for in situ measurements. The technique is based on flow injection analysis (FIA) coupled with spectrophotometric detection. When direct injection of seawater was used, the detection limit was 1.6 nM, and the precision 7%, for a triplicate injection of a 4 nM standard. At low iron concentrations, on line preconcentration using a column filled with 8-hydroxyquinoline (8HQ) resin was used. The detection limit was 0.15 nM (time of preconcentration = 240 s), and the precision 6%, for a triplicate determination of a 1 nM standard, allowing the determination of Fe in most of the oceanic regimes, except the most depleted surface waters. The effect of temperature, pressure, salinity, copper, manganese, and iron speciation on the response of the analyser was investigated. The slope of the calibration curves followed a linear relation as a function of pressure (Cp = 2.8 × 10− 5P + 3.4 × 10− 2 s nmol− 1, R2 = 0.997, for Θ = 13 °C) and an exponential relation as a function of temperature (CΘ = 0.009e0.103Θ, R2 = 0.832, for P = 3 bar). No statistical difference at 95% confidence level was observed for samples of different salinities (S = 0, 20, 35). Only very high concentration of copper (1000 × [Fe]) produced a detectable interference. The chemical analyser was deployed in the coastal environment of the Bay of Brest to investigate the effect of iron speciation on the response of the analyser. Direct injection was used and seawater samples were acidified on line for 80 s. Dissolved iron (DFe, filtered seawater (0.4 μm), acidified and stored at pH 1.8) corresponded to 29 ± 4% of Fea (unfiltered seawater, acidified in line at pH 1.8 for 80 s). Most of Fea (71 ± 4%) was probably a fraction of total dissolvable iron (TDFe, unfiltered seawater, acidified and stored at pH 1.8). 相似文献
5.
Christine Dupuy Agathe Talarmin Hans J. Hartmann Daniel Delmas C. Courties Elise Marquis 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011
In order to investigate the parameters controlling the heterotrophic protists (nano-microzooplankton) on the continental shelf of the southern Bay of Biscay, plankton communities and their physico-chemical environment were studied 4 times in February, April, June and September–October 2004 at three stations in the euphotic zone in the Bay of Biscay. The abundance and carbon biomass of heterotrophic protists (ciliates, heterotrophic dinoflagellates and nanoflagellates) as well as all the others groups of plankton (picoplankton, nanophytoplankton, diatoms, autotrophic dinoflagellates, metazoan microzooplankton and mesozooplankton), the environmental parameters and the primary and bacteria production were evaluated at each sampling period. Microzooplankton grazing experiments were undertaken at the same time. Ciliates and heterotrophic dinoflagellates accounted for the main major component of nano- and microzooplankton communities in term of biomass. The total carbon biomass of heterotrophic protists was highest in spring and lowest at the end of summer. The development of heterotrophic protists started after a winter microphytoplankton bloom (principally large diatoms), the biomass was lower in June and was low in September (through inappropriate prey). The carbon requirement of microzooplankton ranged from 50 to more than 100% of daily primary, bacterial and nanoflagellate production. The heterotrophic protist community was predominantly constrained by bottom-up control in spring and at the end of summer via food availability and quality. 相似文献
6.
Jean-Gabriel Bréhéret Jean-Jacques Macaire Amélie Fleury Agathe Fourmont Ingeborg Soulié-Märsche 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(5):479-485
The autochthonous magnesian carbonates and the gypsum depicted in the Holocene deposits from the ‘Marais de Sarliève’ (Limagne, France) result from an alkaline, magnesian and sulphated composition of waters. This is also recorded by the composition of algal micro- and macrophytes. This may be explained by the dissolved fluxes from the Oligocene catchment and from a restriction. During the historical period, the lake evolved towards a lesser restriction. To cite this article: J.-G. Bréhéret et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003). 相似文献
7.
In 2001, we installed 11 new accelerometers in the lake-bed zone of Mexico City, which, together with the existing stations, form a 3D array of small aperture, with 15 surface and six borehole stations. This new array recorded the 10/08/2001 Guerrero event (M=6.1) and the 01/22/2003 Colima (M=7.6) event. The analysis of these two events showed that, for periods longer than 2.5 s, the dominant wavefield is composed of a fundamental mode of surface waves arriving from the epicenter and diffracted surface waves generated at the southern boundary of the Mexican Volcanic Belt. For periods shorter than 2.5 s, the resonance of the superficial clay layer becomes predominant. The wavefield consists in a superposition of diffracted waves propagating from the western part of the valley. Our results show that the ground motion is strongly amplified by the soft clay layer but its duration is controlled by the incident wavefield. 相似文献
8.
Agathe Fourmont Jean-Jacques Macaire Jean-Gabriel Bréhéret 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(3):471-490
Since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum, hydrology in Europe has been influenced by both climate changes, and since Neolithic
times, an increase in human activity. Paleohydrological reconstructions, especially from lake studies, can help identify the
respective impact of these two factors. The present work focuses on a lacustrine geosystem, the Sarliève paleolake in the
Massif Central (France), in an unusually dry, temperate area. The lake sediment geometry (core drillings, geotechnical methods),
and the geochemical and mineralogical characterization of the catchment rocks and soils, and of the lacustrine deposits, indicate
major variations in paleohydrology during the last 12,000 years as dated by 14C, palynology and tephrochronology. In addition, a model quantifying detrital versus biochemical lacustrine components was
developed to identify hydrological trends. The data show that the Sarliève area was characterized mainly by remarkably dry
conditions, hence sharpening the climatic trends at middle latitudes in Western Europe. Three main hydrological phases are
distinguished since the Late Glacial: (1) 13.7–7.5 ka cal BP, a dominant dry climate, with a peak at ca. 8 ka cal BP, leading
to a lowstand in water level and unusual mineral authigenesis, zeolite then dolomite, constituting up to 60% of the lacustrine
sediments; (2) 7.5 to ca. 5.3 ka cal BP, repeated short-duration hydrological alternations that could have been climate-driven:
lowstands in water level with up to 60% biochemical minerals versus higher water levels with <10% biochemical minerals; (3)
5.3 ka cal BP to the Middle Ages (i.e. beginning in the 5th century AD), a hydrological trend towards perennial high water
level, with mainly detrital sediments, probably linked to climate evolution, except periods of obvious human-driven drying
during the last two millennia. 相似文献
9.
Fabrice Hollender Cécile Cornou Aline Dechamp Kaveh Oghalaei Florence Renalier Emeline Maufroy Clément Burnouf Sylvette Thomassin Marc Wathelet Pierre-Yves Bard Vincent Boutin Clément Desbordes Isabelle Douste-Bacqué Laetitia Foundotos Cédric Guyonnet-Benaize Vincent Perron Julie Régnier Agathe Roullé Mickael Langlais Deborah Sicilia 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2337-2365
Data provided by accelerometric networks are important for seismic hazard assessment. The correct use of accelerometric signals is conditioned by the station site metadata quality (i.e., soil class, VS30, velocity profiles, and other relevant information that can help to quantify site effects). In France, the permanent accelerometric network consists of about 150 stations. Thirty-three of these stations in the southern half of France have been characterized, using surface-wave-based methods that allow derivation of velocity profiles from dispersion curves of surface waves. The computation of dispersion curves and their subsequent inversion in terms of shear-wave velocity profiles has allowed estimation of VS30 values and designation of soil classes, which include the corresponding uncertainties. From a methodological point of view, this survey leads to the following recommendations: (1) perform both active (multi-analysis surface waves) and passive (ambient vibration arrays) measurements to derive dispersion curves in a broadband frequency range; (2) perform active acquisitions for both vertical (Rayleigh wave) and horizontal (Love wave) polarities. Even when the logistic contexts are sometimes difficult, the use of surface-wave-based methods is suitable for station-site characterization, even on rock sites. In comparison with previous studies that have mainly estimated VS30 indirectly, the new values here are globally lower, but the EC8-A class sites remain numerous. However, even on rock sites, high frequency amplifications may affect accelerometric records, due to the shallow relatively softer layers. 相似文献
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