Applying Fractal Dimensions and Energy-Budget Analysis to Characterize Fracturing Processes During Magma Migration and Eruption: 2011–2012 El Hierro (Canary Islands) Submarine Eruption

The impossibility of observing magma migration inside the crust obliges us to rely on geophysical data and mathematical modelling to interpret precursors and to forecast volcanic eruptions. Of the geophysical signals that may be recorded before and during an eruption, deformation and seismicity are two of the most relevant as they are directly related to its dynamic. The final phase of the unrest episode that preceded the 2011–2012 eruption on El Hierro (Canary Islands) was characterized by local and accelerated deformation and seismic energy release indicating an increasing fracturing and a migration of the magma. Application of time varying fractal analysis to the seismic data and the characterization of the seismicity pattern and the strain and the stress rates allow us to identify different stages in the source mechanism and to infer the geometry of the path used by the magma and associated fluids to reach the Earth’s surface. The results obtained illustrate the relevance of such studies to understanding volcanic unrest and the causes that govern the initiation of volcanic eruptions.     

SANARIS Project: A Satellite Network for Natural Risk Monitoring

A new satellite communication system specificallydesigned for low-rate data applications has beendeveloped and prototyped. A validation project isproposed to install a pilot network to be operated for6 months. One of the target markets related tovolcanoes, has been selected, so that a group of usersis integrated in the project. A specific applicationfor this market will be developed regarding dataacquisition, processing, storage and dissemination todistant users. The feasibility of using the newsatellite system to provide a new Eutelsat service forlow-rate data applications, will be evaluated from theperformance of the pilot network. The system ofautomatic acquisition, field storage and communicationwith the local control center is already functioning,as well as the circulation of information viaInternet. The development of the application andtransmission via satellite to distant users is stillin an evaluation phase for the volcanoes of Timanfaya(Lanzarote, Canary Island), Vesuvius (Naples) and SeteCidades Caldera (Sao Miguel, Azores Islands).     

Zonation of the main volcanic hazards (lava flows and ash fall) in Tenerife, Canary Islands. A proposal for a surveillance network

The island of Tenerife is volcanically complex, and its eruptive history predominantly reflects the processes and products of two different eruptive styles: (1) non-explosive effusions of basaltic lavas from fissure vents mostly aligned along two ridges; and (2) less frequent but explosive salic eruptions from central vents associated with the Las Cañadas volcanic edifice and associated summit caldera. We have taken into account this fundamental distinction to develop a volcanic-hazards zonation (for lava flows and ash fall only) that includes: definition of the principal hazards; identification of the areas that have higher probability of containing emission centres; and numerical modelling of the vulnerable areas to be affected by volcanic hazards. Not only does the volcanic-hazards zonation map provide emergency-management officials with an updated assessment of the volcanic hazards, but it also represents a starting point for the preparation of a volcanic risk map for Tenerife. Finally, the hazards-zonation map also furnishes the basis for the design of a proposed volcano surveillance network.     

Climatic Change and Desert Vegetation Distribution: Assessing Thirty Years of Change in Southern Nevada's Mojave Desert

A major theme in physical geography and biogeography is understanding how vegetation changes across geographic gradients during climate change. We assess shifts in distributions of fifteen Mojave Desert plant species based on a 2008 resurvey of 103 vegetation transects that were established in 1979. We model changes in species distributions using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) with environmental and climate variables to predict probability of species’ occurrences. Climate during the ten-year period preceding the 2008 vegetation survey was 1.5°C warmer and 3 cm per year of precipitation drier than the ten years preceding 1979. Species inhabiting the highest elevations and strongly correlated with precipitation displayed areal reductions from 1979 through 2008.     

Qualitative landslide susceptibility assessment by multicriteria analysis: A case study from San Antonio del Sur, Guantánamo, Cuba

Geomorphological information can be combined with decision-support tools to assess landslide hazard and risk. A heuristic model was applied to a rural municipality in eastern Cuba. The study is based on a terrain mapping units (TMU) map, generated at 1:50,000 scale by interpretation of aerial photos, satellite images and field data. Information describing 603 terrain units was collected in a database. Landslide areas were mapped in detail to classify the different failure types and parts. Three major landslide regions are recognized in the study area: coastal hills with rockfalls, shallow debris flows and old rotational rockslides denudational slopes in limestone, with very large deep-seated rockslides related to tectonic activity and the Sierra de Caujerí scarp, with large rockslides. The Caujerí scarp presents the highest hazard, with recent landslides and various signs of active processes. The different landforms and the causative factors for landslides were analyzed and used to develop the heuristic model. The model is based on weights assigned by expert judgment and organized in a number of components such as slope angle, internal relief, slope shape, geological formation, active faults, distance to drainage, distance to springs, geomorphological subunits and existing landslide zones. From these variables a hierarchical heuristic model was applied in which three levels of weights were designed for classes, variables, and criteria. The model combines all weights into a single hazard value for each pixel of the landslide hazard map. The hazard map was then divided by two scales, one with three classes for disaster managers and one with 10 detailed hazard classes for technical staff. The range of weight values and the number of existing landslides is registered for each class. The resulting increasing landslide density with higher hazard classes indicates that the output map is reliable. The landslide hazard map was used in combination with existing information on buildings and infrastructure to prepare a qualitative risk map. The complete lack of historical landslide information and geotechnical data precludes the development of quantitative deterministic or probabilistic models.     

Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

This paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semi-quantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90 × 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system. Each indicator was processed, analysed and standardised according to its contribution to hazard and vulnerability. The indicators were weighted using direct, pairwise comparison and rank-ordering weighting methods, and weights were combined to obtain the final landslide risk index map. The results were analysed per physiographic region and administrative units at provincial and municipal levels. The Sierra Maestra mountain system was found to have the largest concentration of high landslide risk index values while the Nipe–Cristal–Baracoa system has the highest absolute values, although they are more dispersed. The results obtained allow designing an appropriated landslide risk mitigation plan at national level and to link the information to the national hurricane early warning system, allowing also warning and evacuation for landslide-prone areas.     

Post-fire plant recovery in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts of western North America

Increasing wildfire activity is one of the most pressing management concerns in arid lands of the American West. To examine post-fire recovery of perennial vegetation in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, I analyzed data systematically synthesized from the literature. Post-fire sprouting by desert perennials is generally limited but varies among species. For example, only 3–37% of Larrea tridentata sprouted compared to 64–86% of Yucca schidigera. Four of five studies measuring recovery of perennial cover reported close relationships (r² = 0.67–0.99) between time since fire (TSF) and cover. In fact, three studies measuring the longest TSF (≥37 years) found that cover had returned to within 10% cover of unburned areas within approximately 40 years. Conversely, post-fire species composition exhibited little convergence with unburned composition in five of six studies even 47 years after fire. Sphaeralcea ambigua, Gutierrezia spp., Achnatherum speciosum, Encelia spp., Hymenoclea salsola, and Baileya multiradiata had the highest burned:unburned abundance ratios, although overall post-fire community composition differed between the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. Analyzing the literature as a whole suggested some generalities (e.g., that perennial cover reestablishes faster than composition), but more work is required for improving specific knowledge about plant recovery among fires, sites, species, and climates.     

Using the Fisher–Shannon method to characterize continuous seismic signal during volcanic eruptions: application to 2011–2012 El Hierro (Canary Islands) eruption

We investigated the dynamics of the continuous seismic signal recorded before and during the 2011–2012 El Hierro eruption (Canary Islands) using the innovative approach of the Fisher–Shannon method, a suitable statistical tool for detecting dynamic changes in complex systems. Our findings identify dynamic changes in the seismic signal that can be correlated with different stress states of the magmatic setting and the plumbing system in the volcano at El Hierro. The results contribute to the understanding of the fracturing pattern in the crust during a new intrusion and eruption of an overpressurized batch of magma.     

Nb-Ta-minerals from the cap de creus pegmatite field,eastern Pyrenees: distribution and geochemical trends

Summary Internal structure and mineralogy facilitate distinction of four main pegmatite types at the eastern end of the Pyrenees. Three main trends in compositional variations in Nb-Ta-Sn-REE-Ti minerals have been established: a regional trend, with Ta/(Ta + Nb) ratio increasing towards the more evolved pegmatites, Mn/(Mn + Fe) being relatively low and increasing only slightly; a single-body trend, with similar enrichment toward the late pegmatite units; a single-crystal trend, with zoning related to both Ta/(Ta + Nb) and Mn/(Mn + Fe) ratios and a tendency toward Ta-enrichment in the late growth stages. The regional geochemical enrichment trends in the Mn/(Mn + Fe) ratios and Ta/(Ta + Nb) are those expected for a beryl-columbite pegmatite type. In a single pegmatite, the evolution depends on the simultaneous growth of other mineral species. Three factors seem to control the development of zoning in columbite-tantalite crystals: availability of Mn, Ta, Fe, Nb, significant differences in solubility between mineral group end members and re-equilibria with late pegmatite fluids.

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Nb-Ta-Minerale aus dem Pegmatit-Feld vom Cap de Creus, östliche Pyrenäen: Verteilung und geochemische Trends

Zusammenfassung Am Ostrand der Pyrenäen können anhand des inneren Aufbaus und der Mineralogie vier Haupttypen von Pegmatiten unterschieden werden. Die Zusammensetzungen von Nb-Ta-Sn-SEE-Ti-Mineralen folgen drei Haupttrends: einem regionalen Trend, bei dem das Verhältnis Ta/(Ta + Nb) zu den höher entwickelten Pegmatiten hin zunimmt, während Mn/(Mn + Fe) relativ niedrig ist und nur leicht zunimmt; einem lokalen (auf das jeweilige Vorkommen beschränkten) Trend mit einer ähnlichen Anreicherung zu den spätpegmatitischen Einheiten hin; einem auf Einzelkristalle bezogenen Trend mit Zonierung in bezug auf die Verhältnisse Ta/(Ta + Nb) und Mn/(Mn + Fe) und einer Tendenz zur T a-Anreicherung in den späten Wachstumsphasen. Die regionalen geochemischen Anreicherungstrends in den Mn/(Mn + Fe)- und Ta/(Ta + Nb)-Verhältnissen entsprechen jenen, wie sie für den Beryll-Columbit-Pegmatit-Typ erwartet werden. In einem einzelnen Pegmatit hängt die Entwicklung vom gleichzeitigen Wachstum anderer Mineral-Spezies ab. Drei Faktoren scheinen die Ausbildung einer Zonierung in Columbit-Tantalit-Kristallen zu kontrollieren: das Angebot an Mn, Ta, Fe und Nb, deutliche Unterschiede in der Löslichkeit der Endglieder von Mineralgruppen und die Iteequilibrierung mit spätpegmatitischen Lösungen.

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With 6 Figures