用模式识别方法研究强震发生的动力因子

用模式识别方法研究了大地震的发生时间与中等地震活动性、太阳活动水平、地球自转之间的关系.由模式识别所得的性质提出,大地震前中等地震活动达到一定水平是大地震可能发生的重要性质.而太阳活动极值前后及自转加速度变化较大时段可能触发大地震.     

黄海6.2级地震磁效应h

继取得1979年7月9日江苏溧阳6.0级地震磁异常之后,1984年5月21日在江苏黄海勿南沙Ms6.2地震前,在距震中70公里的东台县弶港,110公里的海安和130公里的射阳地磁台又观测到震前垂直分量的磁异常.其中弶港、海安为正异常,射阳为负异常.本文根据祁贵仲的膨胀磁效应模式,粗略地进行了计算,结果基本一致.本文认为,在低纬度地区用较密集的垂直分量台网来捕捉地震磁异常有可能改善地磁方法预报地震的效果.     

Changes of the cosmic-ray mass composition in the 10–10 eV energy range

Data taken with ten Cosmic Ray Tracking (CRT) detectors and the HEGRA air-shower array on La Palma, Canary Islands, have been analysed to investigate changes of the cosmic ay mass composition at the ‘knee’ of the cosmic-ray flux spectrum near 10¹⁵ eV energy. The analysis is based on the angular distributions of particles in air showers. HEGRA data provided the shower size, direction, and core position and CRT data the particle track information. It is shown that the angular distribution of muons in air showers is sensitive to the composition over a wide range of shower sizes and, thus, primary cosmic-ray energies with little systematic uncertainties. Results can be easily expressed in terms of ln A of primary cosmic rays. In the lower part of the energy range covered, we have considerable overlap with direct composition measurements by the JACEE collaboration and find compatible results in the observed rise of ln A. Above about 10¹⁵ eV energy we find no or at most a slow further rise of ln A. Simple cosmic-ray composition models are presented which are fully consistent with our results as well as the JACEE flux and composition measurements and the flux measurements of the Tibet ASγ collaboration. Minimal three-parameter composition models defined by the same power-law slope of all elements below the knee and a common change in slope at a fixed rigidity are inconsistent with these data.     

The response of ionospheric convection in the polar cap to substorm activity

We report multi-instrument observations during an isolated substorm on 17 October 1989. The EISCAT radar operated in the SP-UK-POLI mode measuring ionospheric convection at latitudes 71°-78°. SAMNET and the EISCAT Magnetometer Cross provide information on the timing of substorm expansion phase onset and subsequent intensifications, as well as the location of the field aligned and ionospheric currents associated with the substorm current wedge. IMP-8 magnetic field data are also included. Evidence of a substorm growth phase is provided by the equatorward motion of a flow reversal boundary across the EISCAT radar field of view at 2130 MLT, following a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We infer that the polar cap expanded as a result of the addition of open magnetic flux to the tail lobes during this interval. The flow reversal boundary, which is a lower limit to the polar cap boundary, reached an invariant latitude equatorward of 71° by the time of the expansion phase onset. A westward electrojet, centred at 65.4°, occurred at the onset of the expansion phase. This electrojet subsequently moved poleward to a maximum of 68.1° at 2000 UT and also widened. During the expansion phase, there is evidence of bursts of plasma flow which are spatially localised at longitudes within the substorm current wedge and which occurred well poleward of the westward electrojet. We conclude that the substorm onset region in the ionosphere, defined by the westward electrojet, mapped to a part of the tail radially earthward of the boundary between open and closed magnetic flux, the “distant” neutral line. Thus the substorm was not initiated at the distant neutral line, although there is evidence that it remained active during the expansion phase. It is not obvious whether the electrojet mapped to a near-Earth neutral line, but at its most poleward, the expanded electrojet does not reach the estimated latitude of the polar cap boundary.     

2003年11月超强磁暴热层大气密度扰动及其与焦耳加热和环电流指数的关系——CHAMP卫星观测

本文利用CHAMP卫星加速度仪测量数据,计算和分析2003年11月20～21日大磁暴期间大气质量密度扰动的全球分布特征;研究暴时变化与极区大尺度对流引起的全球焦耳加热总功率及环电流指数SYM-H之间的关系.结果表明,磁暴期间400 km高度上热层大气质量密度大幅度上升, NRLMSISE-00模式预测值与此相比有很大差别;暴时大气密度的增大存在昼/夜半球不对称性：白天强于夜晚,且白天随纬度的分布呈现出比较复杂的图像,在赤道附近和南半球中低纬区（10°N ～50°S）大气密度增大较强,并呈双峰分布,两个峰分别位于0°和45°S,另外在极区也出现大气密度扰动的局部极大,而在夜晚,大气密度变化南北半球比较对称,在赤道低纬区大气密度增大较强;互相关分析表明,中低纬区大气密度变化滞后于全球焦耳加热总功率3～7 h,滞后于环电流指数（SYM-H）0～3 h,与二者存在很强的相关,表明极区焦耳加热和赤道环电流过程对暴时热层大气密度扰动有重要影响.     

Granulometric and chemical composition of the Sava River sediments upstream and downstream of the Krsko nuclear power plant

Total concentrations of 13 elements (K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Pb) in the size-fractionated Sava River sediments upstream and downstream of the Krsko nuclear power plant together with metal speciation within bulk sediment have been investigated. Trace metals generally increase with decreasing particle size, however, because of entrapment of organic matter in the 0.63–1 mm fraction, concentrations in the coarser sediment fraction are higher than expected. Exchangeable Pb, Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr and Fe are generally found to represent a negligible fraction of the total metal concentration of the bulk sediment. Seasonal variations of the Pb, Zn and Cu concentrations in the <0.5 mm fraction reflect decreased values during the spring period. Heavy metal concentrations in the 2003 waste water discharges from the Krsko nuclear power plant released into the Sava River were much lower than their maximum allowed values. Combined rubidium and organic matter normalization of the Zn, Pb and Cu concentrations, which was applied on the minus 0.063 mm fraction, indicated three potential sources of contaminants.     

Westward moving dynamic substorm features observed with the IMAGE magnetometer network and other ground-based instruments

We present the ground signatures of dynamic substorm features with particular emphasis on the event interpretation capabilities provided by the IMAGE magnetometer network. This array covers the high latitudes from the sub-auroral to the cusp/cleft region. An isolated substorm on 11 Oct. 1993 during the late evening hours exhibited many of well-known features such as the Harang discontinuity, westward travelling surge and poleward leap, but also discrete auroral forms, known as auroral streamers, appeared propagating westward along the centre of the electrojet. Besides the magnetic field measurements, there were auroral observations and plasma flow and conductivity measurements obtained by EISCAT. The data of all three sets of instruments are consistent with the notion of upward field-aligned currents associated with the moving auroral patches. A detailed analysis of the electro-dynamic parameters in the ionosphere, however, reveals that they do not agree with the expectations resulting from commonly used simplifying approximations. For example, the westward moving auroral streamers which are associated with field-aligned current filaments, are not collocated with the centres of equivalent current vortices. Furthermore, there is a clear discrepancy between the measured plasma flow direction and the obtained equivalent current direction. All this suggests that steep conductivity gradients are associated with the transient auroral forms. Also self-induction effects in the ionosphere may play a role for the orientation of the plasma flows. This study stresses the importance of multi-instrument observation for a reliable interpretation of dynamic auroral processes.     

Response time of the high-latitude dayside ionosphere to sudden changes in the north-south component of the IMF

The time scale of the response of the high-latitude dayside ionospheric flow to changes in the North-South component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been investigated by examining the time delays between corresponding sudden changes. Approximately 40 h of simultaneous IMF and ionospheric flow data have been examined, obtained by the AMPTE-UKS and -IRM spacecraft and the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, respectively, in which 20 corresponding sudden changes have been identified. Ten of these changes were associated with southward turnings of the IMF, and 10 with northward turnings. It has been found that the corresponding flow changes occurred simultaneously over the whole of the “Polar” field-of-view, extending more than 2° in invariant latitude, and that the ionospheric response delay following northward turnings is the same as that following southward turnings, though the form of the response is different in the two cases. The shortest response time, 5.5 ± 3.2 min, is found in the early- to mid-afternoon sector, increasing to 9.5 ± 3.0 min in the mid-morning sector, and to 9.5 ± 3.1 min near to dusk. These times represent the delays in the appearance of perturbed flows in the “Polar” field-of-view following the arrival of IMF changes at the subsolar magnetopause. Overall, the results agree very well with those derived by Etemadi et al. (1988, Planet. Space Sci. 36, 471) from a general cross-correlation analysis of the IMF B_z and “Polar” beam-swinging vector flow data.     

Multi-instrument ground-based observations of a travelling convection vortices event

A coordinated ground-based observational campaign using the IMAGE magnetometer network, EISCAT radars and optical instruments on Svalbard has made possible detailed studies of a travelling convection vortices (TCV) event on 6 January 1992. Combining the data from these facilities allows us to draw a very detailed picture of the features and dynamics of this TCV event. On the way from the noon to the drawn meridian, the vortices went through a remarkable development. The propagation velocity in the ionosphere increased from 2.5 to 7.4 km s⁻¹, and the orientation of the major axes of the vortices rotated from being almost parallel to the magnetic meridian near noon to essentially perpendicular at dawn. By combining electric fields obtained by EISCAT and ionospheric currents deduced from magnetic field recordings, conductivities associated with the vortices could be estimated. Contrary to expectations we found higher conductivities below the downward field aligned current (FAC) filament than below the upward directed. Unexpected results also emerged from the optical observations. For most of the time there were no discrete aurora at 557.7 nm associated with the TCVs. Only once did a discrete form appear at the foot of the upward FAC. This aurora subsequently expanded eastward and westward leaving its centre at the same longitude while the TCV continued to travel westward. Also we try to identify the source regions of TCVs in the magnetosphere and discuss possible generation mechanisms.