基于地理探测器的南京市住宅租金空间分异格局及驱动因素研究

以南京市“一主三副”住宅小区为研究单元,运用GIS中的渔网（Fishnet）分析和探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）对“一主三副”住宅租金的空间分布进行模拟和估计,并利用地理探测器模型从住宅小区的区位特征、建筑特征和邻里特征3个方面探究住宅租金空间分异的影响机制。结果表明：① 南京市住宅租金总体呈上升趋势,空间上表现出主城向副城递减的中心外围模式,住宅租金空间结构逐渐由单核向双核发展,且住宅租金存在显著的空间异质性;② 住宅租金呈现出明显的空间正相关性和区域集聚性,热点区自内城核心区至副城趋于弱化,冷热点空间格局呈圈层结构;③ 交通位势和中心位势是对一主三副住宅租金解释力最大的因素,商务配套、金融设施和住宅房龄的解释力次之,特征因素对主城副城租金的影响强度各异。     

Impact factors on distribution and characteristics of natural plant community in reclamation zones of Changjiang River estuary

To identify impact factors on the distribution and characters of natural plants community in reclamation area, with survey data from 67 plant quadrats in July 2009, soil properties data from 216 sampling points in April 2009, and TM (30 m) data in 2006, the composition and characteristics of natural plants community in different time of the Fengxian area in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary were analyzed with two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN), multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), detrended canonical correspondence analysis (DCCA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The results show that: 1) The plant communities in the reclaimed area are mainly mesophytes and helophytic-mesophytic transitional communities, showing a gradient distribution trend with the change in reclamation years. Species richness (MA), species diversity (H) and above-ground biomass also increase with the increase of reclamation years. Nevertheless, they appear to decline slightly in the middle and late reclamation period (> 30 years). 2) With the rise in land use levels, the changes in species richness and species diversity tend to increase at first and then decrease; species dominance (D), however, tends to decline; and above-ground biomass increases slightly. 3) The distribution of the plant community is mainly influenced by the following factors: land use levels (R = 0.55, p < 0.05), soil moisture (R = 0.53, p < 0.05), soil salinity (R = 0.43, p < 0.05) and reclamation time (R = 0.40, p < 0.05).     

Effect of reclamation time and land use on soil properties in Changjiang River Estuary,China

The objective of this study is to analyze soil physical and chemical properties,soil comprehensive functions and impact factors after different years of reclamation.Based on the survey data taken from 216 soil sampling points in the Fengxian Reclamation Area of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary,China in April 2009 and remotely sensed TM data in 2006,while by virtue of multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA),geo-statistical analysis (GA),prin-cipal component analysis (PCA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA),it was concluded that:1) With the in-crease in reclamation time,soil moisture,soil salinity,soil electric conductivity and soil particle size tended to decline,yet soil organic matter tended to increase.Soil available phosphorous tended to increase in the early reclamation period,yet it tended to decline after about 49 years of reclamation.Soil nitrate nitrogen,soil ammonia nitrogen and pH changed slightly in different reclamation years.Soil physical and chemical properties reached a steady state after about 30 years of reclamation.2) According to the results of PCA analysis,the weighted value (0.97 in total) that represents soil nutrient factors (soil nitrate nitrogen,soil organic matter,soil available phosphorous,soil ammonia nitrogen,pH and soil particle size) were higher than the weighted value (0.48 in total) of soil limiting factors (soil salinity,soil elec-tric conductivity and soil moisture).The higher the F value is,the better the soil quality is.3) Different land use types play different roles in the soil function maturity process,with farmlands providing the best contribution.4) Soil physi-cal and chemical properties in the reclamation area were mainly influenced by reclamation time,and then by land use types.The correlation (0.1905) of the composite index of soil function (F) with reclamation time was greater than that with land use types (-0.1161).     

基于基尼系数空间分解的江苏省经济发展差异分析

不平等性是区域研究的重点,空间集中作为衡量不平等性的重要手段,是非空间与空间属性的二维统一体。传统的研究仅仅关注了全局非空间上的不均衡性,而忽略了地理空间上的集聚特点,往往不利于识别地理属性的集中特点。引进基尼系数的空间分解这一概念,通过对其空间随机分布性的零假设采用蒙特卡罗方法进行检验,从而判定其分解形式是否内生衡量区域不平等与空间自相关的特性。以1978—2015年江苏省区域经济发展差异的演变进行案例分析,通过蒙特卡罗99次随机模拟检验后,将分解的非邻居项与Moran’s I值进行显著性检验,结果进一步证实了这一分解的有效性与简洁性,表明空间基尼系数可内生测度空间的集聚性与非空间的差异性。     

中国水资源“农转非”时空异质性及形成机制

借助重心迁移、面板分位数回归分析法研究2003—2015年中国省域水资源“农转非”的时空格局、过程及机制。研究表明：① 水资源“农转非”呈显著空间分异特征,自东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐递减,且北方地区总体低于南方地区。② 水资源“农转非”重心轨迹波动较大,2003—2008年受重庆、青海、云南的引擎拉动呈西南向移动,2008—2015年在西部省份水资源“农转非”减缓,以及辽宁、吉林、北京等水资源“农转非”提升的共同影响下,呈持续东北向迁移。③ 产业结构变动、市场化水平提高、人均水资源拥有量及生态环境改善是水资源“农转非”主要驱动力,水资源利用比较收益、经济发展水平及人口规模等因素则制约了非农用水占比的提升,城市化水平与农业有效节灌率在不同时段对不同等级地区的作用方向与强度呈相反态势。     

Major advances in studies of the physical geography and living environment of China during the past 70 years and future prospects

The natural environment provides material essentials for human survival and development. The characteristics,processes, regional differentiation and forcing mechanisms of the elements of the natural environment(e.g. geomorphology,climate, hydrology, soil, etc.) are the main objects of research in physical geography. China has a complex natural environment and huge regional differentiation and therefore it provides outstanding reserach opportunities in physical geography. This review summarizes the most important developments and the main contributions of research in the physical geography and human living environment in China during the past 70 years. The major topics addressed are the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the evolution of its cryosphere, the development of fluvial systems, the acidification of the vast arid region of the Asian interior, variations in the monsoon and westerly climate systems on multiple timescales, the development of lakes and wetlands, the watershed system model, soil erosion, past human-environment interactions, biogeography, and physical geographic zonality. After briefly introducing international research developments, we review the history of research in physical geography in China, focusing on the major achievements and major academic debates, and finally we summarize the status of current research and the future prospects. We propose that in the context of the national demand for the construction of an ecological civilization, we should make full use of the research findings of physical geography, and determine the patterns and mechanisms of natural environmental processes in order to continue to promote the continued contribution of physical geography to national development strategies, and to further contribute to the theory of physical geography from a global perspective.     

南海南部最近几十年珊瑚钙化趋势与大气CO2浓度升高和全球变暖的联系

本研究11个现代滨珊瑚年龄在16～ 49年之间,包括两个种属Porites lutea和P.labata,于2008年7～9月采自南海南部南沙群岛海域水深3～4m处.用数字图像技术和实测方法沿珊瑚骨骼主生长轴测量生长率、密度和钙化率.结果表明,自1993 ～ 2008年,11个珊瑚平均生长率为0.96±0.05cm/a,16年增加了10.77％,变化率0.67％/a;密度为1.17±0.03g/cm3,16年减小了6.92％,变化率为-0.43％/a;钙化率为1.13±0.05g/cm2·a,16年增加了2.69％,变化率为0.17％/a.标准差分析显示,密度是3个生长参数中最不易变化的参数,因此,钙化率变化主要取决于生长率.珊瑚3个生长参数的趋势变化为:多数珊瑚生长率和钙化率都增加而其密度减小,少数珊瑚3个生长参数都增加或都减小.线性相关分析显示,多数珊瑚生长率和钙化率与大气CO2浓度和温度正相关而其密度与之负相关,然而,少数珊瑚与之反相关或相关关系不明显.这些相关关系进一步揭示,过去50年,人类活动产生的温室气体增加引起南海表层温度升高使珊瑚呼吸作用增强,从而导致其生长率和钙化率增加而密度减小.而且,少数珊瑚对大气CO2浓度升高和全球增温显示的差异响应可能与珊瑚样品个体生长的差异和局地环境的影响有关.     

过去8Ma兰州盆地古温度、古降水和古高度的半定量估算

兰州盆地位于青藏高原与黄土高原过渡地带,晚新生代全球降温和青藏高原的构造隆升对这—地区的温度、降水和高程产生了显著的影响.利用红度温度和磁化率-降水转换函数并结合古生物、地层地貌资料对兰州盆地过去8Ma的温度、降水和高度的半定量重建,结果表明:8.3～3.5Ma兰州盆地气候较为暖湿,期间经历了3个阶段两次显著的降温和变干过程,年均温度从16.7±2.9℃降低到11.9±3.2℃,年均降水从1150±350mm减小至500±100mm,这一时期盆地的冷干化可能受到全球降温和高原隆升的双重影响,但盆地海拔可能一直维持在1000m以下;3.5～1.7Ma盆地经历了青藏运动的A,B和C三幕,形成了一级山麓剥蚀面,代表了兰州盆地演化的新高度,海拔可能达到了1400 ～1600m,年均温度变为6.0±2.5℃,年均降水为240±40mm;1.70 ～0.45Ma山麓剥蚀面海拔达到1791 ～1991m,年均温度和年均降水分别为4.7±3.8℃和145±135mm;0.45 ～0Ma期间青藏高原再次隆起使兰州盆地继续抬升,达到现今的高度,并最终形成了目前的地貌格局,年均温度为5.2±4.8℃,年均降水为363±237mm,现今的气候特征也由此形成.     

1978-2011年间中国区域消费水平的时空演变

区域消费水平是经济发展的重要动力。本文以1978-2011年间我国各省区的人均消费品零售额表征区域消费水平,在我国区域消费水平差异测度的基础上,对区域消费水平差异的时间序列值进行突变点检测,进而将我国区域消费水平变化划分为1978-1986年和1986-2011年2个阶段。通过利用传统马尔科夫链及空间马尔科夫链方法,分别构建人均消费水平的非空间和空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵,对1978-1986年与1986-2011年2个阶段的区域消费水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析。研究结果表明：（1）区域消费水平在2个研究时段内的变化均存在着“俱乐部趋同”现象,无论是低消费水平与高消费水平区域均沿着最初类型稳步演进。（2）区域消费水平变化受到来自邻域消费水平背景的影响,使得其趋同的过程在空间上不独立。（3）区域间消费水平相互作用呈现出显著的东西分异特征,东部地区多为区域自身消费水平与邻域消费水平同时向上转移的状态,西部地区多为向下转移的状态,而中部地区多为平稳分布,邻域消费水平的状态变化较大。     

中国城市流动人口房租收入比时空格局及驱动因素

针对2012～2016年中国城市不同职业流动人口房租收入比时空变动特征及驱动力的研究表明:①流动人口房租收入比整体上呈"东高西低,南高北低"分异态势,较高及以上等级房租收入比地市集中于东部沿海发达地区及中西部省会城市。②各职业房租收入比逐渐形成金字塔形结构,但职业间房租收入比差距较大。③东部地区流动人口房租收入比多呈向下和平稳混杂分布,中部地区呈向下、平稳和向上镶嵌分布,西部地区以平稳为主,向上转移为辅。④经济、人口、社会及预期因素对房租收入比的解释力依次降低,消费水平、租赁户比例、地产投资密度、人口吸引力及收入水平是影响房租收入比的关键因素。