Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty of ENSO-amplitude projections in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

There is a long-standing debate on how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude may change during the twenty-first century in response to global warming. Here we identify the sources of uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude projections in models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6), and quantify scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and uncertainty due to internal variability. The model projections exhibit a large spread, ranging from increasing standard deviation of up to 0.6 °C to diminishing standard deviation of up to − 0.4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century. The ensemble-mean ENSO amplitude change is close to zero. Internal variability is the main contributor to the uncertainty during the first three decades; model uncertainty dominates thereafter, while scenario uncertainty is relatively small throughout the twenty-first century. The total uncertainty increases from CMIP5 to CMIP6: while model uncertainty is reduced, scenario uncertainty is considerably increased. The models with “realistic” ENSO dynamics have been analyzed separately and categorized into models with too small, moderate and too large ENSO amplitude in comparison to instrumental observations. The smallest uncertainties are observed in the sub-ensemble exhibiting realistic ENSO dynamics and moderate ENSO amplitude. However, the global warming signal in ENSO-amplitude change is undetectable in all sub-ensembles. The zonal wind-SST feedback is identified as an important factor determining ENSO amplitude change: global warming signal in ENSO amplitude and zonal wind-SST feedback strength are highly correlated across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.

     

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and its relationship to ENSO in a partially coupled climate model

The variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is studied using a partially coupled climate model (PCCM) in which the ocean component is driven by observed monthly mean wind stress anomalies added to the monthly mean wind stress climatology from a fully coupled control run. The thermodynamic coupling between the atmospheric and oceanic components is the same as in the fully coupled model and, in particular, sea surface temperature (SST) is a fully prognostic variable. The results show that the PCCM simulates the observed SST variability remarkably well in the tropical and North Pacific and Indian Oceans. Analysis of the rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlation shows that the PCCM exhibits local air-sea coupling as in the fully coupled model and closer to what is seen in observations than is found in an atmospheric model driven by observed SST. An ensemble of experiments using the PCCM is analysed using a multivariate EOF analysis to identify the two major modes of variability of the EASM. The PCCM simulates the spatial pattern of the first two modes seen in the ERA40 reanalysis as well as part of the variability of the first principal component (correlation up to 0.5 for the model ensemble mean). Different from previous studies, the link between the first principal component and ENSO in the previous winter is found to be robust for the ensemble mean throughout the whole period of 1958–2001. Individual ensemble members nevertheless show the breakdown in the relationship before the 1980’s as seen in the observations.     

Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region

Recent studies show that mid-latitude SST variations over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension influence the atmospheric circulation. However, the impact of variations in SST in the Gulf Stream region on the atmosphere has been less studied. Understanding the atmospheric response to such variability can improve the climate predictability in the North Atlantic Sector. Here we use a relatively high resolution (～1°) Atmospheric General Circulation Model to investigate the mechanisms linking observed 5-year low-pass filtered SST variability in the Gulf Stream region and atmospheric variability, with focus on precipitation. Our results indicate that up to 70 % of local convective precipitation variability on these timescales can be explained by Gulf Stream SST variations. In this region, SST and convective precipitation are strongly correlated in both summer (r = 0.73) and winter (r = 0.55). A sensitivity experiment with a prescribed local warm SST anomaly in the Gulf Stream region confirms that local SST drives most of the precipitation variability over the Gulf Stream. Increased evaporation connected to the anomalous warm SST plays a crucial role in both seasons. In summer there is an enhanced local SLP minimum, a concentrated band of low level convergence, deep upward motion and enhanced precipitation. In winter we also get enhanced precipitation, but a direct connection to deep vertical upward motion is not found. Nearly all of the anomalous precipitation in winter is connected to passing atmospheric fronts. In summer the connection between precipitation and atmospheric fronts is weaker, but still important.     

A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100?years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000?years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.     

Investigation of Arsenotrophic Microbiome in Arsenic‐Affected Bangladesh Groundwater

Arsenotrophic bacteria contribute to the nutrient cycling in arsenic (As) affected groundwater. This study employed a culture‐independent and ‐dependent investigation of arsenotrophic microbiomes in As affected groundwater samples collected from Madhabpur, Sonatengra, and Union Porishod in Singair Upazila, Manikganj, Bangladesh. Total As contents, detected by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry (AAS) of the samples, were 47 µg/L (Madhabpur, SNGW‐1), 53 µg/L (Sonatengra, SNGW‐2), and 12 µg/L (Union porishod, SNGW‐3), whereas the control well (SNGW‐4; depths >150 m) showed As content of 6 µg/L. Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of the amplified 16S rRNA gene from As‐affected groundwater samples revealed the dominance of aerobic bacteria Pseudomonas within heterogeneous bacterial populations. DGGE of heterotrophic enrichments supplemented with arsenite [As (III)] for 4 weeks showed the dominance of Chryseobacterium, Flavobacterium, and Aquabacterium, whereas the dominant genera in that of autotrophic enrichments were Aeromonas, Acinetobacter, and Pseudomonas. Cultured bacteria retrieved from both autotrophic and heterotrophic enrichments were distinguished into nine genotypes belonging to Chryseobacterium, Acinetobacter, Escherichia, Pseudomonas, Stenotrophomonas, Janibacter, Staphylococcus, and Bacillus. They exhibited varying range of As(III) tolerance from 4 to 27 mM. As(III) transformation potential was confirmed within the isolates with oxidation rate as high as 0.143 mM/h for Pseudomonas sp. Sn 28. The arsenotrophic microbiome specifies their potential role in groundwater As‐cycling and their genetic information provide the scientific basis for As‐bioremediation.     

Hydrogeological typologies of the Indo-Gangetic basin alluvial aquifer,South Asia

The Indo-Gangetic aquifer is one of the world’s most important transboundary water resources, and the most heavily exploited aquifer in the world. To better understand the aquifer system, typologies have been characterized for the aquifer, which integrate existing datasets across the Indo-Gangetic catchment basin at a transboundary scale for the first time, and provide an alternative conceptualization of this aquifer system. Traditionally considered and mapped as a single homogenous aquifer of comparable aquifer properties and groundwater resource at a transboundary scale, the typologies illuminate significant spatial differences in recharge, permeability, storage, and groundwater chemistry across the aquifer system at this transboundary scale. These changes are shown to be systematic, concurrent with large-scale changes in sedimentology of the Pleistocene and Holocene alluvial aquifer, climate, and recent irrigation practices. Seven typologies of the aquifer are presented, each having a distinct set of challenges and opportunities for groundwater development and a different resilience to abstraction and climate change. The seven typologies are: (1) the piedmont margin, (2) the Upper Indus and Upper-Mid Ganges, (3) the Lower Ganges and Mid Brahmaputra, (4) the fluvially influenced deltaic area of the Bengal Basin, (5) the Middle Indus and Upper Ganges, (6) the Lower Indus, and (7) the marine-influenced deltaic areas.     

Macrobenthic community structure in the northern Saudi waters of the Gulf, 14 years after the 1991 oil spill

The 1991 Gulf oil spill heavily impacted the coastal areas of the Saudi waters of the Arabian Gulf and recent studies have indicated that even 15 years after the incident, macrobenthos had not completely recovered in the sheltered bays in the affected region such as, Manifa Bay. This study investigates the community conditions of macrobenthos in the open waters in one of the impacted areas, Al-Khafji waters, about 14 years after the spill. Diversity measures and community structure analyses indicate a healthy status of polychaete communities. The BOPA index reveals that oil sensitive amphipods were recolonized in the study area. This confirms that the benthic communities of the oil spill impacted area had taken only <14 years to recover in the open waters of the impacted areas. The study also reveals the existence of three distinct polychaete communities along the depth and sediment gradients.