紫外线模式预报方法的研究和试验

文章介绍了在T106全球谱模式中应用大气辐射传输模式预报紫外线辐射(UVR)的方法,给出了试验运行的结果.UVR强度的划分考虑了到达地表的UVR通量.参考国内、外紫外线(UV)预报服务的经验,制定了5个日光暴露的级别、相应的紫外线指数(UVI)及防护措施.1999年9月起,国家气象中心已在NOTES网上每月不定期地展示UVR预报的一些结果,2000年9月起,在Cray-C92业务操作系统上实施了连续的试验运行.     

北极巴罗Elson湖过去450年气候与环境变化记录

北极阿拉斯加巴罗地区Ｅｌｓｏｎ湖长６０ｃｍＡＢ—６７钻孔岩芯提供了过去４５０年连续的高分辨环境变化记录。综合分析２１０Ｐｂ测年、沉积物粒度、有机质、化学元素和微体古生物化石等资料，一致反映出巴罗地区过去４５０年的气候、环境变化过程存在如下３个阶段：１）大约１５４０～１７４０年，为低海面寒冷时期；２）１７４０～１８２７年，为气候转暖－海侵过渡时期；３）１８２７年至今，为继续海侵－气候波动变暖时期。其中１８００年前后和１９４０年前后，气温较高。１９２１～１９９３年巴罗的气温记录说明，北极地区气温不仅有明显的１０ａ和６０ａ周期变化，而且年平均温度变幅极大，达４．５℃。显示极地气候变化特别强烈并不反映大幅度升温。近２０年来的变暖趋势是１８２７年以来自然的气候波动变暖的继续。     

阿尔金中段大通沟花岗岩体年代学、地球化学特征及其成因

出露于阿尔金中段的大通沟花岗岩体,岩性主要为二长花岗岩,LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为(353.7±1.1)Ma。SiO_2为74.5%~76.2%,Al_2O_3为12.62%~14.15%,(Na_2O+K_2O)为7.71%~8.29%,K_2O/Na_2O为0.9~1.22,A/CNK介于1.0~1.19之间,属高钾钙碱性系列的过铝质-强过铝质花岗岩。该岩石富集大离子亲石元素(LILE),亏损素Ba、Nb、Sr、P、Ti等高场强元素(HFSE);∑REE变化范围大(∑REE=85.7×10~(-6)~153.2×10~(-6),平均为111×10~(-6)),具有强烈的负Eu异常(δEu=0.03~0.59,平均0.33),LREE/HREE=3.52~11.9,轻稀土相对富集,轻重稀土分馏明显。微量元素地球化学特征表明,其源区物质主要来源于上地壳的变杂砂岩和变泥质岩类。锆石饱和温度计演算结果显示锆石的结晶温度为722~745℃(平均735℃),估算二长花岗岩源区的压力为0.8~1.6GPa。综合区域地质资料,阿尔金中段大通沟花岗岩体的形成与造山带根部块体的拆沉作用有关。     

Development and verification of the comprehensive model for physical properties of hydrate sediment

Natural gas hydrate is widely distributed all over the world and may be a potential resource in the near future, whereas hydrate dissociation during the development affects wellbore stability and drilling safety. However, the present modeling of hydrate reservoir parameters ignored the influence of effective stress and only considered the hydrate saturation. In this paper, a series of stress sensitivity experiments for the unconsolidated sandstone were carried out, and the influence of mean effective stress on physical parameters was obtained; a comprehensive model for the physical parameters of hydrate reservoir was developed subsequently. With the help of ABAQUS finite element software, the established comprehensive model was verified by the use of the wellbore stability numerical model of hydrate reservoir. The verification results show that ignoring the effect of mean effective stress on the parameters of hydrate formation aggravates the invasion of drilling fluid into the hydrate formation. Besides, ignoring the stress sensitivity of reservoir physical parameters will underestimate the wellbore instability during hydrate drilling, which will be a threat to the safety of gas hydrate drilling. At the end of the drilling operation, the maximum plastic strain of the model for considering and not considering stress sensitivity was 0.0145 and 0.0138, respectively. Therefore, the established comprehensive model will provide a theoretical support for accurately predicting the engineering geological disasters in hydrate development process.     

一种可考虑历史洪水的马氏权函数法研究

导出了非连序样本下,马氏权函数法(适用于P-Ⅲ型分布)参数估计公式.在不偏性、有效性的标准下,统计试验结果表明,推导的非连序样本下的计算公式是较为有效的,且拓宽了马氏权函数法的使用范围.     

阿拉斯加巴罗AB—67钻孔岩芯的沉积环境分析

巴罗ＡＢ－６７钻孔岩芯的４８个样品被进行了２５个项目的粒度分析和４４个项目的地球化学分析。本文对这些数据进行了Ｑ型因子分析,并得到了４个主因子。研究表明,这４个因子分别代表了沉积环境的四项指标,它们分别为沉积速率,降水,海平面和温度。从岩芯顶部５个样品与巴罗气象台观测记录研究了古温度和古降水的转换函数,从＾２１０Ｐｂ测年和几个环境事件确定了沉积速率的转换函数。     

浅谈基础性地理国情监测成果常见问题及质量控制方法

从近几年福建省基础性地理国情监测生产实践出发,分析基础性地理国情监测成果中关键性与频发性的问题,提出了行之有效的质量控制建议,为基础性地理国情常态化监测质量控制提供一定的借鉴.     

21cm波段太阳爆发中的精细结构

本文简要介绍了云南天文台新建立的21cm波段快速(不中断采样)记录系统,及使用该系统观测到的快速尖峰事件。系统得到的太阳分米波段爆发中不同时间尺度的精细结构与Stu-rroch等提出的太阳耀斑中能量释放的模式相一致。     

阿尔金南缘冰沟南组火山岩锆石U-Pb年龄及其前寒武纪构造演化意义

在阿尔金南缘玉苏普阿勒克塔格北侧出露的冰沟组火山岩为一套与滨浅海相细粒陆源碎屑岩和碳酸盐岩共生的中基性火山岩,主要岩石类型有蚀变熔结凝灰岩、安山质凝灰熔岩和强蚀变玄武安山岩。该火山岩作为Columbia超大陆裂解阶段的物质记录,对其年代学和产出的地质构造背景的探讨,有助于探讨阿尔金南缘前寒武纪构造演化过程。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb同位素年代学研究结果显示,强蚀变玄武安山岩样品具有两组锆石年龄,第一组年龄分别为944. 7±6. 4 Ma(n=8,MSWD=0. 057)和951. 2±6. 3 Ma(n=12,MSWD=0. 042),测点位于锆石震荡环带上,显示了典型的岩浆锆石的特征,代表火山岩的形成时代,属青白口纪早期;第二组年龄介于446±5～458±4Ma,与区域高压—超高压岩石的原岩的退变质时代(～450 Ma)一致,可能代表受该期陆壳深俯冲/折返事件改造。另外,228±6 Ma、229±4 Ma和130±1 Ma的年龄信息,可能代表火山岩还遭受了晚三叠世和早白垩世构造热事件改造。构造背景分析表明,该火山岩形成于板内裂谷环境,对应于Columbia超大陆裂解阶段的晚期,之后索尔库里群沉积盆地由拉张转换到汇聚的构造背景,转为Rodinia超大陆汇聚阶段。结合区域地质特征和该火山岩年龄信息,进一步制约了阿尔金南缘Columbia超大陆裂解和Rodinia超大陆汇聚的时限分别为945～1602 Ma和871～945 Ma。     

Simulating the effect of hydrate dissociation on wellhead stability during oil and gas development in deepwater

It is well known that methane hydrate has been identified as an alternative resource due to its massive reserves and clean property. However, hydrate dissociation during oil and gas development (OGD) process in deep water can affect the stability of subsea equipment and formation. Currently, there is a serious lack of studies over quantitative assessment on the effects of hydrate dissociation on wellhead stability. In order to solve this problem, ABAQUS finite element software was used to develop a model and to evaluate the behavior of wellhead caused by hydrate dissociation. The factors that affect the wellhead stability include dissociation range, depth of hydrate formation and mechanical properties of dissociated hydrate region. Based on these, series of simulations were carried out to determine the wellhead displacement. The results revealed that, continuous dissociation of hydrate in homogeneous and isotropic formations can causes the non-linear increment in vertical displacement of wellhead. The displacement of wellhead showed good agreement with the settlement of overlying formations under the same conditions. In addition, the shallower and thicker hydrate formation can aggravate the influence of hydrate dissociation on the wellhead stability. Further, it was observed that with the declining elastic modulus and Poisson’s ratio, the wellhead displacement increases. Hence, these findings not only confirm the effect of hydrate dissociation on the wellhead stability, but also lend support to the actions, such as cooling the drilling fluid, which can reduce the hydrate dissociation range and further make deepwater operations safer and more efficient.