Studies on storm surges and tides

Studies on storm surges and tides by the author can be classified into following four categories of works; (1) observational results on storm surges; (2) dynamics of storm surges including their numerical simulations; (3) methods of tidal analysis; and (4) long-period variations of sea level.As for the first subject, distributions of tidal deviations were investigated for some representative typhoons. Peak surges exceeding a definite value were also extracted from tidal records of Kôbe, Ôsaka and other ports. They were used to estimate return periods of storm surges, and to clarify the relations between storm surges and meteorological conditions.Dynamic studies on storm surges were concentrated especially to those produced by progressive meteorological disturbances. Numerical simulations by the primitive method started soon after the damage of Ise Bay Typhoon in 1959. Computations were made also for Ise Bay, Tôkyô Bay, Ôsaka Bay and other basins along the Japanese coast. Numerical simulations were also made for storm surges produced by Hurricane Carla striking the Coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 1961.Tidal analysis were also made by the author, and they included a new method based on the harmonic analysis of consecutive data for 355 days.Seasonal and long-term variations of sea level were also studied.     

Dynamical downscaling of future sea level change in the western North Pacific using ROMS

The future regional sea level (RSL) rise in the western North Pacific is investigated by dynamical downscaling with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an eddy-permitting resolution based on three global climate models—MIROC-ESM, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and GFDL-CM3—under the highest greenhouse-gas emission scenario. The historical run is forced by the air-sea fluxes calculated from Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment version 2 (COREv2) data. Three future runs—ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL—are forced with an atmospheric field constructed by adding the difference between the climate model parameters for the twenty-first and twentieth century to fields in the historical run. In all downscaling, the RSL rise along the eastern coast of Japan is generally half or less of the RSL rise maxima off the eastern coast. The projected regional (total) sea level rises along the Honshu coast during 2081–2100 relative to 1981–2000 are 19–25 (98–104), 6–15 (71–80), and 8–14 (80–86) cm in ROMS-MIROC, ROMS-CSIRO, and ROMS-GFDL, respectively. The discrepancies of the RSL rise along the Honshu coast between the climate models and downscaling are less than 10 cm. The RSL changes in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region in all downscaling simulations are related to the changes of KE (northward shift or intensification) with climate change.     

Crustal structure in and around the region of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake deduced from a wide-angle and refraction seismic exploration

Abstract The 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken Nanbu) earthquake (M_JMA 7.2, M_w 6.9) occurred on Jan. 17, 1995, at a depth of 17 km, beneath the areas of southern part of Hyogo prefecture and Awaji Island. To investigate P-wave velocity distribution and seismological characteristics in the aftershock area of this great earthquake, a wide-angle and refraction seismic exploration was carried out by the Research Group for Explosion Seismology (RGES) . The profile including 6 shot points and 205 observations was 135 km in length, extending from Keihoku, Northern Kyoto prefecture, through Kobe, to Seidan on Awaji Island. The charge of each shot was 350–700 kg. The P-wave velocity structure model showed a complicated sedimentary layer which is shallower than 2.5 km, a 2.5 km-thick basement layer whose velocity is 5.5 km/s, overlying the crystalline upper crust, and the boundary between the upper and lower crust.
Almost all aftershock hypocenters were located in the upper crust. However, the structure model suggests that the hypocenters of the main shock and some aftershock clusters were situated deeper than the boundary between the upper and lower crust. We found that the P-velocity in the upper crust beneath the northern part of Awaji Island is 5.64 km/s which is 3% lower than that of the surrounding area. The low-velocity zone coincides with the region where the high stress moment release was observed.     

Trace elements in skin of Dall's porpoises (Phocoenoides dalli) from the northern waters of Japan: an evaluation for utilization as non-lethal tracers

Concentrations of Fe, Zn, Cu, Se, Mn, Mo, Hg, Cd, Cr, Ag, Pb, Sr and V were determined in skins of Dall's porpoises (Phocoenoides dalli) of the Pacific coast truei-type population (PT population) (N=45), and the Sea of Japan-Okhotsk dalli-type population (JD population) (N=31) from the northern waters of Japan. Cutaneous Hg concentrations in both PT and JD populations were significantly correlated with age, indicating a possible alternative method of age estimation. A significant correlation was also noted between Hg concentrations in skin and liver, suggesting that biopsy samples of skin can provide a non-lethal surrogate for monitoring Hg contamination in this species. Trace element accumulation patterns differed strongly between PT and JD populations, when analyzed by principal component analysis, suggesting these patterns could be utilized as non-lethal tracers of population identification.     

Tectonic implications of new age data for the Meratus Complex of south Kalimantan, Indonesia

Cretaceous subduction complexes surround the southeastern margin of Sundaland in Indonesia. They are widely exposed in several localities, such as Bantimala (South Sulawesi), Karangsambung (Central Java) and Meratus (South Kalimantan).
The Meratus Complex of South Kalimantan consists mainly of mélange, chert, siliceous shale, limestone, basalt, ultramafic rocks and schists. The complex is uncomformably covered with Late Cretaceous sedimentary-volcanic formations, such as the Pitap and Haruyan Formations.
Well-preserved radiolarians were extracted from 14 samples of siliceous sedimentary rocks, and K–Ar age dating was performed on muscovite from 6 samples of schist of the Meratus Complex. The radiolarian assemblage from the chert of the complex is assigned to the early Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous. The K–Ar age data from schist range from 110 Ma to 180 Ma. Three samples from the Pitap Formation, which unconformably covers the Meratus Complex, yield Cretaceous radiolarians of Cenomanian or older.
These chronological data as well as field observation and petrology yield the following constraints on the tectonic setting of the Meratus Complex.
(1) The mélange of the Meratus Complex was caused by the subduction of an oceanic plate covered by radiolarian chert ranging in age from early Middle Jurassic to late Early Cretaceous.
(2) The Haruyan Schist of 110–119 Ma was affected by metamorphism of a high pressure–low temperature type caused by oceanic plate subduction. Some of the protoliths were high alluminous continental cover or margin sediments. Intermediate pressure type metamorphic rocks of 165 and 180 Ma were discovered for the first time along the northern margin of the Haruyan Schist.
(3) The Haruyan Formation, a product of submarine volcanism in an immature island arc setting, is locally contemporaneous with the formation of the mélange of the Meratus Complex.     

Synthesis of highly dense and fine-grained aggregates of mantle composites by vacuum sintering of nano-sized mineral powders

Synthesized mineral powders with particle size of <100 nm are vacuum sintered to obtain highly dense and fine-grained polycrystalline mantle composites: single phase aggregates of forsterite (iron-free), olivine (iron containing), enstatite and diopside; two-phase composites of forsterite + spinel and forsterite + periclase; and, three-phase composites of forsterite + enstatite + diopside. Nano-sized powders of colloidal SiO₂ and highly dispersed Mg(OH)₂ with particle size of ≤50 nm are used as chemical sources for MgO and SiO₂, which are common components for all of the aggregates. These powders are mixed with powders of CaCO₃, MgAl₂O_4, and Fe(CO₂CH₃)₂ to introduce mineral phases of diopside, spinel, and olivine to the aggregates, respectively. To synthesize highly dense composites through pressureless sintering, we find that calcined powders should be composed of particles that have: (1) fully or partially reacted to the desired minerals, (2) a size of <100 nm and (3) less propensity to coalesce. Such calcined powders are cold isostatically pressed and then vacuum sintered. The temperature and duration of the sintering process are tuned to achieve a balance between high density and fine grain size. Highly dense (i.e., porosity ≤1 vol%) polycrystalline mantle mineral composites with grain size of 0.3–1.1 μm are successfully synthesized with this method.     

Numerical forecasting of the time interval between successive M8 earthquakes along the Nankai Trough,southwest Japan,using ocean bottom cable network data

One possible approach to estimating the time interval between large-scale Tōnankai (Tōkai) and Nankai earthquakes on the Japan arc is sequential assimilation of crustal deformation data. We conducted numerical modeling of sequential assimilation using surface deformation calculated from earthquake generation cycle simulations along the Nankai Trough. To account for observation noise, we used measured ocean bottom pressure gauge data, excluding tidal modulation, from a station on the ocean bottom cable network Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Kumano basin. We used sequential importance sampling as our data assimilation method. We found that as the amount of data increased, the estimated time interval between the Tōnankai and Nankai earthquakes approached the “true” observed interval. In addition, the noise in the pressure gauge data was sufficiently small that simulated crustal deformation patterns could be distinguished for different time intervals.