Abrupt changes of runoff and sediment load in the lower reaches of the Yellow River,China

Determining abrupt changes in runoff and sediment load may not only enhance identification of the principal driving factors for such changes but also help establish effective countermeasures for serious water deficit by managers in the Yellow River basin. We used the Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression to determine trends and abrupt changes of runoff and sediment load during the period between 1950 and 2005, based on monthly hydrological data. Results show that runoff and sediment load decreased from 1950 to 2005, on annual or monthly time scales. Their changes are divided into three stages: fluctuating stage (1950–1970), slowly decreasing stage (1970–1980) and accelerated decreasing stage (1980–2005). The relationship between runoff and sediment load was most significant, and it can be expressed as a linear regression function. Precipitation was one of the most important climate factors affecting runoff before 1985, and the impact of human activities on runoff decrease grew strongly after 1985. Water balance analysis of the Yellow River basin indicates that natural climate change contributed about 55.3% and human activities about 44.7% to the runoff decrease after 1986.     

TRMM降水率资料的三维变分同化及其对"杜鹃"(0313)台风预报的改进

在GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System, 全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统的基础上, 用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子, 来同化TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, 热带降水监测计划)卫星反演的降水率资料.单点试验表明该方案通过调整背景场的水汽辐合和辐散的垂直结构, 使得同化后观测算子计算的降水率更接近实况.对台风 "杜鹃" (0313)的同     

皇山矿区铅锌多金属矿地质特征及成矿条件分析

利用阶段地质勘查成果,根据矿区所处区域地质位置,综合矿区地层、构造和岩浆岩发育情况,通过对矿体地质特征的描述、岩浆岩化学成分组成特征及成矿条件分析,指出矿区找矿标志,对今后寻找类似矿床具有一定的指导意义。     

对流天气系统自动站雨量资料同化对降雨预报的影响

利用GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统)三维变分同化系统,针对对流天气系统特点,用改进的郭晓岚对流参数化方案作为观测算子,同化广东省自动站记录的对流天气系统的雨量资料,并且与同化探空资料进行了比较.在雨带有明显改进的区域,分别同化这两种资料都可以调整大气低层水汽辐合增加(或辐散),对流层中下层增暖增湿(或变冷变干),从而增加(或减少)降水,表明降水的同化方案对初始场的调整在一定     

基于根轨迹法的海洋生态模型稳定性分析

本文对一类非线性海洋生态模型进行了稳定性分析,并通过广义根轨迹的分析得出,初始时刻营养盐的不同输入对系统稳定性的影响,并用相轨迹图加以验证。通过稳定性分析可知,当浮游植物的生长率和初始时刻营养盐的输入均大于浮游植物的死亡率和营养盐的流失时,系统存在稳定状态。若浮游植物的生长率和初始时刻营养盐的输入增大时,系统的动态性能减少,即系统会更快的趋于稳定状态。     

湿地公园建设的基本理论与应用探讨

探讨了科学发展观、和谐与可持续发展、生态恢复学、湿地文化与湿地美学、文化设计、保护利用提高、距离设计方法等在湿地公园生态文化建设、公园分区与建设布局、湿地安全保障、可持续经营、宣教能力建设中的具体应用。     

Environmental stochasticity promotes copper bioaccumulation and bioenergetic response in tilapia

Environmental change not only undergoes in mean environmental conditions but also in their degree of stochasticity. Changes in waterborne metal variability are often associated with altered disturbance regimes and temporal patterns of source availability. Here copper (Cu) was used as an example because Cu sulfate (CuSO₄) has been extensively used as a chemical tool to exterminate phytoplankton for controlling skin lesions and gill disease of fish in aquatic ecosystems. This study showed that increased variability of waterborne Cu concentrations strongly promotes a key process of biokinetics, bioaccumulation. In experimental tilapia populations, the mean growth cost coefficient in pulsed Cu exposures was 7 % lower than the control group. On the other hand, the double-pulse, constant low, and single-pulse scenarios had similar effect on biomass change (2.2–2.4 %). The greatest biomass change (~10 %) occurred where Cu concentrations were gradually increasing over time or at a constant high rate. Most importantly, this study demonstrated that chronic exposure of tilapia to a low Cu concentration rate that approximated a single large pulse of field-realistic levels damaged bioenergetic mechanisms and increased energy acquisition. This study also showed that interactions across multiple pulsed or fluctuating Cu exposures were involved in accumulation changes that could also be achieved by controlling pulse timing and duration. It can be concluded that increased metal variability can promote biokinetic and bioenergetic responses in fish; and that changes in environmental variability may interact with other global change processes and thereby substantially accelerate change in aquatic ecosystems.     

一种新型滞后-超前补偿器的设计与应用

传统的滞后-超前补偿器由1对实零点和1对实极点组成,校正效果往往不理想。本文先设计了1种由2对实零点和2对实极点组成的双重滞后-超前补偿器,随后在双重滞后-超前补偿器的基础上又设计了1种由2对共轭零点和2对共轭极点组成的复滞后-超前补偿器。同时给出了这3种补偿器模型之间的关系以及零极点之间的关系。理论研究及实际应用均表明本文设计的这2种补偿器较传统的补偿器在提高系统稳定性,增强系统抗干扰能力等方面有着各自的优势,而后者可以为模型设计提供更高的自由度。     

基于IGA算法的电阻率神经网络反演成像研究

为满足地球物理资料反演解释的高精度、快速、稳定的要求,本文结合免疫遗传算法寻优速度快和BP神经网络反演不依赖初始模型等优点,设计了一种将BP神经网络和免疫遗传算法进行有机结合的全局优化反演策略,并将该策略成功地应用于二维高密度电法数据反演.利用免疫遗传算法(Immune Genetic Algorithm,简称IGA)对神经网络的反演参数进行同步优化,提高了电阻率反演的精度.仿真和实验结果验证设计的全局优化反演策略取得了较好的效果,通过与线性反演方法和BP法以及遗传神经网络法等反演方法进行比较,得出该方法具有反演精度更高,反演时间更短等显著优势的结论.     

“珍珠”台风卫星红外通道亮温的数值模拟

热带地区云的覆盖率高, 卫星辐射资料特别是红外通道的数值模拟容易受到云的影响, 提高台风等热带天气系统卫星亮温资料的模拟能力, 有助于热带地区数值模式的检验以及提高卫星资料直接同化的水平。首先, 利用天气研究和预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 简称WRF) 对 “珍珠” 台风的三维气象场, 包括云结构特征, 进行了模拟, 并诊断分析了总云量、云顶气压等物理量; 然后, 结合快速辐射传输模式 (fast radiative transfer model for TOVS, 简称RTTOV) 8.7版对 “珍珠” 台风的高分辨率红外辐射探测仪3型 (High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder, 简称HIRS/3) 红外辐射亮温进行了模拟, 并且比较了有云和无云条件下的模拟结果。结果表明, 如果不考虑云的影响, RTTOV模式无法模拟出台风的结构特征; 结合三维云特征的模拟量, RTTOV模式可以较好地模拟出HIRS/3第4～10、13～19通道的辐射亮温。加入云结构特征对峰值能量高度在云层以下的红外通道的模拟有正面影响, 该方案既可以作为检验模式模拟的一种手段, 同时也表明红外资料在热带天气系统的资料同化领域具有潜在的应用能力。