Vertical velocities of European coastal sites derived from continuous GPS observations

Vertical velocities of 30 European permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) stations at or close to tide gauge sites are estimated from more than 3 years of continuous observations. The results of two different solution strategies are presented and compared. The first approach accumulates the daily free network normal equations, the second introduces all sets of daily ellipsoidal height estimates and their covariance matrix into a subsequent common least squares adjustment. In both solutions, mean station heights at a reference epoch, linear vertical velocities, height discontinuities and short period height offsets are estimated. The second approach solves in addition for periodic annual signals and for site-specific pressure loading coefficients. The vertical velocities range from +8 mm/year in the center of the Fennoscandian uplift area to –4 mm/year at a few subsiding locations. Apart from these extrema, most of the sites experience only very small vertical motions. The standard deviations from the second approach providing more realistic error estimates are well below 0.15 mm/year. Some specific data problems are discussed.     

WMO PROJECT ON INTERCOMPARISON OF CONCEPTUAL MODELS USED IN HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING

Abstract

The paper describes the development of a method which enables formulation of reservoir operation rules in a multi-reservoir water resources system. The method consists of three major steps: (1) development of a mathematical model of a multivariate (time and space) river flow process and generation of a synthetic input to the system, (2) development of a mathematical model of a water resources system and the simulation of its operation over the whole period of synthetic inflows (simulation coupled with one of the mathematical programming techniques), and (3) statistical analysis of the results of the simulation-optimization computations. Consecutive implementation of all steps leads to the formulation of the operation rules for all the reservoirs in the system.     

Creep in geodynamic processes

From the connnection between the homologous temperature T/T_m and the viscosity a stabilization effect at viscosities of about 10²³ poise is achieved for T/T_m = 0.6–0.7. This most probably is the steady-state temperature in the upper mantles of terrestrial planets of similar composition and should be a function of pressure only. Solid-state convection in the (larger) planets is connected with deviations of temperature and viscosity from their steady-state values. Viscosity values are obtained from the uplift data of deglaciated shield areas and from the temperature and strain-rate values of oceanic plate movements. Differences in the homologous temperature of 0.1 between both regions result in differences in viscosity by two orders of magnitude, assuming the crystal size of the material to be equal. The lower viscosity values for oceanic regions may explain the absence of seismicity and the generally faster spreading rates of purely oceanic plates. From the analysis of the uplift data two creep laws are indicated. Also the temperature (T = 0.7 T_m) and the crystal size in the upper mantle (0.1–1 cm) has been obtained from these data. Diffusion creep with a linear relationship between stress and strain rate seems to be important for small stresses, below one bar. This kind of creep apparently exists during the final stage of isostatic uplift and in most parts of the oceanic asthenospheric flow. Dislocation or power-law creep prefers larger stresses like those found in regions of fast uplift, in descending oceanic plates, active plate marginsand perhaps in the depth range of reverse flow.     

Life-cycle based design of mass dampers for the Chilean region and its application for the evaluation of the effectiveness of tuned liquid dampers with floating roof

The assessment of the effectiveness of mass dampers for the Chilean region within a multi-objective decision framework utilizing life-cycle performance criteria is considered in this paper. The implementation of this framework focuses here on the evaluation of the potential as a cost-effective protection device of a recently proposed liquid damper, called tuned liquid damper with floating roof (TLD-FR). The TLD-FR maintains the advantages of traditional tuned liquid dampers (TLDs), i.e. low cost, easy tuning, alternative use of water, while establishing a linear and generally more robust/predictable damper behavior (than TLDs) through the introduction of a floating roof. At the same time it suffers (like all other liquid dampers) from the fact that only a portion of the total mass contributes directly to the vibration suppression, reducing its potential effectiveness when compared to traditional tuned mass dampers. A life-cycle design approach is investigated here for assessing the compromise between these two features, i.e. reduced initial cost but also reduced effectiveness (and therefore higher cost from seismic losses), when evaluating the potential for TLD-FRs for the Chilean region. Leveraging the linear behavior of the TLD-FR a simple parameterization of the equations of motion is established, enabling the formulation of a design framework that beyond TLDs-FR is common for other type of linear mass dampers, something that supports a seamless comparison to them. This framework relies on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainties impacting the seismic performance. Quantification of this performance through time-history analysis is considered and the seismic hazard is described by a stochastic ground motion model that is calibrated to offer hazard-compatibility with ground motion prediction equations available for Chile. Two different criteria related to life-cycle performance are utilized in the design optimization, in an effort to support a comprehensive comparison between the examined devices. The first one, representing overall direct benefits, is the total life-cycle cost of the system, composed of the upfront device cost and the anticipated seismic losses over the lifetime of the structure. The second criterion, incorporating risk-averse concepts into the decision making, is related to consequences (repair cost) with a specific probability of exceedance over the lifetime of the structure. A multi-objective optimization is established and stochastic simulation is used to estimate all required risk measures. As an illustrative example, the performance of different mass dampers placed on a 21-story building in the Santiago area is examined.     

Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications

Abstract

The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin