Experimental activities that intentionally perturb the marine environment: Implications for the marine environmental protection and marine scientific research provisions of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

The global community's ability to assess the environmental effects of marine scientific research (MSR) as required by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea's (UNCLOS) marine environment provisions (MEP) is limited, as shown by experimental activities that intentionally manipulate the marine environment. Such work enhances knowledge of the ocean, but it may also have significant environmental effects. This growing use of the ocean as a laboratory has global scientific, environmental, legal and policy implications. Examined here is the relationship between the MSR and the MEP provisions of UNCLOS. International, science-driven guidelines are proposed.     

Origin and variability of resource-grade marine ferromanganese nodules and crusts in the Pacific Ocean: A review of biogeochemical and physical controls

Marine ferromanganese nodules and crusts containing Mn, Cu, Ni and Co in the most promising resource-grade concentrations and quantities, together with Fe and Zn (all elements of biogeochemical importance) are found far from land on the deep seafloor of the Pacific Ocean. The biogeochemical, chemical and physical mechanisms contributing to their formation, distribution, abundance and – for these six elements – variability in their concentrations in these deposits, are the main focus of the present review. The mechanisms addressed include biological productivity, sedimentation types and rates, bottom water characteristics, the Calcium Carbonate Compensation Depth, the depth and intensity of the oxygen minimum zone, and biogeochemical characteristics of the six focal elements. Particular attention is given to comparisons between the deposits found in the north and the south Pacific, in order to present an overarching view of our current understanding of the mechanisms that apply to both nodules and crusts in both oceanic hemispheres, including examination of the possible existence of a marine ferromanganese oxide continuum. The renewed interest in the commercial exploitation of these deposits has stimulated a welcome increase in scientific research that is essential to informing the public discourse on seabed mining. We briefly reflect on the work addressed in this review in that context.     

Altimetry-derived tide model for improved tide and water level forecasting along the European continental shelf

Ocean Dynamics - With the continued rise in global mean sea level, operational predictions of tidal height and total water levels have become crucial for accurate estimations and understanding of...     

Effects of self-attraction and loading at a regional scale: a test case for the Northwest European Shelf

The impact of the self-attraction and loading effect (SAL) in a regional 2D barotropic tidal model has been assessed, a term with acknowledged and well-understood importance for global models but omitted for boundary-forced, regional models, for which the implementation of SAL is non-trivial due to its non-local nature. In order to understand the impact of the lack of SAL effects in a regional scale, we have forced a regional model of the Northwest European Continental Shelf and the North Sea (continental shelf model (CSM)) with the SAL potential field derived from a global model (GTSM), in the form of a pressure field. Impacts have been studied in an uncalibrated setup and with only tidal forcing activated, in order to isolate effects. Additionally, the usually adopted simple SAL parameterization, in which the SAL contribution to the total tide is parameterized as a percentage of the barotropic pressure gradient (typically chosen 10%), is also implemented and compared to the results obtained with a full SAL computation. A significant impact on M2 representation is observed in the English Channel, Irish Sea and the west (UK East coast) and south (Belgian and Dutch Coast) of the North Sea, with an impact of up to 20 cm in vector difference terms. The impact of SAL translates into a consistent M2 amplitude and propagation speeds reduction throughout the domain. Results using the beta approximation, with an optimal domain-wide constant value of 1.5%, show a somewhat comparable impact in phase but opposite direction of the impact in amplitude, increasing amplitudes everywhere. In relative terms, both implementations lead to a reduction of the tidal representation error in comparison with the reference run without SAL, with the full SAL approach showing further impacted, improved results. Although the overprediction of tidal amplitudes and propagation speeds in the reference run might have additional sources like the lack of additional dissipative processes and non-considered bottom friction settings, results show an overall significant impact, most remarkable in tidal phases. After showing evidence of the SAL impact in regional models, the question of how to include this physical process in them in an efficient way arises, since SAL is a non-local effect and depends on the instantaneous water levels over the whole ocean, which is non-trivial to implement.     

Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction

In real-time operational coastal forecasting systems for the northwest European shelf, the representation accuracy of tide–surge models commonly suffers from insufficiently accurate tidal representation, especially in shallow near-shore areas with complex bathymetry and geometry. Therefore, in conventional operational systems, the surge component from numerical model simulations is used, while the harmonically predicted tide, accurately known from harmonic analysis of tide gauge measurements, is added to forecast the full water-level signal at tide gauge locations. Although there are errors associated with this so-called astronomical correction (e.g. because of the assumption of linearity of tide and surge), for current operational models, astronomical correction has nevertheless been shown to increase the representation accuracy of the full water-level signal. The simulated modulation of the surge through non-linear tide–surge interaction is affected by the poor representation of the tide signal in the tide–surge model, which astronomical correction does not improve. Furthermore, astronomical correction can only be applied to locations where the astronomic tide is known through a harmonic analysis of in situ measurements at tide gauge stations. This provides a strong motivation to improve both tide and surge representation of numerical models used in forecasting. In the present paper, we propose a new generation tide–surge model for the northwest European Shelf (DCSMv6). This is the first application on this scale in which the tidal representation is such that astronomical correction no longer improves the accuracy of the total water-level representation and where, consequently, the straightforward direct model forecasting of total water levels is better. The methodology applied to improve both tide and surge representation of the model is discussed, with emphasis on the use of satellite altimeter data and data assimilation techniques for reducing parameter uncertainty. Historic DCSMv6 model simulations are compared against shelf wide observations for a full calendar year. For a selection of stations, these results are compared to those with astronomical correction, which confirms that the tide representation in coastal regions has sufficient accuracy, and that forecasting total water levels directly yields superior results.     

Tidal flow forecasting using reduced rank square root filters

The Kalman filter algorithm can be used for many data assimilation problems. For large systems, that arise from discretizing partial differential equations, the standard algorithm has huge computational and storage requirements. This makes direct use infeasible for many applications. In addition numerical difficulties may arise if due to finite precision computations or approximations of the error covariance the requirement that the error covariance should be positive semi-definite is violated. In this paper an approximation to the Kalman filter algorithm is suggested that solves these problems for many applications. The algorithm is based on a reduced rank approximation of the error covariance using a square root factorization. The use of the factorization ensures that the error covariance matrix remains positive semi-definite at all times, while the smaller rank reduces the number of computations and storage requirements. The number of computations and storage required depend on the problem at hand, but will typically be orders of magnitude smaller than for the full Kalman filter without significant loss of accuracy. The algorithm is applied to a model based on a linearized version of the two-dimensional shallow water equations for the prediction of tides and storm surges. For non-linear models the reduced rank square root algorithm can be extended in a similar way as the extended Kalman filter approach. Moreover, by introducing a finite difference approximation to the Reduced Rank Square Root algorithm it is possible to prevent the use of a tangent linear model for the propagation of the error covariance, which poses a large implementational effort in case an extended kalman filter is used.     

Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation for tidal models

The Dutch continental shelf model (DCSM) is a shallow sea model of entire continental shelf which is used operationally in the Netherlands to forecast the storm surges in the North Sea. The forecasts are necessary to support the decision of the timely closure of the moveable storm surge barriers to protect the land. In this study, an automated model calibration method, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is implemented for tidal calibration of the DCSM. The method uses objective function evaluations to obtain the gradient approximations. The gradient approximation for the central difference method uses only two objective function evaluation independent of the number of parameters being optimized. The calibration parameter in this study is the model bathymetry. A number of calibration experiments is performed. The effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the final results as well as the computational costs required to produce these results. In doing so, comparison is made with a traditional steepest descent method and also with a newly developed proper orthogonal decomposition-based calibration method. The main findings are: (1) The SPSA method gives comparable results to steepest descent method with little computational cost. (2) The SPSA method with little computational cost can be used to estimate large number of parameters.     

Tidal dissipation from free drift sea ice in the Barents Sea assessed using GNSS beacon observations

Ocean Dynamics - One of the major challenges facing global hydrodynamic tidal models is the modelling of the interaction between sea ice and tides in high-latitude waters. Recent studies have shown...     

Observation impact analysis methods for storm surge forecasting systems

This paper presents a simple method for estimating the impact of assimilating individual or group of observations on forecast accuracy improvement. This method is derived from the nsemble-based observation impact analysis method of Liu and Kalnay (Q J R Meteorol Soc 134:1327–1335, 2008). The method described here is different in two ways from their method. Firstly, it uses a quadratic function of model-minus-observation residuals as a measure of forecast accuracy, instead of model-minus-analysis. Secondly, it simply makes use of time series of observations and the corresponding model output generated without data assimilation. These time series are usually available in an operational database. Hence, it is simple to implement. It can be used before any data assimilation is implemented. Therefore, it is useful as a design tool of a data assimilation system, namely for selecting which observations to assimilate. The method can also be used as a diagnostic tool, for example, to assess if all observation contributes positively to the accuracy improvement. The method is applicable for systems with stationary error process and fixed observing network. Using twin experiments with a simple one-dimensional advection model, the method is shown to work perfectly in an idealized situation. The method is used to evaluate the observation impact in the operational storm surge forecasting system based on the Dutch Continental Shelf Model version 5 (DCSMv5).     

MarinevsFluvial Suspended Matter in the Scheldt Estuary

The ratio of marine to fluvial suspended matter in the Scheldt Estuary was calculated by applying factor analysis to a data set of elemental concentrations. The data set consisted of 98 samples collected under various river discharge conditions. Each sample was analysed for the concentration of Cr, Pb, Fe, Mn, Ni, Co, Ba, Zn, Cu, Cd, S, Ca, Sr, Ag, Sn and Na. Five linearly independent processes were found to describe the variability of the elemental concentrations: (1) the supply of fluvial material to the mixing zone; (2) manganese oxidation in the transition area between the anoxic upper estuary and the oxic lower estuary; (3) the supply of marine material to the mixing zone; (4) a phytoplankton bloom in the lower estuary; and (5) the formation of insoluble metal sulphides in the anoxic high-turbidity zone. Scores of the first and third factor were used to calculate the ratio of marine to fluvial suspended matter in the mixing zone. Information on the origin of both the inorganic and organic fraction of suspended matter was obtained in this way.