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N.G. Granin I.B. Mizandrontsev V.V. Kozlov E.A. Tsvetova R.Yu. Gnatovskii V.V. Blinov I.A. Aslamov K.M. Kucher V.G. Ivanov A.A. Zhdanov 《Russian Geology and Geophysics》2018,59(11):1514-1525
Hydrophysical studies and mathematical modeling of ring structures during ice cover on Lake Baikal have shown that their existence at the stage of ice cover degradation is due to anticyclonic currents. Such currents can be generated as a result of local upwelling, which we associate with the rise of methane hydrates from the top layer of bottom sediments and their dissociation. Analysis of satellite images shows that the radii of ice rings range from 1300 to 2400 m, which is close to the baroclinic Rossby radius. The measured ice thicknesses in the area of the rings are in agreement with model calculations. Deep water renewal in Lake Baikal can also be associated with the rise of hydrates. 相似文献
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Penenko Vladimir Baklanov Alexander Tsvetova Elena Mahura Alexander 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(3):447-465
A concept of environmental forecasting based on a variational approach is discussed. The basic idea is to augment the existing
technology of modeling by a combination of direct and inverse methods. By this means, the scope of environmental studies can
be substantially enlarged. In the concept, mathematical models of processes and observation data subject to some uncertainties
are considered. The modeling system is derived from a specially formulated weak-constraint variational principle. A set of
algorithms for implementing the concept is presented. These are: algorithms for the solution of direct, adjoint, and inverse
problems; adjoint sensitivity algorithms; data assimilation procedures; etc. Methods of quantitative estimations of uncertainty
are of particular interest since uncertainty functions play a fundamental role for data assimilation, assessment of model
quality, and inverse problem solving. A scenario approach is an essential part of the concept. Some methods of orthogonal
decomposition of multi-dimensional phase spaces are used to reconstruct the hydrodynamic background fields from available
data and to include climatic data into long-term prognostic scenarios. Subspaces with informative bases are constructed to
use in deterministic or stochastic-deterministic scenarios for forecasting air quality and risk assessment. The results of
implementing example scenarios for the Siberian regions are presented. 相似文献
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