Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

6: Classification of VMS deposits: Lessons from the South Uralides

VMS deposits of the South Urals developed within the evolving Urals palaeo-ocean between Silurian and Late Devonian times. Arc-continent collision between Baltica and the Magnitogorsk Zone (arc) in the south-western Urals effectively terminated submarine volcanism in the Magnitogorsk Zone with which the bulk of the VMS deposits are associated. The majority of the Urals VMS deposits formed within volcanic-dominated sequences in deep seawater settings. Preservation of macro and micro vent fauna in the sulphide bodies is both testament to the seafloor setting for much of the sulphides but also the exceptional degree of preservation and lack of metamorphic overprint of the deposits and host rocks. The deposits in the Urals have previously been classified in terms of tectonic setting, host rock associations and metal ratios in line with recent tectono-stratigraphic classifications. In addition to these broad classes, it is clear that in a number of the Urals settings, an evolution of the host volcanic stratigraphy is accompanied by an associated change in the metal ratios of the VMS deposits, a situation previously discussed, for example, in the Noranda district of Canada.Two key structural settings are implicated in the South Urals. The first is seen in a preserved marginal allochthon west of the Main Urals Fault where early arc tholeiites host Cu–Zn mineralization in deposits including Yaman Kasy, which is host to the oldest macro vent fauna assembly known to science. The second tectonic setting for the South Urals VMS is the Magnitogorsk arc where study has highlighted the presence of a preserved early forearc assemblage, arc tholeiite to calc-alkaline sequences and rifted arc bimodal tholeiite sequences. The boninitc rocks of the forearc host Cu–(Zn) and Cu–Co VMS deposits, the latter hosted in fragments within the Main Urals Fault Zone (MUFZ) which marks the line of arc-continent collision in Late Devonian times. The arc tholeiites host Cu–Zn deposits with an evolution to more calc-alkaline felsic volcanic sequences matched with a change to Zn–Pb–Cu polymetallic deposits, often gold-rich. Large rifts in the arc sequence are filled by thick bimodal tholeiite sequences, themselves often showing an evolution to a more calc-alkaline nature. These thick bimodal sequences are host to the largest of the Cu–Zn VMS deposits.The exceptional degree of preservation in the Urals has permitted the identification of early seafloor clastic and hydrolytic modification (here termed halmyrolysis sensu lato) to the sulphide assemblages prior to diagenesis and this results in large-scale modification to the primary VMS body, resulting in distinctive morphological and mineralogical sub-types of sulphide body superimposed upon the tectonic association classification.It is proposed that a better classification of seafloor VMS systems is thus achievable using a three stage classification based on (a) tectonic (hence bulk volcanic chemistry) association, (b) local volcanic chemical evolution within a single edifice and (c) seafloor reworking and halmyrolysis.     

Paleontological records indicate the occurrence of open woodlands in a dry inland climate at the present-day Arctic coast in western Beringia during the Last Interglacial

Permafrost records, accessible at outcrops along the coast of Oyogos Yar at the Dmitry Laptev Strait, NE-Siberia, provide unique insights into the environmental history of Western Beringia during the Last Interglacial. The remains of terrestrial and freshwater organisms, including plants, coleopterans, chironomids, cladocerans, ostracods and molluscs, have been preserved in the frozen deposits of a shallow paleo-lake and indicate a boreal climate at the present-day arctic mainland coast during the Last Interglacial. Terrestrial beetle and plant remains suggest the former existence of open forest-tundra with larch (Larix dahurica), tree alder (Alnus incana), birch and alder shrubs (Duschekia fruticosa, Betula fruticosa, Betula divaricata, Betula nana), interspersed with patches of steppe and meadows. Consequently, the tree line was shifted to at least 270 km north of its current position. Aquatic organisms, such as chironomids, cladocerans, ostracods, molluscs and hydrophytes, indicate the formation of a shallow lake as the result of thermokarst processes. Steppe plants and beetles suggest low net precipitation. Littoral pioneer plants and chironomids indicate intense lake level fluctuations due to high evaporation. Many of the organisms are thermophilous, indicating a mean air temperature of the warmest month that was greater than 13 °C, which is above the minimum requirements for tree growth. These temperatures are in contrast to the modern values of less than 4 °C in the study area. The terrestrial and freshwater organism remains were found at a coastal exposure that was only 3.5 m above sea level and in a position where they should have been under sea during the Last Interglacial when the global sea level was 6–10 m higher than the current levels. The results suggest that during the last warm stage, the site was inland, and its modern coastal situation is the result of tectonic subsidence.     

Galactic cosmic ray variation influence on baric system dynamics at middle latitudes

Variations of atmospheric pressure in the North Atlantic region during Forbush decreases of galactic cosmic rays were investigated. A noticeable pressure growth with the maximum on the 3rd and 4th days after the Forbush decrease onsets was revealed over Scandinavia and the northern region of the European part of Russia. It was shown that the observed pressure growth was caused by the formation of blocking anticyclones in the region of the climatic Arctic front, as well as by the sharp slowing of the movement of North Atlantic cyclones. It was suggested that the particles that precipitate in the regions of the climatic Arctic and Polar fronts, with the minimum energies E～20–80 MeV and ～2–3 GeV, respectively, may influence the processes of cyclone and anticyclone formation and development at extratropical latitudes.     

Geochemical and microbiological characteristics of sediments near the Malenky mud volcano (Lake Baikal, Russia), with evidence of Archaea intermediate between the marine anaerobic methanotrophs ANME-2 and ANME-3

Detailed lithological, biogeochemical and molecular biological analyses of core sediments collected in 2002–2006 from the vicinity of the Malenky mud volcano, Lake Baikal, reveal considerable spatial variations in pore water chemical composition, with total concentrations of dissolved salts varying from 0.1 to 1.8‰. Values of methane δ¹³С in the sediments suggest a biogenic origin (δ¹³С_min. ?61.3‰, δ¹³С_max. ?72.9‰). Rates of sulphate reduction varied from 0.001 to 0.7 nmol cm^?3 day^?1, of autotrophic methanogenesis from 0.01 to 2.98 nmol CH₄ cm^?3 day^?1, and of anaerobic oxidation of methane from 0 to 12.3 nmol cm^?3 day^?1. These results indicate that methanogenic processes dominate in gas hydrate-bearing sediments of Lake Baikal. Based on clone libraries of 16S rRNA genes amplified with Bacteria- and Archaea-specific primers, investigation of microbial diversity in gas hydrate-bearing sediments revealed bacterial 16S rRNA clones classified as Deltaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, Chloroflexi and OP11. Archaeal clone sequences are related to the Crenarchaeota and Euryarchaeota. Baikal sequences of Archaea form a distinct cluster occupying an intermediate position between the marine groups ANME-2 and ANME-3 of anaerobic methanotrophs.     

Invertebrates of the relict steppe ecosystems of Beringia,and the reconstruction of Pleistocene landscapes

Studies of invertebrates from steppe patches in the tundra and taiga zones of Beringia provide additional evidence that these areas could be relict steppes. A number of insect species common to both modern relict steppes and fossil Beringian insect faunal assemblages have been found. These provide important information on the moisture and temperature preferences of some of the surviving members of Pleistocene steppe-tundra insect communities. The most significant species of West Beringian insects are weevils in the genus Stephanocleonus (Coleoptera, Curculionidae), indicators of thermophytic steppe, and the pill beetle Morychus viridis (Coleoptera, Byrrhidae), the indicator of hemicryophytic steppe. The East Beringian invertebrate population of relict steppe is substantially different. Fossil evidence suggests that biotic exchange between the two parts of Beringia was limited during the Pleistocene; populations of steppe insects did not move across the Bering Land Bridge (BLB), while tundra species had more flexibility. The tundra environment reconstructed for the Pleistocene BLB should have facilitated amphi-beringian distributions for most tundra invertebrate species, but apparently only a few species achieved this.     

Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F?=?90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2–60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5–120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2–60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a range of periods around 60 days, the coastal sea level in Southern California is coherent with the sea surface height (SSH) variability over the shelf break in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, more than with the coastal SSH at the same latitudes.