Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

辽宁盖县梁屯—矿洞沟碱性正长岩杂岩体的U—Pb和Sm—Nd年龄及其地质意义

辽宁梁屯 -矿洞沟杂岩体主要由辉石正长岩、霓辉正长岩和霓辉角闪正长岩等碱性岩石组成 ,具有全岩 Rb- Sr等时线年龄 186 6± 115 Ma和 ISr=0 .70 4 9的同位素特征 ,是我国目前报道的最古老的碱性正长岩类。本文报道了该岩体的锆石U- Pb和全岩 Sm- Nd同位素测试资料 ,获得了锆石 U- Pb同位素年龄为 185 7± 2 0 Ma、Sm- Nd等时年龄为 1787± 180 Ma、εNd(t) =- 4 .8～ - 5 .0的数据。它们反映出该杂岩体形成年龄的上限为 185 7± 2 0 Ma、下限不小于 1787± 180 Ma,来源于富集地幔物质。基于这些数据并结合区域地质资料分析 ,作者提出了华北地台北缘古元古宙存在有富集地幔储库 ,以及辽河群主体形成于 190 0 Ma以前的认识     

Generation of random waves in time-dependent extended mild-slope equations using a source function method

We develop techniques of numerical wave generation in the time-dependent extended mild-slope equations of Suh et al. [1997. Time-dependent equations for wave propagation on rapidly varying topography. Coastal Engineering 32, 91–117] and Lee et al. [2003. Extended mild-slope equation for random waves. Coastal Engineering 48, 277–287] for random waves using a source function method. Numerical results for both regular and irregular waves in one and two horizontal dimensions show that the wave heights and the frequency spectra are properly reproduced. The waves that pass through the wave generation region do not cause any numerical disturbances, showing usefulness of the source function method in avoiding re-reflection problems at the offshore boundary.     

Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP

This study assesses future climate change over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system—Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by two types of future climate scenarios produced by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HG2); the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report (AR5). Analyses for the current (1980–2005) climate are performed to evaluate the RMP’s ability to reproduce precipitation and temperature. Two different future (2006–2050) simulations are compared with the current climatology to investigate the climatic change over East Asia centered in Korea. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of precipitation and temperature. The spatial distribution of the simulated large-scale features and precipitation by the RMP is generally less reflective of current climatic conditions than that is given by the HG2, but their inter-annual variations in East Asia are better captured by the RMP. Furthermore, the RMP shows higher reproducibility of climate extremes including excessive heat wave and precipitation events over South Korea. In the future, strong warming is distinctly coupled with intensified monsoonal precipitation over East Asia. In particular, extreme weather conditions are increased and intensified over South Korea as follows: (1) The frequency of heat wave events with temperature greater than 30 °C is projected to increase by 131 and 111 % in the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 downscaling, relative to the current climate. (2) The RCP 8.5 downscaling shows the frequency and variability of heavy rainfall to increase by 24 and 31.5 %, respectively, while the statistics given by the RCP 4.5 downscaling are similar to those of the current climate.     

东天山伊吾二叠纪花岗质杂岩体的锆石定年、地球化学及其构造意义

伊吾花岗质杂岩体主要由二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩构成。锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年分析得到二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩的侵位年龄分别为284.6±1.4Ma和284.0±1.1Ma。结合地质证据,此年龄表明该杂岩体形成于碰撞之后的二叠纪早期挤压-伸展转折阶段。岩石学、地球化学和同位素等方面的对比研究表明这两种岩石为同一岩浆演化的产物。与二长花岗岩相比,碱长花岗岩表现为硅、碱的含量较高,而铝的含量较低;富Th、U、Nb、Ta,贫Sr、P、Ti、Sm;DI和Rb/Sr升高,Nb/Ta和Zr/Hf下降,从二长花岗岩到碱长花岗岩表现出连续分异演化的趋势。计算得到二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩的模式年龄(t_(DM))分别为693Ma和763Ma,ε_(Nd)(t)分别为+4.53和+4.64,(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr)_i分别为0.703858和0.703855,表现出高ε_(Nd)(t)低(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr)_i的特征。这些特征表明,伊吾岩体的岩浆来自新元古代时从亏损地幔分离出来的初生地壳源区。二长花岗岩岩浆是这种初生地壳岩浆演化的产物,而碱长花岗岩形成于二长花岗岩母岩浆经斜长石、磷灰石、钛铁氧化物、榍石、独居石、褐帘石和锆石等矿物分离结晶后的残留岩浆。     

Trend and Characteristics of Variation on the Runoff of the …

根据唐乃亥等有关台站的水文气象观测资料,对黄河上 唐乃亥以上流域的径注琢演变规律进行了分析探讨,并在此基础上用灰色拓扑、混合门限自回归及周期外延－逐步回归等数学模型对其未来的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,黄河上游唐乃亥以上流域径流目前正处于一个枯水段的底部,并且从现在超的今后若干年里将呈现一个波动状上升的变化趋势。     

Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.