Simulation of Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation Based on Data from Ground-Based Patrol Observations

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - We present a model for the propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) based on the interaction of CMEs with the solar wind through aerodynamic drag. The parameters of...     

Space Weather Parameters: Modeling and Prediction from the Data of Groundbased Observations of Solar Activity

We consider the prospects for developing a forecast system for space weather (SPW) parameters with the use of home facilities for groundbased observations of solar activity. The space weather forecast can be conventionally divided into three components: (i) the prediction of recurrent, slowly changing events connected with the topology of the large-scale magnetic field, (ii) the estimation of fluxes of UV and high-energy radiation, and (iii) the observation of high-speed phenomena, such as solar flares and eruption processes, and the prediction of their consequences at the the Earth’s orbit. At present, to predict recurrent events, data from regular observations of the large-scale field of the Sun by the solar telescope–magnetographs for operative (realtime) prediction (STOP) are effectively used. To estimate high-energy fluxes, to register eruption events, and to estimate their geoefficiency, data from the patrol optical telescope–spectrographs may be used. Patrol telescopes operate in automatic mode and register the processes with an interval of approximately one minute. To detect eruption processes, we propose a method based on the difference between the intensity values in the wings of chromospheric spectral lines. The results of the use of the observational complex of the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station for the SW forecast are considered in the paper.     

On the normal mode instability of modons and Wu-Verkley waves

Abstract

The normal mode instability of steady Wu-Verkley (1993) wave and modons by Verkley (1984, 1987, 1990) and Neven (1992) is considered. All these flows are solutions to the vorticity equation governing the motion of an ideal incompressible fluid on a rotating sphere. A conservation law for infinitesimal perturbations to each solution is derived and used to obtain a necessary condition for its exponential instability. By these conditions, Fjörtoft's (1953) average spectral number of the amplitude of an unstable mode must be equal to a specific number that depends on the degree of the solution in its inner and outer regions as well as on spectral distribution of the mode energy in these regions. Some properties of the conditions for different types of modons are discussed. The maximum growth (and decay) rate of the modes is estimated, and the orthogonality of the amplitude of each unstable, decaying, or non-stationary mode to the basic solution is shown in the energy inner product.

The new instability conditions confine the unstable disturbances of the WV wave and modon to a hypersurface in the perturbation space and allow interpretation of their energy structure. They are also useful both in estimating the maximum growth rate of unstable modes and in testing the numerical algorithms designed for the linear stability study.