Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Experimental validation of the wavefield transform of electromagnetic fields

The wavefield transform is a mathematical technique for transforming low-frequency electromagnetic (EM) signals to a non-diffusive wave domain. The ray approximation is valid in the transform space and this makes traveltime tomography for 3D mapping of the electrical conductivity distribution in the subsurface possible. The transform, however, imposes stringent frequency bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratio requirements on the data. Here we discuss a laboratory scale experiment designed to collect transform quality EM data, and to demonstrate the practical feasibility of transforming these data to the wavefield domain.
We have used the scalable nature of EM fields to design a time-domain experiment using graphite blocks to simulate realistic field conditions while leaving the time scale undisturbed. The spatial dimensions have been scaled down by a factor of a thousand by scaling conductivity up by a factor of a million. The graphite blocks have two holes drilled into them to carry out cross-well and borehole-to-surface experiments. Steel sheets have been inserted between the blocks to simulate a conductive layer.
Our experiments show that accurate EM data can be recorded on a laboratory scale model even when the scaling of some features, such as drill-hole diameters, is not maintained. More importantly, the time-domain EM data recorded in cross-well and surface-to-borehole modes can be usefully and accurately transformed to the wavefield domain. The observed wavefield propagation delay is proportional to the direct distance between the transmitter and receiver in a homogeneous medium. In a layered medium, data accuracy is reduced and, hence, our results are not so conclusive. On the basis of the experimental results we conclude that the wavefield transform could constitute a valid approach to the interpretation of accurate, undistorted time-domain data if further improvement in the transform can be realized.     

格尔木地磁台观测环境测试与分析

通过实验测试和计算，分析了高压输出电线等干扰源对格尔木地磁台观测环境的影响，进一步对格尔木地磁台观测环境现状，及今后观测环境保护工作的要点进行了综合分析讨论。     

气候变暖对刚察县采暖气象指标的影响及节能潜力分析

利用青海省刚察县1961—2008年逐日气温资料,运用数理统计等方法,分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明,1961—2008年间,刚察县采暖期平均气温上升,负积温减少,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖长度明显缩短;采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切,采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势,特别是1994年气温突变后,下降趋势更加明显,冬季寒冷程度有所减弱,能耗需求量减小;该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代,偏多年份以70—80年代为主,偏少年份出现在80年代中期以后,主要集中在2000年以后。气候变暖所致采暖节能率为7%,这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。     

Hydrological characteristics of karstic groundwater in the northeast Viet Nam as studied by isotopic techniques

The stable water isotopic composition (δ²H and δ¹⁸Ο), tritium (³H) activity, dissolved organic carbon, alkalinity, as well as the composition of carbon 13 (δ¹³C) in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of 36 water samples taken from 16 resurgences in the northeast provinces of Viet Nam in the dry (Mar 2008) and rainy (June 2008) seasons were analyzed to elucidate hydrological characteristics of the karstic aquifers in the area. The stable water isotopic composition of the water samples collected clearly demonstrated that the karstic groundwater in the region was recharged from the local meteorological water. The tritium activity in the samples was found to be in between 3 and 4 TU, falling in the range of the ³H activity in the local precipitation and thus meaning that the traveling of recharge water to the resurgences was very short. Concentrated and diffuse allogenic recharges seem to be important sources of karstic groundwater in the study region. Water in the karstic aquifers could be classified into three types as: (a) water from karstic areas with dense vegetation cover that causes DIC be depleted in carbon 13 (¹³δ<?12‰ vs. Pee Dee Belemnite standard of Vienna, VPDB); (b) water from karstic areas with poor vegetation cover that originates DIC with carbon 13 composition ranging from ?11 to ?12‰; and (c) surface water from lakes, springs and rivers that has DIC with enriched carbon 13 (δ¹³C >?10‰). This implies that there are several sources of carbon dioxide contributing to the DIC in water of the karstic aquifers in the study region. Among other potential sources, the atmospheric CO₂, CO₂ from carbonate rock dissolution, biomineralization of soil organic matters and plant roots respiration seem to be important sources of the DIC in the waters of this region. The results show high vulnerability towards anthropogenic contaminants of karstic groundwater in the study region.     

Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario

We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model’s performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The “warm land-cool ocean” favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.     

PM10 data assimilation over south Korea to Asian dust forecasting model with the optimal interpolation method

A data assimilation (DA) system using ground PM₁₀ observation for Asian Dust Aerosol Model version 2 (ADAM2), which is the operational dust forecasting model of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), has been developed with the optimal interpolation (OI) method. The observations are provided by the PM₁₀ network operated by KMA. Three DA experiments are performed to simulate a dust event observed in Korea from 1 March to 31 May 2009 with different assimilation cycles of 24 (DA24), 12 (DA12), and 06 hours (DA06). 48-hour forecasts from the adjusted Initial Condition (IC) of dust concentration are compared with control simulation (CTL) and observation from independent stations. It is found that CTL simulates spatial patterns of dust emitted and transported associated with a developing low pressure system over the dust source regions quite well, compared with satellite measurement. However, it appears that there is considerable uncertainty in estimating the concentration of dust. With IC adjustment, the model simulates improved dust concentration, showing considerably reduced RMSE, particularly for the prediction within 12 hours of forecast. At the same time, it is shown that the time interval of DA affects the predictability of ADAM2, so that DA06 appears to have better predictability within a 12-hour simulation, reducing RMSE by 50% compared with CTL. This suggests that assimilating PM₁₀ to the dust prediction model using OI has the potential to predict air quality in Korea when the cycle of assimilation is sufficiently short.     

Interdecadal changes in interannual variability of the global monsoon precipitation and interrelationships among its subcomponents

The interdecadal and the interannual variability of the global monsoon (GM) precipitation over the area which is chosen by the definition of Wang and Ding (Geophys Res Lett 33: L06711, 2006) are investigated. The recent increase of the GM precipitation shown in previous studies is in fact dominant during local summer. It is evident that the GM monsoon precipitation has been increasing associated with the positive phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation in recent decades. Against the increasing trend of the GM summer precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, its interannual variability has been weakened. The significant change-point for the weakening is detected around 1993. The recent weakening of the interannual variability is related to the interdecadal changes in interrelationship among the GM subcomponents around 1993. During P1 (1979–1993) there is no significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents. On the other hand, there are significant interrelationships among the Asian, North American, and North African summer monsoon precipitations during P2 (1994–2009). It is noted that the action center of the interdecadal changes is the Asian summer (AS) monsoon system. It is found that during P2 the Western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM)-related variability is dominant but during P1 the ENSO-related variability is dominant over the AS monsoon region. The WNPSM-related variability is rather related to central-Pacific (CP) type ENSO rather than the eastern-Pacific (EP) type ENSO. Model experiments confirm that the CP type ENSO forcing is related to the dominant WNPSM-related variability and can be responsible for the significant interrelationship among GM subcomponents.     

Quantitative estimation of submarine groundwater discharge using airborne thermal infrared data acquired at two different tidal heights

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) plays an important role in coastal biogeochemical processes and hydrological cycles, particularly off volcanic islands in oligotrophic oceans. However, the spatial and temporal variations of SGD are still poorly understood owing to difficulty in taking rapid SGD measurements over a large scale. In this study, we used four airborne thermal infrared surveys (twice each during high and low tides) to quantify the spatiotemporal variations of SGD over the entire coast of Jeju Island, Korea. On the basis of an analytical model, we found a linear positive correlation between the thermal anomaly and squares of the groundwater discharge velocity and a negative exponential correlation between the anomaly and water depth (including tide height and bathymetry). We then derived a new equation for quantitatively estimating the SGD flow rates from thermal anomalies acquired at two different tide heights. The proposed method was validated with the measured SGD flow rates using a current meter at Gongcheonpo Beach. We believe that the method can be effectively applied for rapid estimation of SGD over coastal areas, where fresh groundwater discharge is significant, using airborne thermal infrared surveys.