Testing the method for surface air temperature refinement based on a complex of models of the atmospheric boundary layer and local heat and water budgets

A method is considered for space-time refinement of surface air temperature obtained from the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia over a limited area by means of use of a complex of the atmospheric boundary layer models and surface heat and water budget model. The latter describes all major processes of heat and water exchange at the underlying surface and within the soil and vegetation using 14 external parameters for different types of landscapes and soils. The side and upper boundary conditions for the local model are provided from the GCM model. Different statistical estimates of the modeling results show possibility and reliability of the refinement for time changes of the quantity under calculation as well as for development of averaged fields reflecting small-scale inhomogeneities of the landscape.     

Evaluation of atmospheric boundary layer characteristics simulated by the regional model

Carried out is the comparison of the temporal courses of temperature and wind speed at different levels as well as of the wind and temperature profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer obtained from the WRF regional model forecasts and using the upper-air in situ and remote measurements in Moscow region. The errors in temperature and wind speed forecasts at different levels are computed as well as the statistical estimates of the forecast of temperature inversions, atmospheric stratification types, and monthly mean wind speed profiles on the basis of model forecasts and acoustic sounding.     

Description of radiation conditions and evaluation of the date of <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs release to the atmosphere using the radionuclide transfer model coupled with the forecasts by the mesoscale hydrodynamic model

The estimates of ¹³⁷Cs emissions from the accident happened in Elektrostal at the beginning of April 12, 2013 are presented. The transport of radionuclides and their dry and wet deposition on the surface are computed using the Lagrangian stochastic model of the NOSTRADAMUS software package worked out by Nuclear Safety Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences. Prognostic fields of wind (horizontal and vertical components) in the lower troposphere, precipitation, and vertical and horizontal turbulence diffusivity coefficients in the lower atmosphere (up to 4 km) were used as input data. Prognostic fields were obtained using the WRF-ARW numerical mesoscale model.     

Comparison of seasonal and interannual variability of snow cover in Russian watersheds according to observations and reanalyses

Seasonal and interannual variability of the water equivalent of snow over the period 1966–1996 is analyzed with the use of the ERA/ECMWF reanalysis data, two versions of the NCEP reanalysis, and ground-based instrumental observations. Regions have been determined where snow characteristics from various sources are most consistent. In general, the snow water equivalent data from the ERA reanalysis are closer to the snow survey data than the NCEP reanalysis data. The best consistency of the water equivalent of snow in the reanalyses with measured data is observed in the period when the snow cover begins to form, in November and December, and the largest discrepancies are found for the snowmelt period, April and May. The interannual variability of the water equivalent in Asian Russia in the 1990s is better reproduced by the NCEP/DOE-II reanalysis. The snow cover data from satellite observations are compared with ground-based instrumental observations. It is shown that large discrepancies between the snow surveys and satellite observations may be observed at the snow-cover boundary during periods of snow formation and snowmelt.     

Effects of short-term weather changes in Naberezhnye Chelny city on people suffering from ischemic heart disease

Studied are the effects that variations of meteorological parameters at different time scales in Naberezhnye Chelny city produce on people suffering from ischemic heart disease. The number of ambulance calls from 2010 to 2012, meteorological parameters, and some biometeorological indices are compared by the cross-correlation analysis. Demonstrated is the absence of statistically significant correlation between the daily series of ambulance calls due to ischemic heart disease during the period under study, on the one hand, and average daily series of major meteorological parameters and the most frequently used biometeorological indices, on the other hand. Revealed is the correlation between the number of ambulance calls and the intradaily variations of air pressure and air temperature at the time scale of 3 hours. Proposed is a parameter (biometeorological index of weather effects, IWE) taking into account the total effects of intradaily variations of air pressure and air temperature and characterized by statistically significant correlation with the number of ambulance calls made by people suffering from ischemic heart disease.     

Position of the Energetic Electron Trapping Boundary Relative to Auroral Oval Boundaries during the Magnetic Storm on December 19–22, 2015, Based on Data from the Meteor-M2 Satellite

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - This paper studies the position of the trapping boundary of electrons with energies of &gt;100 keV relative to the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval during a...     

An example of the comparison of middle troposphere instability indices in the prognostic model with the thunderstorm activity data

Presented is a review of thunderstorm forecast methods based on atmospheric instability indices. Described are the main potential sources of thunderstorm observations. Obtained are the estimates of the accutacy of the WWLLN global network that registers lightnings. Compared are the Meteosat-9 infrared images of convective clouds, the model maps of cloudiness, and some instability indices computed using the WRF-ARW model.     

Evaluation of the informativeness of several biometeorological indices for three areas of the European part of Russia

Presented is the review of the indices of weather condition comfort that are most frequently used in biometeorology. Described are practical and laboratory experiments carried out by the authors that helped deriving formulae for their computation as well as the limits of applicability of these indices. To assess the impact of changing weather conditions and their aggregate (biometeorological indices) on population health in different seasons, the data of medical statistics were used: on daily mortality of heart attacks in Murmansk (2001–2004), on daily mortality of coronary heart disease in Moscow (2007–2010), and on daily ambulance calls with the essential hypertension diagnosis in Kislovodsk (2006–2008). Determined are the indices having significant correlation with the data of medical statistics. Using the method of cross-correlation analysis of the daily series of ambulance calls and deaths, it was possible to identify the period of the response of the human organism with cardiovascular diseases to changing weather conditions during the warm and cold seasons.     

Simulation of the summer Indian monsoon beginning during the experiments with the atmosphere general circulation model of Hydrometcenter of Russia

The influence of the Earth’s gravitational field on the simulation of the time of the beginning of monsoon circulation in Asia by the model is analyzed. The results of numerical experiments carried out with the circulation model of the Hydrometcenter of Russia during ten years (1979–1988) following the AMIP protocol are considered. Two standards were used during the analysis of results. The data of NCEP/NCAR (the United States) reanalysis were used for the comparison of circulation characteristics and the data of GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), for the precipitation analysis. Four different criteria of the monsoon beginning are analyzed: the occurrence of the negative divergence in the area under study, the beginning of heavy precipitation fall, the marked kinetic energy increase in the lower troposphere, and the origination of anticyclonic vorticity. The comparison of the data obtained during the numerical experiments with the chosen standards demonstrated that, in all cases, taking account of gravitation field variations results in the improvement of the simulation of the time of monsoon circulation beginning by the model.