Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios

Dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 using HIRHAM5 and RCA3 for a northern European domain focused on Scandinavia indicates sustained extreme wind speeds with long recurrence intervals (50?years) and intense winds are not likely to evolve out of the historical envelope of variability until the end of C21st. Even then, significant changes are indicated only in the SW of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea where there is some evidence for relatively small magnitude increases in the 50?year return period wind speed (of up to 15%). There are marked differences in results based on the two Regional Climate Models. Additionally, internal (inherent) variability and initial conditions exert a strong impact on projected wind climates throughout the twenty-first century. Simulations of wind gusts by one of the RCMs (RCA3) indicate some evidence for increased magnitudes (of up to +10%) in the southwest of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea by the end of the current century. As in prior downscaling of ECHAM4, dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 indicates a tendency towards increased energy density and thus wind power generation potential over the course of the C21st. However, caution should be used in interpreting this inference given the high degree of wind climate projection spread that derives from the specific AOGCM and RCM used in the downscaling.     

High-Resolution Records of the Holocene Paleoenvironmental Variation Reflected by Carbonate and Its Isotopic Compositions in Bosten Lake and Response to Glacial Activities

Abstract: The Early Holocene paleoclimate in Bosten Lake on the northern margin of the Tarim Basin, southern Xinjiang, is reconstructed through an analysis of a 953 cm long core (BSTC2000) taken from Bosten Lake. Multiple proxies of this core, including the mineral components of carbonate, carbonate content, stable isotopic compositions of carbonate, Ca/Sr, TOC and C/N and C/S of organic matter, are used to reconstruct the climatic change since 8500 a B.P. The chronology model is made by nine AMS 14C ages of leaves, seeds and organic matter contained in two parallel cores. The climate was cold and wet during 8500 to 8100 a B.P. Temperature increased from 8100 to 6400 a B.P., the climate was warm and humid, and the lake expanded. The lake level was highest during this stage. Then from 6400 to 5100 a B.P., the climate became cold and the lake level decreased slightly. During the late mid-Holocene, the climate was hot and dry from 5100 to 3100 a B.P., but there was a short cold period during 4400 to 3800 a B.P. At this temporal interval, a mass of ice and snow melting water supplied the lake at the early time and made the lake level rise. The second highest lake level stage occurred during 5200 to 3800 a B.P. The climate was cool and wet during 3100 to 2200 a B.P., when the lake expanded with decreasing evaporation. The lake had the last short-term high level during 3100 to 2800 a B.P. After this short high lake level period, the lake shrank because of the long-term lower temperature and reduced water supply. From 2200 to 1200 a B.P., the climate was hot and dry, and the lake shrank greatly. Although the temperature decreased somewhat from 1200 a B.P. to the present, the climate was warm and dry. The lake level began to rise a little again, but it did not reach the river bed altitude of the Konqi River, an outflow river of the Bosten Lake.     

Modeled Nitrogen Loading to Narragansett Bay: 1850 to 2015

Nutrient loading to estuaries with heavily populated watersheds can have profound ecological consequences. In evaluating policy options for managing nitrogen (N), it is helpful to understand current and historic spatial loading patterns to the system. We modeled N inputs to Narragansett Bay from 1850 to 2000, using data on population, human waste disposal, livestock, fertilizer, and atmospheric deposition. We found that total N loading to the bay increased 250% from 1850 to 2000, and 80% from 1900 to 2000. Loading to the upper bay increased far more than that to the lower bay, and the most important source shifted from non-point animal waste to human waste concentrated at sewage treatment facilities. We also modeled future N loads in 2015 under four management scenarios. Planned improvements in sewage treatment would reduce N loads 9% below business-as-usual, to the 1990 loading rate. Greater reductions, to circa 1900 rates of loading, may be possible.     

Rapid climate change in the Upper Palaeolithic: the record of charcoal conifer rings from the Gravettian site of Dolní Vĕstonice,Czech Republic

Precisely how Upper Palaeolithic human ecology was shaped by changing climate during the Pleniglacial remains a matter of debate, for while this generally cold period is now understood to include complex and often rapid flux in climate, there are still considerable difficulties in resolving climatic variations at particular times and places — derived from various lines of proxy evidence — with the high-resolution proxy record of temperature changes from oxygen isotope analysis of the Greenland ice-cores.In this paper we apply the methodology of large-scale flotation to newly excavated contexts from the Upper Palaeolithic (Gravettian) site of Dolní V?stonice II, Czech Republic, to explore the potential of charcoal — as a natural archive of environmental information — to offer information on environmental change towards the end of the middle pleniglacial during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3, between c. 32,500 and 31,200 Cal yr BP. The results of an analysis of ring widths and other anatomical features — interpreted alongside micromorphological data — indicate that this charcoal may capture a higher-resolution record of the changing climatic conditions during which humans were first expanding into these hitherto marginal ecologies and, consequently, shed new light upon the complexity of the lifeways that enabled them to do so.     

Transport and storage of bed material in a gravel‐bed channel during episodes of aggradation and degradation: a field and flume study

The dynamics of sediment transport capacity in gravel‐bed rivers is critical to understanding the formation and preservation of fluvial landforms and formulating sediment‐routing models in drainage systems. We examine transport‐storage relations during cycles of aggradation and degradation by augmenting observations of three events of channel aggradation and degradation in Cuneo Creek, a steep (3%) gravel‐bed channel in northern California, with measurements from a series of flume runs modeling those events. An armored, single‐thread channel was formed before feed rates were increased in each aggradation run. Output rates increased as the channel became finer and later widened, steepened, and braided. After feed rates were cut, output rates remained high or increased in early stages of degradation as the incising channel remained fine‐grained, and later decreased as armoring intensified. If equilibrium was not reached before sediment feed rate was cut, then a rapid transition from a braided channel to a single‐thread channel caused output rates for a given storage volume to be higher during degradation than during aggradation. Variations in channel morphology, and surface bed texture during runs that modeled the three cycles of aggradation and degradation were similar to those observed in Cuneo Creek and provide confidence in interpretations of the history of change: Cuneo Creek aggraded rapidly as it widened, shallowed, and braided, then degraded rapidly before armoring stabilized the channel. Such morphology‐driven changes in transport capacity may explain the formation of flood terraces in proximal channels. Transport‐storage relations can be expected to vary between aggradation and degradation and be influenced by channel conditions at the onset of changes in sediment supply. Published in 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Review of Methodologies for Offshore Wind Resource Assessment in European Seas

The wind resource offshore is generally larger than at geographically nearby onshore sites, which can offset the higher installation, operation and maintenance costs associated with offshore wind parks. Successful offshore wind energy development relies to some extent on accurate prediction of wind resources, but since installing and operating a meteorological mast in situ is expensive, prospective sites must be carefully evaluated. Accordingly, one can conceptualize the wind resource assessment process as a two-phase activity: (i) an evaluation of wind resources at the regional scale to locate promising wind farm sites and (ii) a site specific evaluation of wind climatology and vertical profiles of wind and atmospheric turbulence, in addition to an assessment of historical and possibly future changes due to climate non-stationarity. Phase (i) of the process can involve use of in situ observations of opportunity derived from ships, lighthouses and buoys in conjunction with model tools and remote sensing products. The reliability of such data sources has been extensively investigated in different national and European projects especially in Northern Europe, and the results are summarized herein. Phase (ii) of the project often still requires in situ observations (which may or may not be supplemented with ground-based remote sensing technologies) and application of tools to provide a climatological context for the resulting measurements. Current methodologies for undertaking these aspects of the resource assessment are reviewed.     

Internal migration and development transitions in South East Asia

The relationships between migration trends and changes in socioeconomic structures, settlement systems, and regional development programs in developing countries are analyzed. Current and possible future trends in urbanization in Southeast Asia are summarized, with a focus on the effects of migration. The impact of internal migration on spatial distibution in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines is examined. The need for taking cultural traditions into consideration in the formulation of population policies and programs is emphasized.     

Analysis of the effect of the coastal discontinuity on near-surface flow

Conditional sampling is used herein to examine the effect of fetch, stability, and surface roughness changes on wind speeds in the coastal zone. Using data from an offshore wind farm it is shown that at a distance of 1.2–1.7 km from the coast, up to a height of 20 m above the surface, differences in wind speed distributions from onshore and offshore masts are statistically significant for flow moving offshore under all stability conditions. In contrast, differences between the distribution of wind speeds at 38 and 48 m at masts located at the coast and in the coastal zone are not significant for flow moving offshore, indicating that flow at these heights is not fully adjusted to the change in surface roughness (land to sea). These findings are in accordance with calculations of the internal boundary layer (IBL) height which indicate that the IBL would frequently be below the two upper measurement heights at 1.2–1.6 km from the coast. The analyses presented here indicate that the wind speed distribution at a potential offshore wind farm site is not solely dependent on fetch (distance from the coast) but also depends on the stability climate.