The Process of Competitive Discussion

Every active scientific discipline has arrived at its own peculiar definition of acceptable problems and acceptable ways of attacking them through a social process of mutual consent.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

GENDER,RACE, AND COMMUTING AMONG SERVICE SECTOR WORKERS*

The generality that women work closer to home and have shorter commuting times than men needs to be assessed for racial groups. Statistical analysis of commuting times for a large sample of service workers in the New York metropolitan area shows that black and hispanic women commute as far as their male counterparts and their commuting times far exceed those of white men and women. Workplace factors, such as income, occupation, and job accessibility, are important in explaining these findings.     

Public engagement on solar radiation management and why it needs to happen now

There have been a number of calls for public engagement in geoengineering in recent years. However, there has been limited discussion of why the public should have a say or what the public can be expected to contribute to geoengineering discussions. We explore how public engagement can contribute to the research, development, and governance of one branch of geoengineering, solar radiation management (SRM), in three key ways: 1. by fulfilling ethical requirements for the inclusion of affected parties in democratic decision making processes; 2. by contributing to improved dialogue and trust between scientists and the public; and 3. by ensuring that decisions about SRM research and possible deployment are informed by a broad set of societal interests, values, and framings. Finally, we argue that, despite the nascent state of many SRM technologies, the time is right for the public to participate in engagement processes.     

The distribution and inventory of total and methyl mercury in Kuwait Bay

Sediment (surface and core) sampling was conducted during the period from August 96-December 98 from intertidal and offshore areas in Kuwait Bay. The highest (and most variable) concentrations of total mercury (T-Hg; 36500+/-34930 ng g(-1)) are encountered around the previous industrial outfall where sediments are disturbed by shipping activities. The concentrations of T-Hg are lower in the Shuwaikh Port area (650+/-210 ng g(-1)) and continue to decrease towards the northern coastline of Kuwait Bay (average concentrations in the wider Bay region are 50+/-30 ng g(-1)). These values are still above background concentrations of 15-20 ng g(-1). Calculation of the total inventory of mercury in all the surface sediments of the studied area indicates that approximately 22.5 ton is present which is similar to the estimated industrial discharges of approximately 20 ton suggesting that the contamination is largely confined to the Bay and that releases to the wider Gulf region are small. The distributions of MeHg are similar to those of T-Hg and represent ranges between 0.23% and 0.5% of the T-Hg indicating that surface sediments within Kuwait Bay contain approximately 80 kg of this chemical.     

Nickel, Copper, Zinc and Cadmium Cycling with Manganese in Lake Vanda (Wright Valley, Antarctica)

Lake Vanda is a closed-basin, permanently ice-covered lake located in the Wright Valley of Antarctica. The lakes more important geochemical features include the fact that it is fed by a single glacial melt water stream for only 6–8weeks out of the year; that it has remained stratified for more than a millennium; and that, like other lakes in the region, it is remote from anthropogenic influence. These, together with the fact that it is among the least biologically productive lakes in the world, make it an ideal system for examining the transport, cycling and fate of trace metals in the aquatic environment. Like others before us, we view this lake as a natural geochemical laboratory, a flask in the desert. This paper presents the first set of closely spaced, vertical, profiles for dissolved and particulate Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cd in the water column. Despite the absence of an outflow, metals in the fresh upper waters of the lake have extremely low concentrations, in the pico-molar to nano-molar range, and are partitioned largely into dissolved rather than particulate phases. Efficient metal scavenging by particles from these oxygen-rich waters is indicated. Significant increases in metal concentrations begin to appear at depth, between 57 and 60m, and these increases coincide with the onset of manganese oxide dissolution in oxic, but lower pH waters. Vertical profiles suggest that the entire suite of trace metals (Ni, Cu, Zn, and Cd) is being released from manganese oxide carrier phases. Thermodynamic analysis indicates that Mn3O4 (i.e., the mineral hausmannite) may be important in metal sequestration and recycling in the deeper waters of Lake Vanda. Manganese-reducing organisms reported by Bratina etal. (1998) are active in the zone of metal release and these could also contribute to the observed cycling.     

Interpreting rural change in Malaysia

Relatively little in the literature on rural change in Southeast Asia engages with Malaysia, where the population is becoming urban‐based more rapidly than in many countries in the region. The literature on change in rural Malaysia during the past 40 years, supplemented by our own research, is used to identify key features of such change, which are considered in the context of existing interpretations to arrive at deeper understandings of rural change. Existing conceptualizations of rural change, it is suggested, must account for the diversity of roles taken by individuals daily, seasonally and at different life stages, as well as in multiple locations. Further attention needs to be paid to gender, generation and class among those experiencing change. Processes of rural (and urban) changes will continue and their complexity will reflect cultural and technological evolutions that affect individuals, households and communities throughout the world.