Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in North Africa

North Africa is one of the most earthquake-prone areas of the Mediterranean. Many devastating earthquakes, some of them tsunami-triggering, inflicted heavy loss of life and considerable economic damage to the region. In order to mitigate the destructive impact of the earthquakes, the regional seismic hazard in North Africa is assessed using the neo-deterministic, multi-scenario methodology (NDSHA) based on the computation of synthetic seismograms, using the modal summation technique, at a regular grid of 0.2?×?0.2°. This is the first study aimed at producing NDSHA maps of North Africa including five countries: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. The key input data for the NDSHA algorithm are earthquake sources, seismotectonic zonation, and structural models. In the preparation of the input data, it has been really important to go beyond the national borders and to adopt a coherent strategy all over the area. Thanks to the collaborative efforts of the teams involved, it has been possible to properly merge the earthquake catalogues available for each country to define with homogeneous criteria the seismogenic zones, the characteristic focal mechanism associated with each of them, and the structural models used to model wave propagation from the sources to the sites. As a result, reliable seismic hazard maps are produced in terms of maximum displacement (D _max), maximum velocity (V _max), and design ground acceleration.     

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparison over the Italian Territory

Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA) and the probabilistic approach (PSHA) are compared for the Italian territory. The NDSHA provides values larger than those given by the PSHA in areas where large earthquakes are observed and in areas identified as prone to large earthquakes, but lower values in low-seismicity areas. These differences suggest the adoption of the flexible, robust and physically sound NDSHA approach to overcome the proven shortcomings of PSHA, thus allowing for a reliable seismic hazard estimation, especially for those areas characterized by a prolonged quiescence, i.e. in tectonically active sites where events of only moderate size have occurred in historical times.     

Neo-deterministic definition of seismic input for residential seismically isolated buildings

This paper deals with the neo-deterministic definition of the seismic input in the municipality of Nimis (Italy), aimed at the design of residential seismically isolated buildings. The seismic input is defined by the computation of realistic synthetic seismograms considering different levels of detail for the earthquake source, both for a bedrock model and taking into account the specific site conditions. The horizontal response spectrum, calculated in the centre of the municipality by modelling the most dangerous source, advises against the construction of a building with a fixed base, but it is compatible with the seismic isolation, and it has been, therefore, used for the design of a residential seismically isolated building. The maximum displacement for the isolation system has been estimated about 17 cm, a value much lower than that provided by the code design response spectrum (28 cm). The importance of the realistic modelling, which permits the generalization of empirical observations by means of, physically sound, theoretical considerations, is evident, as it allows for the optimisation of the structural design with respect to the site of interest.     

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.     

Seismotectonic Model and CN Earthquake Prediction in Italy

—The choice of the regions is essential in the application of the algorithm CN, therefore a seismotectonic criterion for their definition is tested. In order to take into account the geodynamic complexity characterising the Italian peninsula, we established to strictly follow the seismotectonic zones, including in each region only zones with similar seismogenic behaviour and the transitional zones connected to them. Three regions have been successfully defined in this way, corresponding approximately to the North, Centre and South of Italy. The reduction of the space-time uncertainty and the increase of the stability of prediction results obtained with this regionalisation, with respect to the previous applications of CN in Italy (Keilis-Borok et al., 1990; Costa et al., 1995, 1996), can be interpreted as a validation of the seismotectonic model.     

Delineation of the geometry of nodes in the Alps–Dinarides hinge zone and recognition of seismogenic nodes (M ≥ 6)

We introduce a new method based on the analysis of the topographical alignments and used to delineate the structural boundaries of the nodes, which permits the definition of relatively narrow earthquake-prone areas by the pattern recognition approach. The structurally bounded nodes capable of earthquakes with M  ≥ 6.0, identified with pattern recognition, in fact, cover a significantly smaller area of the study region as compared with that defined by Gorshkov et al. (2004) who used conventional circles. The proposed method thus improves the precision in the location of potential large earthquakes.     

The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory

Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against the real seismic activity must become the necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk estimation. Because seismic hazard maps seek to predict the shaking that would actually occur, the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), and the alternative ground shaking maps based on the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), are cross-compared and tested against the real seismicity for the territory of Italy. The comparison between predicted intensities and those reported for past earthquakes shows that models generally provide rather conservative estimates, except for PGA with 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which underestimates the largest earthquakes. In terms of efficiency in predicting ground shaking, measured accounting for the rate of underestimated events and for the territorial extent of areas characterized by high seismic hazard, the NDSHA maps appear to outscore the PSHA ones.     

A Multiscale Application of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes in the Central Mediterranean Area and Alpine Region

We study the parameters A, B, and C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE) in the Central Mediterranean area and Alpine region on the basis of a variable space and time scale approach. We make use of regional and local earthquake catalogues. Accordingly, we investigate three different scales: the scale of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region spanning different geological domains, the scale of the Alps focusing on a single geological entity, and the scale of an active fault system at the junction between the southeastern Alps and the external Dinarides in Northeastern Italy and Western Slovenia. Maps based on the varied time and location scales are compared with each other. The observed temporal variability of the A, B, C coefficients indicates significant changes of seismic activity at the time scales of a few decades. Therefore, it is highly recommended to use all the data available for long-term seismic hazard assessment in conjunction with a real-time monitoring of these characteristics for possible evaluation of time-dependent risk at the intermediate-term scales of a few years. The confirmed fractal nature of earthquakes and their distribution in space implies that the traditional estimations of seismic hazard for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. The degree of underestimation by traditional methods of seismic risk at a city is illustrated by providing estimates of hazard and related personal hazard, which are oversimplified examples of seismic risk assessment accounting for fractal properties of earthquakes in the major cities of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region.     

Diagnosis of Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for Volcanic Earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius

The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the CN algorithm is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M ≥ M₀, within a region a priori delimited. Here the CN algorithm is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius during the period from February 1972 to June 2004 are considered, and the magnitude threshold M₀ selecting the events to be predicted is varied within the range: 3.0–3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5–3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M ≥ M₀ occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The control experiment ``Seismic History' demonstrates the stability of the obtained results and indicates that the CN algorithm can be applied to monitor the preparation of impending earthquakes with M ≥ 3.0 at Mt. Vesuvius.