Periastron precession measurements in transiting extrasolar planetary systems at the level of general relativity

Transiting exoplanetary systems are surpassingly important among the planetary systems since they provide the widest spectrum of information for both the planet and the host star. If a transiting planet is on an eccentric orbit, the duration of transits T _D is sensitive to the orientation of the orbital ellipse relative to the line of sight. The precession of the orbit results in a systematic variation in both the duration of individual transit events and the observed period between successive transits,   P _obs  . The periastron of the ellipse slowly precesses due to general relativity and possibly the presence of other planets in the system. This secular precession can be detected through the long-term change in   P _obs  (transit timing variations, TTV) or in T _D (transit duration variations, TDV). We estimate the corresponding precession measurement precision for repeated future observations of the known eccentric transiting exoplanetary systems (XO-3b, HD 147506b, GJ 436b and HD 17156b) using existing or planned space-borne instruments. The TDV measurement improves the precession detection sensitivity by orders of magnitude over the TTV measurement. We find that TDV measurements over a approximately 4 yr period can typically detect the precession rate to a precision well exceeding the level predicted by general relativity.     

Cosmological physics with black holes (and possibly white dwarfs)

The notion that microparsec-scale black holes can be used to probe gigaparsec-scale physics may seem counterintuitive, at first. Yet, the gravitational observatory LISA will detect cosmologically-distant coalescing pairs of massive black holes, accurately measure their luminosity distance and help identify an electromagnetic counterpart or a host galaxy. A wide variety of new black hole studies and a gravitational version of Hubble’s diagram become possible, if host galaxies are successfully identified. Furthermore, if dark energy is a manifestation of large-scale modified gravity, deviations from general relativistic expectations could become apparent in a gravitational signal propagated over cosmological scales, especially when compared to the electromagnetic signal from a same source. Finally, since inspirals of white dwarfs into massive black holes at cosmological distances may permit pre-merger localizations, we suggest that careful monitoring of these events and any associated electromagnetic counterpart could lead to high-precision cosmological measurements with LISA.     

Paleoenvironmental conditions and strontium isotope stratigraphy in the Paleogene Gafsa Basin (Tunisia) deduced from geochemical analyses of phosphatic fossils

Fossil shark teeth and coprolites from three major phosphorite occurrences in the Gafsa Basin (southwestern Tunisia) were investigated for their geochemical compositions to improve local stratigraphy and to better assess paleoenvironmental conditions. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr isotope ratios of shark teeth from the Early Maastrichtian El Haria Formation and from the Early Eocene Métlaoui s.s. Formation yielded Sr isotope ages of 68 ± 1 and 47.9 ± 1.3 Ma, respectively, which accord with the expected stratigraphic positions of these sediments. Conversely, shark teeth from the Paleocene–Eocene Chouabine Formation have large variation in Sr isotope ratios even within individual layers. After statistical treatment and then elimination of certain outlier samples, three age-models are proposed and discussed. The most reasonable solution includes three subsequent Sr ages of 61.8 ± 2.2 Ma, 57.2 ± 1.8 and 54.6 ± 1.6 for layer IX, layers VIII–V and layers IV–0, respectively. Three scenarios are discussed for explanation of the presence of the outliers: (1) diagenesis, (2) re-working and (3) locally controlled seawater Sr isotope ratio. The most plausible account for the higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios relative to the global ocean in some fossils is enhanced intrabasinal re-working due to low sea level. Conversely, the sample with lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr than the global seawater may link to diagenesis or to seawater influenced by weathering of Late Cretaceous marine carbonates, which latter is supported by model calculation as well. The ε_Nd values of these fossils are very similar to those reported for Paleogene and Late Cretaceous Tethyan seawater and are compatible with the above interpretations. The relatively low oxygen isotope values in shark teeth from the topmost phosphate bed of the Chouabine Formation, together with the Sr isotope results, point toward recovering better connections with the open sea. These δ¹⁸O data reflect elevated ambient temperature, which may link to the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum.     

Gravitational waves from scattering of stellar-mass black holes in galactic nuclei

Stellar-mass black holes (BHs) are expected to segregate and form a steep density cusp around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in galactic nuclei. We follow the evolution of a multimass system of BHs and stars by numerically integrating the Fokker–Planck energy diffusion equations for a variety of BH mass distributions. We find that the BHs 'self-segregate', and that the rarest, most massive BHs dominate the scattering rate closest to the SMBH  (≲10⁻¹ pc)  . BH–BH binaries form out of gravitational wave emission during BH encounters. We find that the expected rate of BH coalescence events detectable by Advanced LIGO is  ∼1–10² yr⁻¹  , depending on the initial mass function of stars in galactic nuclei and the mass of the most massive BHs. We find that the actual merger rate is likely ∼10 times larger than this due to the intrinsic scatter of stellar densities in many different galaxies. The BH binaries that form this way in galactic nuclei have significant eccentricities as they enter the LIGO band (90 per cent with   e > 0.9  ), and are therefore distinguishable from other binaries, which circularize before becoming detectable. We also show that eccentric mergers can be detected to larger distances and greater BH masses than circular mergers, up to  ∼700 M_⊙  . Future ground-based gravitational wave observatories will be able to constrain both the mass function of BHs and stars in galactic nuclei.     

Homogeneity tests and non-parametric analyses of tendencies in precipitation time series in Keszthely,Western Hungary

This study aims to investigate the precipitation trends in Keszthely (Western Hungary, Central Europe) through an examination of historical climate data covering the past almost one and a half centuries. Pettitt’s test for homogeneity was employed to detect change points in the time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation records. Change points and monotonic trends were analysed separately in annual, seasonal and monthly time series of precipitation. While no break points could be detected in the annual precipitation series, a significant decreasing trend of 0.2–0.7 mm/year was highlighted statistically using the autocorrelated Mann-Kendall trend test. Significant change points were found in those time series in which significant tendencies had been detected in previous studies. These points fell in spring and winter for the seasonal series, and October for the monthly series. The question therefore arises of whether these trends are the result of a shift in the mean. The downward and upward shift in the mean in the case of spring and winter seasonal amounts, respectively, leads to a suspicion that changes in precipitation are also in progress in these seasons. The study concludes that homogeneity tests are of great importance in such analyses, because they may help to avoid false trend detections.     

Spatial and temporal changes in the relationship between church and state in Hungary

Hungary is located in the Carpatho–Pannonian area and has been the interface at which European Catholicism, Protestantism, Orthodoxy and Judaism have met and mixed for nearly 500 years. The Hungarian state was founded in the 10th and 11th centuries with Catholic support. This was well before the emergence of the modern Hungarian nation in the 18th and 19th centuries on the basis of a mix with Protestantism. During the latter period, Hungarians were followers of several confessions. In spite of this, the Catholic Church generally managed to retain its politically dominant position until 1946, and the elimination of kingdom. In 1949, the Hungarian state and the churches were officially separated. This was followed by an era of atheist, anticlerical policy by the communist totalitarian regime until 1989. Since then state–church relations have largely conformed to European norms and were based on a division of tasks and cooperation. Churches in Hungary played an important role in maintaining civil society and ideas of national consciousness during the totalitarian communist regime. That is why religious conviction and ecclesiastic affairs have a broader political context here than in the west. In the second half of the 20th century, secularisation accelerated by state support was curbed and reversed due to a religious revival, which took place mainly in rural areas following the change in political regime. The scale of religious pluralism was related to the arrival of people who belonged to non-traditional confessions.