Perceptions of Land Tenure Security in Rural China: The Impact of Land Reallocations and Certification

Abstract

Tenure security is commonly recognized as an important factor in stimulating long-term investments in land. Recent studies suggest that a distinction between legal, actual and perceived tenure security needs to be made in analyzing tenure security. This study discusses the relationships between legal, actual and perceived land tenure security in rural China, and empirically examines the impact of actual on perceived land tenure security by applying Probit models to household and village survey data collected in four provinces. Using household expectations about the absence of land reallocations within the next five years as the dependent variable, we find that tenure security is positively affected by the possession of land certificates in villages that periodically reallocated land but not in villages that did not do so. The estimated impact is larger for land certificates issued in the new round of land certification than for land certificates that were issued earlier.     

Early Holocene water budget of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin, Central Kenya Rift

The Nakuru-Elmenteita basin in the Central Kenya Rift, contains two shallow, alkaline lakes, Lake Nakuru (1770 m above sea level) and Lake Elmenteita (1786 m). Ancient shorelines and lake sediments at 1940 m suggest that these two lakes formed a single large and deep lake as a result of a wetter climate during the early Holocene. Here, we used a hydrological model to compare the precipitation–evaporation balance during the early Holocene to today. Assuming that the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin was hydrologically closed, as it is today, the most likely climate scenario includes a 45% increase in mean-annual precipitation, a 0.5°C decrease in air temperature, and an increase of 9% in cloud coverage from the modern values. Compared to the modeling results from other East African lake basins, this dramatic increase in precipitation seems to be unrealistic. Therefore, we propose a significant flow of water from the early Holocene Lake Naivasha in the south towards the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin to compensate the extremely negative hydrological budget of this basin. Since we did not find any field evidence for a surface connection, as often proposed during the last 70 years, the hydrological deficit of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin could have also been compensated by a subsurface water exchange.     

Tectonic and climatic control on evolution of rift lakes in the Central Kenya Rift, East Africa

The long-term histories of the neighboring Nakuru–Elmenteita and Naivasha lake basins in the Central Kenya Rift illustrate the relative importance of tectonic versus climatic effects on rift-lake evolution and the formation of disparate sedimentary environments. Although modern climate conditions in the Central Kenya Rift are very similar for these basins, hydrology and hydrochemistry of present-day lakes Nakuru, Elmenteita and Naivasha contrast dramatically due to tectonically controlled differences in basin geometries, catchment size, and fluvial processes. In this study, we use eighteen ¹⁴C and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dated fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary sections to unravel the spatiotemporal evolution of the lake basins in response to tectonic and climatic influences. We reconstruct paleoclimatic and ecological trends recorded in these basins based on fossil diatom assemblages and geologic field mapping. Our study shows a tendency towards increasing alkalinity and shrinkage of water bodies in both lake basins during the last million years. Ongoing volcano-tectonic segmentation of the lake basins, as well as reorganization of upstream drainage networks have led to contrasting hydrologic regimes with adjacent alkaline and freshwater conditions. During extreme wet periods in the past, such as during the early Holocene climate optimum, lake levels were high and all basins evolved toward freshwater systems. During drier periods some of these lakes revert back to alkaline conditions, while others maintain freshwater characteristics. Our results have important implications for the use and interpretation of lake sediment as climate archives in tectonically active regions and emphasize the need to deconvolve lacustrine records with respect to tectonics versus climatic forcing mechanisms.     

The REMIND-R model: the role of renewables in the low-carbon transformation—first-best vs. second-best worlds

Can near-term public support of renewable energy technologies contain the increase of mitigation costs due to delays of implementing emission caps at the global level? To answer this question we design a set of first and second best scenarios to analyze the impact of early deployment of renewable energy technologies on welfare and emission timing to achieve atmospheric carbon stabilization by 2100. We use the global multiregional energy?Ceconomy?Cclimate hybrid model REMIND-R as a tool for this analysis. An important design feature of the policy scenarios is the timing of climate policy. Immediate climate policy contains the mitigation costs at less than 1% even if the CO₂ concentration target is 410?ppm by 2100. Delayed climate policy increases the costs significantly because the absence of a strong carbon price signal continues the carbon intensive growth path. The additional costs can be decreased by early technology policies supporting renewable energy technologies because emissions grow less, alternative energy technologies are increased in capacity and their costs are reduced through learning by doing. The effects of early technology policy are different in scenarios with immediate carbon pricing. In the case of delayed climate policy, the emission path can be brought closer to the first-best solution, whereas in the case of immediate climate policy additional technology policy would lead to deviations from the optimal emission path. Hence, technology policy in the delayed climate policy case reduces costs, but in the case of immediate climate policy they increase. However, the near-term emission reductions are smaller in the case of delayed climate policies. At the regional level the effects on mitigation costs are heterogeneously distributed. For the USA and Europe early technology policy has a positive welfare effect for immediate and delayed climate policies. In contrast, India looses in both cases. China loses in the case of immediate climate policy, but profits in the delayed case. Early support of renewable energy technologies devalues the stock of emission allowances, and this effect is considerable for delayed climate policies. In combination with the initial allocation rule of contraction and convergence a relatively well-endowed country like India loses and potential importers like the EU gain from early renewable deployment.     

Dynamics and interaction of organic carbon, turbidity and bacteria in a karst aquifer system

The dynamics of organic carbon (OC), turbidity, faecal indicator bacteria and physicochemical parameters was studied in a karst system near Yverdon, Switzerland. Online measurements and sampling were done at a swallow hole draining an agricultural surface (the input), and two groups of springs (the outputs) that often show bacterial contamination. A fluorescent tracer that was injected into the swallow hole during low-flow conditions first arrived at the springs 10–12 days after injection; the total recovery rate was 29%. Previous tracer tests during high-flow conditions gave shorter travel times. After a major rainfall event, a primary turbidity peak was observed at the springs. It coincides with the rising limb of the hydrograph, indicating remobilisation of autochthonous particles from the aquifer. A secondary turbidity peak occurs several days later, suggesting the arrival of allochthonous particles from the swallow hole. Wider peaks of OC and bacteria were observed simultaneously. Applying methods from molecular microbiology (PCR-DGGE) allowed characterisation of the bacterial communities at the swallow hole and the springs. The results demonstrate that the swallow hole is an important source of groundwater contamination, while its contribution to aquifer recharge is insignificant. OC appears to be a better indicator for bacterial contamination than turbidity.     

Comparative analysis of phytoplankton patterns in two modified lakes with contrasting hydrological features

Hydrological management represents one of the main factors controlling physical and chemical characteristics as well as biodiversity and productivity of planktonic communities in artificial and modified lakes. In Alpine piedmont reservoirs, which often receive large water inputs from high altitude watersheds, control operated by hydrological regime over ecological processes is also mediated by other related variables such as water temperature and turbulence, and load of inorganic suspended solids. This contribution reports on results obtained from a comparative study on the impact of hydrological regime on phytoplankton patterns in two modified piedmont lakes of different size and hydrology located in the NE Italian Alps: Lake Santa Croce (V = 147 × 10⁶ km³) and Lake Toblino (V = 5.7 × 10⁶ km³). Phytoplankton of both lakes was characterised by a pronounced dominance of diatoms, accompanied by cryptophytes and green algae. The mesotrophic Lake Santa Croce showed a typical seasonal succession of dominant groups, while phytoplankton growth in the eutrophic Lake Toblino was variable and showed pronounced pulses in relation to dramatic changes in the hydrological regime. The comparative study of phytoplankton, based on morpho-functional classification and application of multivariate analyses (non-metric multidimensional scaling, principal components analysis, and redundancy analysis), showed that hydrological regime affected phytoplankton growth in the two lakes both directly, i.e. through renewal time, and indirectly, i.e. regulating thermal conditions in Lake Santa Croce and nutrient availability in both lakes. Nevertheless, effectiveness of hydrological constraints largely depended on lake size and morphology, being more pronounced in the shallower and smaller Lake Toblino.     

The passivation of calcite by acid mine water. Column experiments with ferric sulfate and ferric chloride solutions at pH 2

Column experiments, simulating the behavior of passive treatment systems for acid mine drainage, have been performed. Acid solutions (HCl or H₂SO₄, pH 2), with initial concentrations of Fe(III) ranging from 250 to 1500 mg L⁻¹, were injected into column reactors packed with calcite grains at a constant flow rate. The composition of the solutions was monitored during the experiments. At the end of the experiments (passivation of the columns), the composition and structure of the solids were measured. The dissolution of calcite in the columns caused an increase in pH and the release of Ca into the solution, leading to the precipitation of gypsum and Fe–oxyhydroxysulfates (Fe(III)–SO₄–H⁺ solutions) or Fe–oxyhydroxychlorides (Fe(III)–Cl–H⁺ solutions). The columns worked as an efficient barrier for some time, increasing the pH of the circulating solutions from 2 to 6–7 and removing its metal content. However, after some time (several weeks, depending on the conditions), the columns became chemically inert. The results showed that passivation time increased with decreasing anion and metal content of the solutions. Gypsum was the phase responsible for the passivation of calcite in the experiments with Fe(III)–SO₄–H⁺ solutions. Schwertmannite and goethite appeared as the Fe(III) secondary phases in those experiments. Akaganeite was the phase responsible for the passivation of the system in the experiments with Fe(III)–Cl–H⁺ solutions.     

Structure, thermodynamics, and diffusion in CaAl2Si2O8 liquid from first-principles molecular dynamics

We have performed first-principles molecular dynamics simulations of CaAl₂Si₂O₈ (anorthite) liquid at pressures up to 120 GPa and temperatures of 3000, 4000 and 6000 K. At the lowest degrees of compression the liquid is seen to accommodate changes in density through decreasing the abundance of 3- and 4-membered rings, while increases in coordination of network forming cations take effect at somewhat higher degrees of compression. Results are fit to a fundamental thermodynamic relation with 4th order finite strain and 1st order thermal variable expansions. Upon compression by a factor of two, the Grüneisen parameter (γ) is found to increase continuously from 0.35 to 1.10. Weak temperature dependence in γ is thermodynamically consistent with a slight decrease in isochoric heat capacity (C_V), for which values of between 4.4 and 5.2 Nk_B are obtained, depending on the temperature. Pressure and temperature dependence of self-diffusivities is found to be well represented by an Arrhenius relation, except at 3000 K and pressures lower than 5 GPa, where self-diffusivities of Si, Al, and O increase with pressure. Analysis of the lifetimes of individual coordination species reveals that this phenomenon arises due to the disproportionately high stability of 4-fold coordinated Si, and to a lesser extent 4-fold coordinated Al. Our results represent a marked improvement in accuracy and reliability in describing the physics of CaAl₂Si₂O₈ liquid at deep mantle pressures, pointing the way to a general thermodynamic model of melts at extreme pressures and temperatures relevant to planetary-scale magma oceans and deep mantle partial melting.