Green Lake Landslide and other giant and very large postglacial landslides in Fiordland,New Zealand

Green Lake Landslide is an ancient giant rock slide in gneiss and granodiorite located in the deeply glaciated Fiordland region of New Zealand. The landslide covers an area of 45 km² and has a volume of about 27 km³. It is believed to be New Zealand's largest landslide, and possibly the largest landslide of its type on Earth. It is one of 39 known very large (10⁶–10⁷ m³) and giant (≥10⁸ m³) postglacial landslides in Fiordland discussed in the paper. Green Lake Landslide resulted in the collapse of a 9 km segment of the southern Hunter Mountains. Slide debris moved up to 2.5 km laterally and 700 m vertically, and formed a landslide dam about 800 m high, impounding a lake about 11 km long that was eventually infilled with sediments. Geomorphic evidence supported by radiocarbon dating indicates that Green Lake Landslide probably occurred 12 000–13 000 years ago, near the end of the last (Otira) glaciation. The landslide is described, and its geomorphic significance, age, failure mechanism, cause, and relevance in the region are discussed, in relation to other large landslides and recent earthquake-induced landslides in Fiordland. The slope failure occurred on a low-angle fault zone undercut by glacial erosion, and was probably triggered by strong shaking (MM IX–X) associated with a large (≥ M 7.5–8) earthquake, on the Alpine Fault c. 80 km to the northwest. Geology was a major factor that controlled the style and size of Green Lake landslide, and in that respect it is significantly different from most other gigantic landslides. Future large earthquakes on the Alpine Fault in Fiordland are likely to trigger more very large and giant landslides across the region, causing ground damage and devastation on a scale that has not occurred during the last 160 years, with potentially disastrous effects on towns, tourist centres, roads, and infrastructure. The probability of such an event occurring within the next 50 years may be as high as 45%.     

Models in geography revisited

Agent based models (ABMs) have many applications, and illustrate a rapidly developing field of enquiry, spanning both the physical-mathematical and human-social sciences. ABMs are seen as most appropriate in situations where decisions or actions are distributed around particular locations, and in which structure is viewed as emergent from the interaction between individuals. ABMs may be used either as representational devices, to reproduce the patterns observed or desired in the system of interest, or as foundational tools contributing to the development of social or economic theory. The role and status of models and modelling is itself an instantiation of a wider debate concerning representation and explanation. Today, a case can be made that the nature of explanation and the use of scientific interpretation reflect much less definite and exclusive positions and permit more diverse approaches than hitherto. The underlying proposition of this commentary is, therefore, that the time is right for a positive application of ABMs within the discipline of geography, and for a rediscovery and reappraisal of the richness and depth of insight in the model-building enterprise more generally. First, the context for ABM development and application is set with reference to the agency-structure debate. Second, some aspects of the heritage of models in geography is presented, based upon reviews of two benchmark publications bearing that title. Next, some of the most significant characteristics, uses, potentials and limitations of ABMs, are reviewed. Finally, some constructive ways forward are suggested, as informed by theory and method from the interpretative social sciences.     

Cosmogenic nuclide methods for measuring long-term rates of physical erosion and chemical weathering

Understanding the evolution of geochemical and geomorphic systems requires measurements of long-term rates of physical erosion and chemical weathering. Erosion and weathering rates have traditionally been estimated from measurements of sediment and solute fluxes in streams. However, modern sediment and solute fluxes are often decoupled from long-term rates of erosion and weathering, due to storage or re-mobilization of sediment and solutes upstream from the sampling point. Recently, cosmogenic nuclides such as ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al have become important new tools for measuring long-term rates of physical erosion and chemical weathering. Cosmogenic nuclides can be used to infer the total denudation flux (the sum of the rates of physical erosion and chemical weathering) in actively eroding terrain. Here we review recent work showing how this total denudation flux can be partitioned into its physical and chemical components, using the enrichment of insoluble tracers (such as Zr) in regolith relative to parent rock. By combining cosmogenic nuclide measurements with the bulk elemental composition of rock and soil, geochemists can measure rates of physical erosion and chemical weathering over 1000- to 10,000-year time scales.     

Ground truth seismic events and location capability at Degelen mountain, Kazakhstan

We utilized nuclear explosions from the Degelen Mountain sub-region of the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS), Kazakhstan, to assess seismic location capability directly. Excellent ground truth information for these events was either known or was estimated from maps of the Degelen Mountain adit complex. Origin times were refined for events for which absolute origin time information was unknown using catalog arrival times, our ground truth location estimates, and a time baseline provided by fixing known origin times during a joint hypocenter determination (JHD). Precise arrival time picks were determined using a waveform cross-correlation process applied to the available digital data. These data were used in a JHD analysis. We found that very accurate locations were possible when high precision, waveform cross-correlation arrival times were combined with JHD. Relocation with our full digital data set resulted in a mean mislocation of 2 km and a mean 95% confidence ellipse (CE) area of 6.6 km² (90% CE: 5.1 km²), however, only 5 of the 18 computed error ellipses actually covered the associated ground truth location estimate. To test a more realistic nuclear test monitoring scenario, we applied our JHD analysis to a set of seven events (one fixed) using data only from seismic stations within 40° epicentral distance. Relocation with these data resulted in a mean mislocation of 7.4 km, with four of the 95% error ellipses covering less than 570 km² (90% CE: 438 km²), and the other two covering 1730 and 8869 km² (90% CE: 1331 and 6822 km²). Location uncertainties calculated using JHD often underestimated the true error, but a circular region with a radius equal to the mislocation covered less than 1000 km² for all events having more than three observations.     

In Situ Monitoring of Vapor Phase TCE Using a Chemiresistor Microchemical Sensor

A chemiresistor microchemical sensor has been developed to detect and monitor volatile organic compounds in unsaturated and saturated subsurface environments. A controlled study was conducted at the HAZMAT Spill Center at the Nevada Test Site, where the sensor was tested under a range of temperature, moisture, and trichloroethylene (TCE) concentrations. The sensor responded rapidly when exposed to TCE placed in sand, and it also responded to decreases in TCE vapor concentration when clean air was vented through the system. Variations in temperature and water vapor concentration impacted baseline chemiresistor signals, but at high TCE concentrations the sensor response was dominated by the TCE exposure. Test results showed that the detection limit of the chemiresistor to TCE vapor in the presence of fluctuating environmental variables (i.e., temperature and water vapor concentration) was on the order of 1000 parts per million by volume, which is about an order of magnitude higher than values obtained in controlled laboratory environments. Automated temperature control and preconcentration is recommended to improve the stability and sensitivity of the chemiresistor sensor.