A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures

Natural Hazards - Consequences of urban floods increased and diversified in terms of social, economical and environmental effects, due to the dense and unplanned urbanization in areas at risk of...     

Decadal to millennial-scale periodicities in North Iceland shelf sediments over the last 12 000 cal yr: long-term North Atlantic oceanographic variability and solar forcing

Giant piston core MD99-2269 recovered 25 m of sediment in Hunáfloáall, a deep trough on the North Iceland margin fronting the Iceland Sea, and the site of a shelf sediment drift. The rate of sediment accumulation is 2 m/kyr (5 yr/cm); the core terminated in the Vedde tephra (12 cal ka). The sediment was sampled at between 5 and 50 yr/sample, including rock magnetic, grain-size, and sediment properties. Data reduction was carried out using principal component analysis. Two PC axes for the 5-yr/sample magnetic data are strongly correlated with measures of coercivity (ARM_{20 mT}/ARM) and magnetic concentrations (kARM). In turn ARM_{20 mT}/ARM is highly correlated (negatively) with grain-size and the mean size of the sortable silt fraction. Analyses of the two PC axes with MTM spectral methods indicate a series of significant (>99%) periodicities at millennial to multidecadal scales, including those at 200, 125, and 88 yr which are associated with solar variability. We also document a strong correlation between the sediment magnetic properties and the ∂¹⁸O on benthic foraminifera on the North Iceland inner shelf. We hypothesize that the links between variations in grain-size, magnetic concentrations, and solar forcing are controlled by atmospheric and oceanographic changes linked to changes in the relative advection of Atlantic and polar waters along the North Iceland margin. Today these changes are associated with variations in the deep convection in the Greenland and Iceland Seas. The precise linkages are, however, presently elusive although a combination of coarser sediments and low ∂¹⁸O values define a Holocene thermal maximum between 8 and 6 cal ka.     

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last 230?years

August Sea Surface Temperatures (aSSTs) based on fossil diatom assemblages are generated with 2?year average resolution from a 230-year-long sediment core (Rapid 21-12B), from the Reykjanes Ridge in the subpolar North Atlantic. The results indicate a warming trend of ~0.5°C of the surface waters at the Reykjanes Ridge for the last 230?years. Superimposed on this warming trend there is a multidecadal to decadal aSST variability of up to 1°C. The interval from the 1770s to the 1830s represents the coldest period, whereas ~1860?C1880 represents the warmest period during the last 230?years. The last 25?years is characterized by a warming trend showing strong decadal aSST variability with several warm years, but also the coldest years since the 1820s. The time of these cold years in the mid-1970s, -1980s and -1990s correspond with the documented great salinity anomalies (GSA) in the North Atlantic suggesting increased fluxes of cold, low-salinity waters from the Arctic during the last decades. The aSST record and the August North Atlantic Oscillation (aNAO) index show similar multidecadal-scale variability indicating a close coupling between the oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The aSST record shows a negative correlation with the aNAO indicating cold aSST during the positive aNAO trend and vice versa. Results suggest that the wind driven variation in volume fluxes of the North Atlantic surface waters could be the major mechanism behind the observed relationship.     

Evaluation of karstic aquifers contribution to streams by the statistical analysis of recession curves

Karstic aquifers significantly contribute to streams in most of Turkey’s river basins, so studies on karst water resources have great importance for Turkey. Karstic aquifer contributions are generally emerging at several locations near the river bed and are not readily measured by direct hydrometric methods. In this study, the extent of karstic aquifer contributions to a stream will be investigated by the statistical analysis of recession coefficients of recession curves. Six stream gauging stations on different streams in the western Mediterranean region of Turkey are selected. Recession periods of the streams are simulated by exponential and quadratic recession curve models. Recession coefficient series of the stream gauging stations are statistically investigated. The comparison of various statistical parameters shows that the recession coefficient series are fairly related to the karstic aquifer contributions. Especially, the measure of spread parameters, standard deviation and interquartile range of recession coefficient series are related to the extent of the karstic aquifer contributions to streams.     

Palaeoceanographic changes in the northern Barents Sea during the last 16 000 years – new constraints on the last deglaciation of the Svalbard–Barents Sea Ice Sheet

The sediment core NP05‐71GC, retrieved from 360 m water depth south of Kvitøya, northwestern Barents Sea, was investigated for the distribution of benthic and planktic foraminifera, stable isotopes and sedimentological parameters to reconstruct palaeoceanographic changes and the growth and retreat of the Svalbard–Barents Sea Ice Sheet during the last ～16 000 years. The purpose is to gain better insight into the timing and variability of ocean circulation, climatic changes and ice‐sheet behaviour during the deglaciation and the Holocene. The results show that glaciomarine sedimentation commenced c. 16 000 a BP, indicating that the ice sheet had retreated from its maximum position at the shelf edge around Svalbard before that time. A strong subsurface influx of Atlantic‐derived bottom water occurred from 14 600 a BP during the Bølling and Allerød interstadials and lasted until the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling. In the Younger Dryas cold interval, the sea surface was covered by near‐permanent sea ice. The early Holocene, 11 700–11 000 a BP, was influenced by meltwater, followed by a strong inflow of highly saline and chilled Atlantic Water until c. 8600 a BP. From 8600 to 7600 a BP, faunal and isotopic evidence indicates cooling and a weaker flow of the Atlantic Water followed by a stronger influence of Atlantic Water until c. 6000 a BP. Thereafter, the environment generally deteriorated. Our results imply that (i) the deglaciation occurred earlier in this area than previously thought, and (ii) the Younger Dryas ice sheet was smaller than indicated by previous reconstructions.     

Palaeoenvironmental changes of the last two millennia on the western and northern Svalbard shelf

The western and northern Svalbard continental margins (European Arctic) are environmentally sensitive areas that are dependent on the northward flow of Atlantic Water, the largest heat source of the Arctic Ocean. Two marine sediment records from the Svalbard shelf: Kongsfjorden Trough and Hinlopen Trough, were analysed with regard to the benthic foraminiferal content and lithology to assess the palaeoceanographic evolution during the past two millennia with decadal to multi‐decadal temporal resolution. In both records, an overall gradual decrease of E. excavatum f. clavata during the past two millennia reflects a change towards generally warmer and less glacially influenced conditions, presumably related to enhanced inflow of Atlantic Water (AW). The influence of AW also varied on centennial time scales, as evidenced by faunal and sedimentary shifts occurring almost synchronously at both locations. The period from AD 700 to 1200 was characterized by enhanced inflow of AW, followed by the development of highly productive oceanographic fronts at both localities from AD 1200 to 1500. In contrast, the subsequent interval (AD 1500–1900) shows particularly harsh conditions in the Hinlopen Trough, with significantly reduced foraminiferal flux and sediment input related to perennial sea ice cover. In Kongsfjorden, less severe conditions were observed, indicating that the AW advection continued. The synchronicity of changes in both records demonstrates the effect of the variability in inflow of AW to the Svalbard region during the past 2000 years. Moreover, the records seem to follow climate anomalies, for example the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period, found in the North Atlantic realm.     

The geology and morphology of the Antakya Graben between the Amik Triple Junction and the Cyprus Arc

In southeastern Turkey, the NE-trending Antakya Graben forms an asymmetric depression filled by Pliocene marine siliciclastic sediment, Pleistocene to Recent fluvial terrace sediment, and alluvium. Along the Mediterranean coast of the graben, marine terrace deposits sit at different elevations ranging from 2 to 180 m above present sea level, with ages ranging from MIS 2 to 11. A multisegmented, dominantly sinistral fault lying along the graben may connect the Cyprus Arc in the west to the Amik Triple Junction on the Dead Sea Fault (DSF) in the east. Normal faults, which are younger than the sinistral ones, bound the graben’s southeastern margin. The westward escape of the continental ?skenderun Block, delimited by sinistral fault segments belonging to the DSF in the east and the Eastern Anatolian Fault in the north caused the development of a sinistral transtensional tectonic regime, which has opened the Antakya Graben since the Pliocene. In the later stages of this opening, normal faults developed along the southeastern margin that caused the graben to tilt to the southwest, leading to differential uplift of Mediterranean coastal terraces. Most of these normal faults remain active. In addition to these tectonic movements, Pleistocene sea level changes in the Mediterranean affected the geomorphological evolution of the area.     

Comparison of horizontal ground displacements in Avonside area,Christchurch from air photo,LiDAR and satellite measurements regarding pipeline damage assessment

Recent earthquakes show that pipeline damage is severe in the areas where permanent ground deformations (e.g., liquefaction zones) occur. Ground movement hazard to pipeline systems can be assessed by using ground displacement measurements around the location of pipelines. There are many different ways of measuring ground displacements after an earthquake occur. This paper compares displacements measured in Avonside area, Christchurch, NZ, by using four different ways with respect to their effects on pipeline damage assessments. They are air photo, satellite, high resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys data presented at 4- and 56-m grids acquired before and after the M_w6.2 22 February 2011 earthquake. Avonside area was in the liquefaction zones of the 22 February 2011 earthquake. Where possible, benchmark measurements were also included in the comparisons. In this study, the focus was on asbestos cement and cast iron water pipelines as the length of the pipelines and the number of damages in the study area was much higher compared to other pipe materials, providing sufficient repair rate data passing the screening criteria to develop linear regressions. The correlations between pipeline damage and lateral ground strains were developed by calculating the horizontal strains from these four different type displacements. The comparisons show that satellite imagery is good for estimating total movements but not so good for estimating lateral strains and conversely LiDAR surveys are not so good for estimating total movements, but much better for estimating lateral strains. Hence, pipeline damage correlations with LiDAR calculated strains provide higher determination coefficient (r²) value. The results of comparisons are presented and discussed.     

Markov Models and Polygon Diagrams for Climatological Interpretations of Cyclones and Anticyclones over the Northern Hemisphere

Summary Annual cyclone and anticyclone numbers in addition to the temperature data for the northern hemisphere are processed through simple models leading to meaningful interpretations. Historical climatological characteristics of the cyclone and anticyclone numbers are modeled by a first order Markov process. Statistically indistinguishable synthetic cyclone and anticyclone numbers are generated. Polygon diagrams which show the mutual relationships between average cyclone (anticyclone) numbers and the temperature are employed for finding possible relevant climatological changes during the record period. A polygon diagram concept is proposed and applied in order to identify sub-period warming and cooling spells of any desired short or long term durations and their relationship to the annual number of cyclone (anticyclone) occurrence numbers. The results indicate a decrease (increase) in the cyclone and anticyclone numbers during cooling (warming) periods. The methodologies proposed in this paper can be easily adopted for cyclone and anticyclone numbers modeling in any part of the world. Received July 15, 1997 Revised January 22, 1999     

Marine litter prediction by artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence techniques of neural network and fuzzy systems were applied as alternative methods to determine beach litter grading, based on litter surveys of the Antalya coastline (the Turkish Riviera). Litter measurements were categorized and assessed by artificial intelligence techniques, which lead to a new litter categorization system. The constructed neural network satisfactorily predicted the grading of the Antalya beaches and litter categories based on the number of litter items in the general litter category. It has been concluded that, neural networks could be used for high-speed predictions of litter items and beach grading, when the characteristics of the main litter category was determined by field studies. This can save on field effort when fast and reliable estimations of litter categories are required for management or research studies of beaches--especially those concerned with health and safety, and it has economic implications. The main advantages in using fuzzy systems are that they consider linguistic adjectival definitions, e.g. many/few, etc. As a result, additional information inherent in linguistic comments/refinements and judgments made during field studies can be incorporated in grading systems.