Modelling ice conditions in the easternmost Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea

To model ice conditions in the eastern Gulf of Finland, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is coupled with the advanced sea-ice model HELMI (Haapala et al., 2005). To test the model in extreme situations, the ice pattern in the eastern Gulf of Finland was simulated for a mild ice winter (2007–2008) and for a moderate one (2003–2004). The reference runs were performed on the assumption that the ice in the model domain is fast ice if the sea depth is less than 10 m. Using this assumption, the ice thickness averaged over the Neva Bay (the easternmost part of the Gulf of Finland) is overestimated by the model for almost the entire wintertime in the mild winter and during the ice formation and melting periods in the moderate winter, as compared with the thickness reported in ice charts.     

Water exchange between the inner and outer archipelago areas of the Finnish Archipelago Sea in the Baltic Sea

Ocean Dynamics - We studied the water age and transport of passive tracers in the Archipelago Sea, Baltic Sea, using the COHERENS 3D hydrodynamic model and the OpenDrift Lagrangian particle model....     

The use of Lagrangian trajectories for the identification of the environmentally safe fairways

We propose and test a method for the optimisation of marine fairways to minimise the risk to high-value areas, based on statistical analysis of Lagrangian trajectories of current-driven pollution transport. The offshore areas are quantified according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The gain is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). The use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40% or increase the average time of reaching the pollution to the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea.     

A Lagrangian-trajectory study of a gradually mixed estuary

When modelling is used for investigating estuarine systems, a choice generally has to be made between applying simple mass-balance considerations or using a process-resolving three-dimensional (3-D) numerical circulation model. In the present investigation of the Gulf of Finland, a gradually mixed estuary in the Baltic Sea, it is demonstrated how Lagrangian-trajectory analysis applied to the output from a 3-D model minimizes the disadvantages associated with both of the modelling techniques referred to above. This formalism made it possible to demonstrate that the main part of the Gulf is dominated by water originating from the Baltic proper, and that the most pronounced mixing with fresh water from the river Neva takes place over a limited zone in the inner part of the Gulf. Dynamical insights were furthermore obtained by using the Lagrangian formalism to construct overturning stream-functions for the two source waters.     

Forthcoming Meetings on Planetary Boundary-layer Theory, Modelling and Applications

In this short communication we highlight the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) “Atmospheric Boundary Layers: Modelling and Applications for Environmental Security”, to be held in Dubrovnik, Croatia, 18–22 April 2006 (http:// pbl-nato-arw.dmi.dk) and the “Summer School on Air-Sea Interaction” to be held in Helsinki, Finland, 28 August–1 September 2006 (http://www.scasi.fi). These two events are connected to the ongoing Ev Marie Curie Chair Project “Planetary boundary layers – Theory, modelling and role in earth systems” (PBL – TMRES, Contract MEXC-CT-2003-509742, www.atm.helsinki.fi/PBL/).     

Modelling surface drifting of buoys during a rapidly-moving weather front in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

The Gulf of Finland is an elongated estuary located in the north-eastern extremity of the Baltic Sea. This semi-enclosed sea-area is subject to heavy sea traffic, and is one of the main risk areas for oil accidents in the Baltic. The continuous development and validation of operational particle drift and oil-spill forecasting systems is thus seen to be essential for this sea-area.Here, the results of a three-day drift experiment in May 2003 are discussed. The field studies were performed using GPS-positioned surface floating buoys. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how well models can reproduce the drift of these buoys. Model simulations, both in forecast and hindcast modes, were carried out by three different 3D hydrodynamic models, the results of which are evaluated by comparing the calculated drifts with observations. These models were forced by HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological forecast fields.The simulated drift of the buoys showed a good agreement with observations even when, during the study period, a rapidly-changing wind situation was observed to affect the investigation area; in this situation the winds turned about 100 degrees in half an hour. In such a case it is a very complicated task to forecast the drifters' routes: there is a need to regularly update the meteorological forcing fields and to use these regularly-updated fields throughout the simulations. It is furthermore recommended that forecasts should be made using several circulation models and several meteorological forecasts, in order to get an overview of the accuracy of the forecasted drifts and related differences in between the forecasts.