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排序方式: 共有208条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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In this paper, we compare and contrast a Bayesian spatially varying coefficient process (SVCP) model with a geographically
weighted regression (GWR) model for the estimation of the potentially spatially varying regression effects of alcohol outlets
and illegal drug activity on violent crime in Houston, Texas. In addition, we focus on the inherent coefficient shrinkage
properties of the Bayesian SVCP model as a way to address increased coefficient variance that follows from collinearity in
GWR models. We outline the advantages of the Bayesian model in terms of reducing inflated coefficient variance, enhanced model
flexibility, and more formal measuring of model uncertainty for prediction. We find spatially varying effects for alcohol
outlets and drug violations, but the amount of variation depends on the type of model used. For the Bayesian model, this variation
is controllable through the amount of prior influence placed on the variance of the coefficients. For example, the spatial
pattern of coefficients is similar for the GWR and Bayesian models when a relatively large prior variance is used in the Bayesian
model.
相似文献
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Kastelein RA Verboom WC Jennings N de Haan D van der Heul S 《Marine environmental research》2008,66(3):319-326
Two harbor porpoises in a floating pen were subjected to five pure tone underwater signals of 70 or 120kHz with different signal durations, amplitudes and duty cycles (% of time sound is produced). Some signals were continuous, others were intermittent (duty cycles varied between 8% and 100%). The effect of each signal was judged by comparing the animals' surfacing locations and number of surfacings (i.e. number of respirations) during test periods with those during baseline periods. In all cases, both porpoises moved away from the sound source, but the effect of the signals on respiration rates was negligible. Pulsed 70kHz signals with a source level (SL) of 137dB had a similar effect as a continuous 70kHz signal with an SL of 148dB (re 1muPa, rms). Also, a pulsed 70kHz signal with an SL of 147dB had a much stronger deterring effect than a continuous 70kHz signal with a similar SL. For pulsed 70kHz signals (2s pulse duration, 4s pulse interval, SL 147dB re 1muPa, rms), the avoidance threshold sound pressure level (SPL), in the context of the present study, was estimated to be around 130dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 064 and around 124dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 047. This study shows that ultrasonic pingers (70kHz) can deter harbor porpoises. Such ultrasonic pingers have the advantage that they do not have a "dinner bell" effect on pinnipeds, and probably have no, or less, effect on other marine fauna, which are often sensitive to low frequency sounds. 相似文献
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John G. Pope Jannike Falk-Pedersen Simon Jennings Jake C. Rice Henrik Gislason Niels Daan 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2009,56(21-22):2097
Historically colder regions of the North Atlantic had fisheries dominated by only a few fish species; principally cod and capelin. Possible population dynamic mechanisms that lead to such dominance are investigated by considering how a charmingly simple published multispecies model of the North Sea would react if the system operated at a lower temperature. The existing model equations were modified to describe temperature effects on growth, fecundity and recruitment and the model was rerun based on typical temperatures for the North Sea and a colder system. The results suggest that total fish biomass in the colder system increases but the community is more vulnerable to a given rate of fishing mortality. In the colder system, within species density dependence is reduced but relative predation rates are higher. Consequently, intermediate-sized species are vulnerable to relatively high levels of predation throughout their life history and tend to be excluded, leading to a system dominated by small and large species. The model helps to explain how temperature may govern coexistence and competitive exclusion in fish communities and accounts for the observed dominance of small and large species in Boreal/Arctic ecosystems. 相似文献
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Gorka Merino Manuel Barange Julia L. Blanchard James Harle Robert Holmes Icarus Allen Edward H. Allison Marie Caroline Badjeck Nicholas K. Dulvy Jason Holt Simon Jennings Christian Mullon Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806
Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products. 相似文献
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Local uplift of the tank wall is perhaps the most important characteristic of the seismic behaviour of unanchored liquid storage tanks made out of steel. Such uplift is necessary, because unanchored tanks rely primarily on the weight of the liquid resting on an uplifted portion of the base plate to balance the overturning moments that occur during strong shaking. A simplified method of analysis for static lateral loads is developed, based on the assumption that the restraining action of the base plate can be modelled with equivalent, non-linear springs. This assumption, together with a Fourier decomposition of the displacements, simplifies the problem to the extent that it can be solved on a personal computer. The solutions are compared with those from experiments and those from current U.S. design analysis methods. 相似文献
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The effect of salinity-dependent hydraulic conductivity on saltwater intrusion episodes 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The ionic strength of percolating water can greatly alter a soil's hydraulic conductivity. This appears to be the result of dispersion and/or swelling of clay particles, and can alter hydraulic conductivity by several orders of magnitude.
In this paper, the potential effects of salinity-dependent changes in hydraulic conductivity during saltwater intrusions are analyzed. Results are presented to show that this can increase the degree to which brackish water will penetrate a coastal aquifer. This can also increase the width of the dispersed salt front, and can lead to a much greater circulation of saltwater within the intruding saltwater toe. These results may help to explain field observations that have previously been attributed to “scale-dependent” dispersivity and domain heterogeneity. 相似文献
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