Sensitivity of soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling and the relation between effective,laboratory and in situ estimates

Simulation of soil moisture content requires effective soil hydraulic parameters that are valid at the modelling scale. This study investigates how these parameters can be estimated by inverse modelling using soil moisture measurements at 25 locations at three different depths (at the surface, at 30 and 60 cm depth) on an 80 by 20 m hillslope. The study presents two global sensitivity analyses to investigate the sensitivity in simulated soil moisture content of the different hydraulic parameters used in a one‐dimensional unsaturated zone model based on Richards' equation. For estimation of the effective parameters the shuffled complex evolution algorithm is applied. These estimated parameters are compared to their measured laboratory and in situ equivalents. Soil hydraulic functions were estimated in the laboratory on 100 cm³ undisturbed soil cores collected at 115 locations situated in two horizons in three profile pits along the hillslope. Furthermore, in situ field saturated hydraulic conductivity was estimated at 120 locations using single‐ring pressure infiltrometer measurements. The sensitivity analysis of 13 soil physical parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s), saturated moisture content (θ_s), residual moisture content (θ_r), inverse of the air‐entry value (α), van Genuchten shape parameter (n), Averjanov shape parameter (N) for both horizons, and depth (d) from surface to B horizon) in a two‐layer single column model showed that the parameter N is the least sensitive parameter. K_s of both horizons, θ_s of the A horizon and d were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Distributions over all locations of the effective parameters and the distributions of the estimated soil physical parameters from the undisturbed soil samples and the single‐ring pressure infiltrometer estimates were found significantly different at a 5% level for all parameters except for α of the A horizon and K_s and θ_s of the B horizon. Different reasons are discussed to explain these large differences. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Process length variation of the cyst of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in the North Pacific and Baltic‐Skagerrak region: calibration as an annual density proxy and first evidence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation

Process length variation of cysts of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum (Claparède et Lachmann) Bütschli in surface sediments from the North Pacific was investigated. The average process length showed a significant inverse relation to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = ?0.8674 × average process length + 1029.3 (R² = 0.84), with a standard error of 0.78 kg m^?3. A sediment trap study from Effingham Inlet in British Columbia revealed the same relationship between average process length and local seawater density variations. In the Baltic–Skagerrak region, the average process length variation was related significantly to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = 3.5457 × average process length ? 993.28 (R² = 0.86), with a standard error of 3.09 kg m^?3. These calibrations cannot be reconciled, which accentuates the regional character of the calibrations. This can be related to variations in molecular data (small subunit, long subunit and internal transcribed spacer sequences), which show the presence of several genotypes and the occurrence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation within this species. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modulation of the inflow into the Caribbean Sea by North Brazil Current rings

A two-year long record from a triangular mooring array between the Lesser Antilles islands Tobago, Barbados, and St. Lucia is used to investigate the inflow into the Caribbean Sea, the amount of South Atlantic Water (SAW) carried with the inflow, and the role of North Brazil Current (NBC) rings in the observed variability. The data set consists of time series from temperature/conductivity recorders and current meters in the moorings, bottom-mounted inverted echo sounders at the Tobago and St. Lucia mooring positions, and supplementary shipboard measurements. The acoustic travel time measurements of the inverted echo sounders and the conductivity/temperature time series are used for continuous estimation of dynamic height profiles and geostrophic currents between the surface and 1000 dbar as well as the amount of SAW found at the mooring positions.The observations show a domination of intraseasonal variability between 0 and 15 Sv, superimposed on the long-term fluctuations. With time scales of one to three months, these represent the signature of the NBC rings. The baroclinic transport time series shows nine periods of increased variability, indicative of the rings interacting with the Lesser Antilles island arc; with the exception of one, these periods were associated with corresponding sea surface height anomalies. No marked seasonality was observed in the transport variability or the ring frequency.The arrival of individual rings leads to a weakening of the inflow into the Caribbean. Nevertheless, the rings carry large amounts of SAW into the area, and the immediate increase of the transport towards the end of a ring event suggests a subsequent flow of this SAW-rich water into the Caribbean. At St. Lucia, rings sometimes cause a short-term decrease of SAW content, indicative of an influx of northern hemispheric water and a blocking situation. The average transport of SAW into the Caribbean south of St. Lucia during the observations amounted to 5.5 Sv, with no significant seasonal cycle, but a small positive trend in SAW fraction as well as in transport of about 15% and 1 Sv, respectively; a corresponding trend in the baroclinic volume transport was not observed.     

Including prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling

In this paper we propose a methodology to include prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters for modelling the soil moisture content in the unsaturated zone. Laboratory measurements on undisturbed soil cores were used to estimate the moisture retention curve and hydraulic conductivity curve parameters. The soil moisture content was measured at 25 locations along three transects and at three different depths (surface, 30 and 60 cm) on an 80×20 m hillslope for the year 2001. Soil cores were collected in 84 locations situated in three profile pits along the hillslope. For the estimation of the effective soil hydraulic parameters the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values was used as prior information. A two-horizon single column 1D MIKE SHE model based on Richards' equation was set-up for nine soil moisture measurement locations along the middle transect of the hillslope. The goal of the model is to simulate the soil moisture profile at each location. The shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm has been applied to estimate effective model parameters using either wide parameter ranges, referred to as the ‘no-prior’ case, or the joint probability distribution of measured parameter values as prior information (‘prior’ case). When the prior information is incorporated in the SCE optimisation the goodness-of-fit of the model predictions is only slightly worse compared to when no-prior information is incorporated. However, the effective parameter estimates are more realistic when the prior information is incorporated. For both the no-prior and prior case the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure (GLUE) was subsequently used to estimate the uncertainty bounds (UB) on the model predictions. When incorporating the prior information more parameter sets were accepted for the estimation of the predictive uncertainty and the parameter values were more realistic. Moreover, UB better enclosed the observations. Thus, incorporating prior information in GLUE reduces the amount of model evaluations needed to obtain sufficient behavioural parameter sets. The results indicate the importance of prior information in the SCE and GLUE parameter estimation strategies.     

Incorporating rainfall intensity into daily rainfall records for simulating runoff and infiltration into soil profiles

Hydrological modelling often implies the use of rainfall data. Its quality and resolution directly affect the accuracy of the simulation results. This study illustrates that a simple approach of incorporating rainfall intensity information in daily rainfall records significantly improves the simulation of surface runoff and rainfall infiltration into soil profiles. The procedure is developed using a frequency analysis on rainfall data of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, collected with a resolution of 10 min and for a consecutive period of 61 years. The frequency analysis of the data allowed the incorporation of rainfall intensity information into daily rainfall records. To test the effect of this approach the surface runoff and water flow into three different soil types was simulated using the HYDRUS‐1D model for a typical dry, normal and wet year. The simulation results whereby the observed 10‐min rainfall data was used as input were considered as the reference. Comparative analysis revealed that the simulations using the 10 min rainfall data deducted from the incorporation of rainfall intensity into daily rainfall records, deviate a maximum 1·2% from the reference and produce much better results than the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve‐number method because rainfall intensity is considered in the procedure presented. The SCS curve‐number method typical overestimates surface runoff during periods of low rainfall intensity (winter) and underestimate runoff during periods of high rainfall intensities (summer). Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing progress in MRV capacity development: experience with a scorecard approach

This article reports experiences gathered in 12 developing countries in Latin America and Africa with capacity development for national GHG inventory systems. The national systems and their ability to deliver on measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) requirements is assessed using a scorecard that covers the transparency, accuracy, completeness, consistency, and comparability of the GHG inventory as well as its institutional set-up and management aspects. The analysis shows that a quantitative assessment of GHG inventory systems with a scorecard is feasible and useful, and could commonly be used for tracking progress in MRV capacity development.

Policy relevance

A large number of capacity development initiatives are underway to advance national GHG inventory systems in developing countries, particularly in the land-use sector. These aim to promote the reliable MRV of GHG emissions and removals, which is expected to underpin developing countries’ contributions to global mitigation efforts, including through results-based payments. Although MRV is a cornerstone of climate change policy and despite widespread capacity gaps, there is little conclusive evidence about the effectiveness of such capacity development. This article relates the positive experience from one initiative, the Capacity Development for REDD+ project, which employed a novel, scorecard-based approach to results monitoring. Considerable progress is observed and provides reassurance regarding the soundness of development agencies’ significant investments in MRV. Disaggregating scores by countries and by underlying criteria also provides insights to prioritize further investments.     

Coccolithophores as palaeoecological indicators for shifts of the ITCZ in the Cariaco Basin during the late Quaternary

Coccoliths were studied from the ODP Hole 1002C and core PL07‐39PC in the Cariaco Basin. Increases in Emiliania huxleyi are synchronous with decreases of Gephyrocapsa oceanica and vice versa. A new index (GEX) based on the relative abundances of these two taxa is proposed, and correlates with various other proxies. It is shown that GEX can serve as upwelling proxy. This confirms that the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifted north during the Bølling/Allerød, south during the Younger Dryas and back north during the Preboreal. The upwelling proxy shows few discrepancies with the terrigenous record. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transport of South Atlantic water through the passages south of Guadeloupe and across 16°N, 2000–2004

CTD, vessel-mounted ADCP and LADCP measurements in the Caribbean passages south of Guadeloupe (three repeats) and along 16°N (five repeats) were carried out between December 2000 and July 2004. The CTD data were used to calculate the contribution of South Atlantic water (SAW) in the upper 1200 m between the isopycnals σ_θ=24.5 and 27.6. Northern and southern source water masses are defined and an isopycnal mixing approach is applied. The SAW fractions are then combined with the ADCP flow field to calculate the transport of SAW into the Caribbean and across 16°N. The SAW inflow into the Caribbean through the passages south of Guadeloupe ranges from 7.6 to 11.6 Sv, which is 50–75% of the total inflow. The mean (9.1±2.2 Sv) is in the range of previous estimates. Ambiguities in the northern and southern source water masses of the salinity maximum water permitted us only to calculate the contribution of SAW from the eastern source in this water mass. We estimated the additional SAW transport by the western source to be of the order of 1.9±0.7 Sv. The calculation of the SAW transport across 16°N was hampered by the presence of several anticyclonic rings from the North Brazil Current (NBC) retroflection region, some of the rings were subsurface intensified. Provided that the rings observed at 16°N are typical rings and that all rings which are annually produced in the NBC retroflection area (6.5–8.5 per year) reach 16°N, the SAW ring transport across 16°N is calculated to 5.3±0.7 Sv. From the 5 repeats at 16°N, only two showed a net northward flow, suggesting that the mean northward SAW transport is dominated by ring advection. The joint SAW transports of the Caribbean inflow (9.1 Sv) and the flow across 16°N (5.3 Sv) sum up to 14.4 Sv. The transport increases to 16.3 Sv if the additional SAW transport from the western source of SMW (1.9±0.7 Sv) is included. These transport estimates and the following implications depend strongly on the assumption that the surface water in the Caribbean inflow is of South Atlantic origin. The transport estimates are, however, in the range of the inverse model calculations for the net cross-hemispheric flow. About 30–40% of this transport is intermediate water from the South Atlantic, presumably supporting studies which found the contributions of intermediate and upper warm water to be of a comparable magnitude. For the upper warm water (σ_θ<27.1), the Caribbean inflow seems to be the major path (7.9±1.6 Sv), the ring induced transport across 16°N is about 30% of that value. The intermediate water transport across 16°N was calculated to be 2.3–3.6 Sv, the inflow into the Caribbean is slightly smaller (1.5–2.4 Sv).