Robust decision-making is being increasingly used to support environmental resources decisions and policy analysis under changing climate and society. In this context, a robust decision is a decision that is as much as possible insensitive to a large degree of uncertainty and ensures certain performance across multiple plausible futures. Yet, the concept of robustness is neither unique nor static. Multiple robustness metrics, such as maximin, optimism-pessimism, max regret, have been proposed in the literature, reflecting diverse optimistic/pessimistic attitudes by the decision maker. Further, these attitudes can evolve in time as a response to sequences of favorable (or adverse) events, inducing possible dynamic changes in the robustness metrics. In this paper, we explore the impact of alternative definitions of robustness and their evolution in time for a case of water resources system management under changing climate. We study the decisions of the Lake Como operator, who is called to regulate the lake by balancing irrigation supply and flood control, under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Results show a considerable variability in the system performance across multiple robustness metrics. In fact, the mis-definition of the actual decision maker’s attitude biases the simulation of its future decisions and produces a general underestimation of the system performance. The analysis of the dynamic evolution of the decision maker’s preferences further confirms the potentially strong impact of changing robustness definition on the decision-making outcomes. Climate change impact assessment studies should therefore include the definition of robustness among the uncertain parameters of the problem in order to analyze future human decisions under uncertainty. 相似文献
In this paper we are going to review the latest estimates for the particle background expected on the X-IFU instrument onboard of the ATHENA mission. The particle background is induced by two different particle populations: the so called “soft protons” and the Cosmic rays. The first component is composed of low energy particles (< 100s keV) that get funnelled by the mirrors towards the focal plane, losing part of their energy inside the filters and inducing background counts inside the instrument sensitivity band. The latter component is induced by high energy particles (> 100 MeV) that possess enough energy to cross the spacecraft and reach the detector from any direction, depositing a small fraction of their energy inside the instrument. Both these components are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations and the latest results are presented here. 相似文献
The effects of low-temperature on the crystal structure of a natural epidote [Ca1.925Fe0.745Al2.265Ti0.004Si3.037O12(OH), a = 8.8924(7), b = 5.6214(3), c = 10.1547(6)? and β = 115.396(8)° at room conditions, Sp. Gr. P21/m] have been investigated with a series of structure refinements down to 100 K on the basis of X-ray single-crystal diffraction
data. The reflection conditions confirm that the space group is maintained within the T-range investigated. Structural refinements at all temperatures show the presence of Fe3+ at the octahedral M(3) site only [%Fe(M3) = 70.6(4)% at 295 K]. Only one independent proton site was located and two possible
H-bonds occur, with O(10) as donor and O(4) and O(2) as acceptors. The H-bonding scheme is maintained down to 100 K and is
supported by single crystal room-T polarised FTIR data. FTIR Spectra over the region 4,000–2,500 cm−1 are dominated by the presence of a strongly pleochroic absorption feature which can be assigned to protonation of O(10)–O(4).
Previously unobserved splitting of this absorption features is consistent with a NNN influence due to the presence of Al and
Fe3+ on the nearby M(3) site. An additional relatively minor absorption feature in FTIR spectra can be tentatively assigned to
protonation of O(10)–O(2). Low-T does not affect significantly the tetrahedral and octahedral bond distances and angles, even when distances are corrected
for “rigid body motions”. A more significant effect is observed for the bond distances of the distorted Ca(1)- and Ca(2)-polyhedra,
especially when corrected for “non-correlated motion”. The main low-T effect is observed on the vibrational regime of the atomic sites, and in particular for the two Ca-sites. A significant reduction
of the magnitude of the thermal displacement ellipsoids, with a variation of Ueq (defined as one-third of the trace of the orthogonalised Uij tensor) by ~40% is observed for the Ca-sites between 295 and 100 K. Within the same T-range, the Ueq of the octahedral and oxygen sites decrease similarly by ~35%, whereas those of the tetrahedral cations by ~22%. 相似文献
Since 2002 the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS) in Udine (Italy), the Agencija Republike Slovenije za Okolje (ARSO) in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna (Austria), are collecting, analyzing, archiving and exchanging seismic data in real time, initially in the framework of the EU Interreg IIIa Italia-Austria project “Trans-national seismological networks in the South-Eastern Alps”. As outcome of the successful cooperation, in the 2013 OGS, ARSO and ZAMG decided to officially merge their seismic monitoring efforts into the “Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network—CE3RN”. This work reports the results of a nine-month real-time test of the earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm probabilistic and evolutionary early warning system carried out at the CE3RN. The study allowed identifying the actions to be implemented in order to let the CE3RN become in the next future an efficient cross-border EEW system.
This paper presents an example of application of the double solid reactant method (DSRM) of Accornero and Marini (Environmental
Geology, 2007a), an effective way for modeling the fate of several dissolved trace elements during water–rock interaction. The EQ3/6 software
package was used for simulating the irreversible water–rock mass transfer accompanying the generation of the groundwaters
of the Porto Plain shallow aquifer, starting from a degassed diluted crateric steam condensate. Reaction path modeling was
performed in reaction progress mode and under closed-system conditions. The simulations assumed: (1) bulk dissolution (i.e.,
without any constraint on the kinetics of dissolution/precipitation reactions) of a single solid phase, a leucite-latitic
glass, and (2) precipitation of amorphous silica, barite, alunite, jarosite, anhydrite, kaolinite, a solid mixture of smectites,
fluorite, a solid mixture of hydroxides, illite-K, a solid mixture of saponites, a solid mixture of trigonal carbonates and
a solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates. Analytical concentrations of major chemical elements and several trace elements
(Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Sr and Ba) in groundwaters were satisfactorily reproduced. In addition to these simulations,
similar runs for a rhyolite, a latite and a trachyte permitted to calculate major oxide contents for the authigenic paragenesis
which are comparable, to a first approximation, with the corresponding data measured for local altered rocks belonging to
the silicic, advanced argillic and intermediate argillic alteration facies. The important role played by both the solid mixture
of trigonal carbonates as sequestrator of Mn, Zn, Cu and Ni and the solid mixture of orthorhombic carbonates as scavenger
of Sr and Ba is emphasized.
A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe3+Ge2O6, monoclinic s.g. P21/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) Å, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) Å3, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P21/c to C2/c at a transition temperature Ttr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below Ttr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > Ttr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the $(\bar{1}\,0\,1) A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe3+Ge2O6, monoclinic s.g. P21/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) ?, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) ?3, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters
and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P21/c to C2/c at a transition temperature Ttr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds
to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below Ttr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > Ttr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the ([`1] 0 1)(\bar{1}\,0\,1) plane, mostly along [0 1 0], and pure shear in the (0 1 0) plane due to the decrease of β. From comparison with silicate analogues, the germanate clinopyroxenes are more expansible, while the P21/c expands more than the C2/c phase. The evolution of Q2 (calculated as the normalized intensity of b-type reflections) with T in the framework of the Landau theory has been done using a standard expression for a first order phase transition. We observe
a jump of Q02 = 0.538(2) at Ttr, with Tc of 481(7) K, b/a = −2,290 K, and c/a = 3,192 K, and thus far from being tri-critical point. A closely related composition (LiFe3+Si2O6) shows an equivalent phase transition at 228 K, which is very close to the tri-critical point and 561 K cooler. This result
indicates that a change in the composition of tetrahedral sites can have dramatic effects on the P21/c ↔ C2/c displacive phase transition in clinopyroxenes. The major changes observed in the evolution of the crystal structure with
T are observed in the M2 polyhedron, with a volume decrease by ca. 13.3%, compared to ca. 1.3% observed in the M1 polyhedron.
The tetrahedra behave as rigid units with neither a significant change of volume at T > Ttr (<1‰), nor a change of tilting of the basal plane. No change in coordination is observed at T > Ttr in the M2 polyhedron, which remains sixfold coordinated although a strong deformation of this polyhedron is observed. This
deformation is related to a strong change by 51.4° at Ttr of the kinking angle (O3–O3–O3 angle) of the B-chain of tetrahedra, which switches from O-rotated to S-rotated [from 143.3(5)°
to 194.7(6)°]. The A-chain is S-rotated at T < Ttr [206.8(5)° at 703 K] and extends by 12° at the transition. 相似文献
Mineralogy and Petrology - Limestone represents the main raw material for ordinary Portland cement clinker production. In this study eight natural limestones from different geological environments... 相似文献