Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

The three-dimensional geometry of the heliospheric current sheet

The three-dimensional geometry of the heliospheric current sheet seen from fixed points in interplanetary space is constructed for idealized (sinusoidal) magnetic neutral lines (equators) and for an observed magnetic equator on the basis of the “kinematic method” developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982). The cross-sections of the wavy current sheet at distances 1, 2 and 5 a.u. are also constructed for the idealized magnetic neutral lines.     

A simulation study of distortion of the heliospheric sheet caused by solar activity

During major geomagnetic storms, the interplanetary magnetic field angle φ (phi) changes often abruptly, either from 135° to 315° or 315° to 135°, suggesting that the heliospheric current sheet is pushed upward or downward by disturbed solar wind. The distortion of the heliospheric current sheet by three successive solar flares is simulated to show that such a flapping motion can occur.     

X-ray absorption in Seyfert 2 galaxies

We have studied the correlation among X-ray absorption, optical reddening and nuclear dust morphology in Seyfert 2 galaxies. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) the Balmer decrement and the amount of X-ray absorption are anticorrelated over a wide range of column density,     – the correlation no longer applies to Compton-thick objects     , although they span a comparable range in Balmer decrement; (ii) Compton-thin Seyfert 2s seem to prefer nuclear environments, which are rich in dust on scales of hundreds of parsecs. On the other hand, Compton-thick Seyferts indifferently exhibit 'dust-poor' and 'dust-rich' environments. These results support an extension of the Seyfert unification scenario (as recently proposed by Matt ), where Compton-thick Seyfert 2s are observed through compact 'torii', whereas Compton-thin ones are obscured by dust on much larger scales.     

Tectonic controls on metamorphism, partial melting, and intrusion: timing and duration of regional metamorphism and magmatism in the Ni de Massif, Turkey

Mafic high-pressure granulite, eclogite and pyroxenite xenoliths have been collected from a Mesozoic volcaniclastic diatreme in Xinyang, near south margin of the Sino-Korean Craton (SKC). The high-pressure granulite xenoliths are mainly composed of fine-grained granoblasts of Grt+Cpx+Pl+Hbl±Kfs±Q±Ilm with relict porphyritic mineral assemblage of Grt+Cpx±Pl±Rt. P–T estimation indicates that the granoblastic assemblage crystallized at 765–890 °C and 1.25–1.59 GPa, corresponding to crustal depths of ca. 41–52 km with a geotherm of 75–80 mW/m². Calculated seismic velocities (V_p) of high-pressure granulites range from 7.04 to 7.56 km/s and densities (D) from 3.05 to 3.30 g/cm³. These high-pressure granulite xenoliths have different petrographic and geochemical features from the Archean mafic granulites. Elevated geotherm and petrographic evidence imply that the lithosphere of this craton was thermally disturbed in the Mesozoic prior to eruption of the host diatreme. These samples have sub-alkaline basaltic compositions, equivalent to olivine– and quartz–tholeiite. REE patterns are flat to variably LREE-enriched (La_N/Yb_N=0.98–9.47) without Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*=0.95–1.11). They possess 48–127 ppm Ni and 2–20 ppm Nb with Nb/U and La/Nb ratios of 13–54 and 0.93–4.75, respectively, suggesting that these high-pressure granulites may be products of mantle-derived magma underplated and contaminated at the base of the lower crust. This study also implies that up to 10 km Mesozoic lowermost crust was delaminated prior to eruption of the Cenozoic basalts on the craton.     

Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation and climatic history of the Cass Basin, central South Island, New Zealand

Lithology, pollen, macrofossils, and stable carbon isotopes from an intermontane basin bog site in southern New Zealand provide a detailed late-glacial and early Holocene vegetation and climate record. Glacial retreat occurred before 17,000 cal yr B.P., and tundra-like grassland–shrubland occupied the basin shortly after. Between 16,500 and 14,600 cal yr B.P., a minor regional expansion of forest patches occurred in response to warming, but the basin remained in shrubland. Forest retreated between 14,600 and 13,600 cal yr B.P., at about the time of the Antarctic Cold Reversal. At 13,600 cal yr B.P., a steady progression from shrubland to tall podocarp forest began as the climate ameliorated. Tall, temperate podocarp trees replaced stress-tolerant shrubs and trees between 12,800 and 11,300 cal yr B.P., indicating sustained warming during the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC). Stable isotopes suggest increasing atmospheric humidity from 11,800 to 9300 cal yr B.P. Mild (annual temperatures at least 1°C higher than present), and moist conditions prevailed from 11,000 to 10,350 cal yr B.P. Cooler, more variable conditions followed, and podocarp forest was completely replaced by montane Nothofagus forest at around 7500 cal yr B.P. with the onset of the modern climate regime. The Cass Basin late-glacial climate record closely matches the Antarctic ice core records and is in approximate antiphase with the North Atlantic.