Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

培矮64S冷灌繁种技术研究

通过对低温敏核不育系培矮６４Ｓ育性敏感期间冷水处理后温度场分布特征和自交结实率的资料分析，得出培矮６４Ｓ的灌水始期是冷灌后的见穗期往前推１８天，终止期为见穗期往前推３天，灌水深度前１０天为１５ｃｍ，，后５天为２０ｃｍ，，为“冷繁”技术在生产上应用提供了理论依据。     

Genetic stock identification of immature chum salmon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus keta</Emphasis>) in the western Bering Sea, 2004

Genetic stock identification studies have been widely applied to Pacific salmon species to estimate stock composition of complex mixed-stock fisheries. In a September-October 2004 survey, 739 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) specimens were collected from 23 stations in the western Bering Sea. We determined the genetic stock composition of immature chum salmon based on the previous mitochondria DNA baseline. Each regional estimate was computed based on the conditional maximum likelihood method using 1,000 bootstrap resampling and then pooled to the major regional groups: Korea - Japan - Primorie (KJP) / Russia (RU) / Northwest Alaska (NWA) / Alaska Peninsula - Southcentral Alaska - Southeast Alaska - British Columbia - Washington (ONA). The stock composition of immature chum salmon in the western Bering Sea was a mix of 0.424 KJP, 0.421 RU, 0.116 NWA, and 0.039 ONA stocks. During the study period, the contribution of Asian chum salmon stocks gradually changed from RU to KJP stock. In addition, North American populations from NWA and ONA were small but present near the vicinity of the Russian coast and the Commander Islands, suggesting that the study areas in the western Bering Sea were an important migration route for Pacific chum salmon originating both from Asia and North America during the months of September and October. These results make it possible to better understand the chum salmon stock composition of the mixed-stock fisheries in the western Bering Sea and the stock-specific distribution pattern of chum salmon on the high-seas.     

Reliability analysis of circular tunnel under hydrostatic stress field

The first-order reliability method (FORM) is used to calculate the reliability index of a circular tunnel subjected to a hydrostatic stress field. The random variables are first assumed to follow the normal distribution. Comparison between analysis using negatively correlated and uncorrelated friction angle and cohesion indicates that the results of reliability analysis are conservative if negative correlation among strength parameters is not modeled. The reliability analysis involving correlated non-normal distributions is also investigated. The probability density functions are obtained from reliability indices and compared to those generated from Monte Carlo simulations. Reliability-based design of tunnel support pressure is also illustrated.     

A self-consistent model of a thermally balanced quiescent prominence in magnetostatic equilibrium in a uniform gravitational field

We present a theoretical model of quiescent prominences in the form of an infinite vertical sheet. Self-consistent solutions are obtained by integrating simultaneously the set of nonlinear equations of magnetostatic equilibrium and thermal balance. The basic features of the models are: (1) The prominence matter is confined to a sheet and supported against gravity by a bowed magnetic field. (2) The thermal flux is channelled along magnetic field lines. (3) The thermal flux is everywhere balanced by Low's (1975b) hypothetical heat sink which is proportional to the local density. (4) A constant component of the magnetic field along the length of the prominence shields the cool plasma from the hot surrounding. We assume that the prominence plasma emits more radiation than it absorbs from the radiation fields of the photosphere, chromosphere and corona, and we interpret the above hypothetical heat sink to represent the amount of radiative loss that must be balanced by a nonradiative energy input. Using a central density and temperature of 10¹¹ particles cm^–3 and 5000 K respectively, a magnetic field strength between 2 to 10 gauss and a thermal conductivity that varies linearly with temperature, we discuss the physical properties implied by the model. The analytic treatment can also be carried out for a class of more complex thermal conductivities. These models provide a useful starting point for investigating the combined requirements of magnetostatic equilibrium and thermal balance in the quiescent prominence.     

Effects of kelp Ecklonia maxima inclusion in formulated feed on the growth,feed utilisation and gut microbiota of South African abalone Haliotis midae

The effect of kelp Ecklonia maxima inclusion in formulated feeds on abalone growth and gut bacterial communities has not been previously investigated in South Africa. An eight-month on-farm growth trial was conducted with sub-adult Haliotis midae (～43 mm shell length) fed graded levels of kelp in formulated feeds. Kelp inclusion (0.44–3.54% of pellet dry mass) promoted faster growth (65.7–74.5% total mass gain), with better feed and protein conversions (apparent feed conversion ratio [FCR] 1.4–1.8, apparent protein efficiency ratio [PER] 2.3–2.7), as compared with the non-supplemented feed (52.3% total mass gain, FCR 2.1, PER 1.9; p < 0.001). Abalone-gut bacterial DNA was sequenced using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing and the sequences were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) at a 97% similarity level. A supplementary 16S rRNA gene denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis was employed. The dominant OTUs differed in terms of their relative abundances, with an autochthonous Mycoplasma strain being significantly more abundant (p = 0.03) in the gut of abalone fed a kelp-supplemented feed. The DGGE band patterns displayed higher within-group variability for abalone fed the control diet, suggesting that dietary kelp inclusion promotes gut-bacteria homeostasis. This may contribute to better feed utilisation and growth in abalone fed kelp-supplemented feeds.     

Age verification,growth and life history of rubyfish Plagiogeneion rubiginosum

Age verification of rubyfish (Plagiogeneion rubiginosum) was sought using the bomb radiocarbon chronometer procedure. Stable isotopes were investigated for life history characteristics. Radiocarbon (¹⁴C) and stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) levels were measured in micro-samples from five otoliths that had been aged using a zone count method. All the core ¹⁴C measurements were ‘pre-bomb’ indicating ages of at least 45 years, and the ¹⁴C measurements across the otolith sections suggested that the zone-count ageing method described herein is not biased. Maximum estimated age was 100 years. There was no significant between-sex difference in the von Bertalanffy growth curves. The δ¹⁸O values indicated that rubyfish are near-surface as juveniles, and move deeper with age. Adults appear to reside in 600–1000 m; this is deeper than most trawl-capture data suggest, but not implausible, and has stock assessment implications. The δ¹³C values reflect fish metabolic rates, trophic feeding levels and oceanographic conditions. The stable isotopes record the environmental life history of each fish, and have value in distinguishing stocks and/or indicating vertical and latitudinal migratory patterns.     

A Neural Network Landuse Classifier for SAR Images Using Textural and Fractal Information

Abstract

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have recently been popularly used in image classification. Input features to most ANNs are extracted based on a one class per pixel basis. This requires a large number of training samples and thus a slow training rate. In this paper, we describe the use of a windowing technique to extract textural features such as average intensity, second moment of intensity histogram and fractal surface dimension from an image. This method of image characterization reduces the number of training samples efficiently, yet retains a reasonable overall classification accuracy. The ANN is trained based on the back‐error propagation algorithm. The method is applied for landuse classification of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. An example is given for a site in Kedah State, Malaysia. The SAR images (HH,HV,VV) were taken by the Canadian Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) CV‐580 airborne C‐band SAR system in November 1993 during their GlobeSAR mission in Malaysia. These multi‐polarization SAR images are co‐registered with a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) channel 5 image from same area. An overall classification accuracy of about 86.95% is achieved using windowing technique, as compared to 68.22% based on one class per pixel approach. This shows that through fractal and textural information, the windowing technique when applied in an ANN classifier has a great potential in remote sensing applications.     

Solar activity and the corona

This review puts together what we have learned about coronal structures and phenomenology to synthesize a physical picture of the corona as a voluminous, thermally and electrically highly-conducting atmosphere responding dynamically to the injection of magnetic flux from below. The synthesis describes complementary roles played by the magnetic heating of the corona, the different types of flares, and the coronal mass ejections as physical processes by which magnetic flux and helicity make their way from below the photosphere into the corona, and, ultimately, into interplanetary space. In these processes, a physically meaningful interplay among dissipative magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, ideal ordered flows, and magnetic helicity determines how and when the rich variety of relatively long-lived coronal structures, spawned by the emerged magnetic flux, will evolve quasi-steadily or erupt with the impressive energies characteristic of flares and coronal mass ejections. Central to this picture is the suggestion, based on recent theoretical and observational works, that the the emerged flux may take the form of a twisted flux rope residing principally in the corona. Such a flux rope is identified with the low-density cavity at the base of a coronal helmet, often but not always encasing a quiescent prominence. The flux rope may either be bodily transported into the corona from below the photosphere, or reform out of a state of flaring turbulence under some suitable constraint of magnetic-helicity conservation. The appeal of this synthesis is its physical simplicity and the manner it relates a large set of diverse phenomena into a self-consistent whole. The implications of this view point are discussed.The topics covered are: the large-scale corona; helmet streamers; quiescent prominences; coronal mass ejections; flares and heating; magnetic reconnection and magnetic helicity; and, the hydromagnetics of magnetic flux emergence.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.