Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland

When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.     

Revisiting the existence of an effective stress for wet granular soils with micromechanics

A possible effective stress variable for wet granular materials is numerically investigated based on an adapted discrete element method (DEM) model for an ideal three‐phase system. The DEM simulations consider granular materials made of nearly monodisperse spherical particles, in the pendular regime with the pore fluid mixture consisting of distinct water menisci bridging particle pairs. The contact force‐related stress contribution to the total stresses is isolated and tested as the effective stress candidate for dense or loose systems. It is first recalled that this contact stress tensor is indeed an adequate effective stress that describes stress limit states of wet samples with the same Mohr‐Coulomb criterion associated with their dry counterparts. As for constitutive relationships, it is demonstrated that the contact stress tensor used in conjunction with dry constitutive relations does describe the strains of wet samples during an initial strain regime but not beyond. Outside this so‐called quasi‐static strain regime, whose extent is much greater for dense than loose materials, dramatic changes in the contact network prevent macroscale contact stress‐strain relationships to apply in the same manner to dry and unsaturated conditions. The presented numerical results also reveal unexpected constitutive bifurcations for the loose material, related to stick‐slip macrobehavior.     

The MPE X-ray test facility PANTER: Calibration of hard X-ray (15–50 kev) optics

The Max-Planck-Institut für extraterrestrische Physik (MPE) in Garching, Germany, uses its large X-ray beam line facility PANTER for testing X-ray astronomical instrumentation. A number of telescopes, gratings, filters, and detectors, e.g. for astronomical satellite missions like Exosat, ROSAT, Chandra (LETG), BeppoSAX, SOHO (CDS), XMM-Newton, ABRIXAS, Swift (XRT), have been successfully calibrated in the soft X-ray energy range (< 15keV). Moreover, measurements with mirror test samples for new missions like ROSITA and XEUS have been carried out at PANTER. Here we report on an extension of the energy range, enabling calibrations of hard X-ray optics over the energy range 15–50 keV. Several future X-ray astronomy missions (e.g., Simbol-X, Constellation-X, XEUS) have been proposed, which make use of hard X-ray optics based on multilayer coatings. Such optics are currently being developed by the Osservatorio Astronomico di Brera (OAB), Milano, Italy, and the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA), Cambridge, MA, USA. These optics have been tested at the PANTER facility with a broad energy band beam (up to 50 keV) using the XMM-Newton EPIC-pn flight spare CCD camera with its good intrinsic energy resolution, and also with monochromatic X-rays between C-K (0.277 keV) and Cu-Kα (8.04 keV). PACS: 95.55.Ka, 95.55.Aq, 41 50.+h, 07.85.Fv     

Mezen Bay—a key area for understanding Weichselian glaciations in northern Russia

Sediment successions in coastal cliffs around Mezen Bay, southeastern White Sea, record an unusually detailed history of former glaciations, interstadial marine and fluvial events from the Weichselian. A regional glaciation model for the Weichselian is based on new data from the Mezen Bay area and previously published data from adjacent areas. Following the Mikulinian (Eemian) interglacial a shelf‐centred glaciation in the Kara Sea is reflected in proglacial conditions at 100–90 ka. A local ice‐cap over the Timan ridge existed between 75 and 65 ka. Renewed glaciation in the Kara Sea spread southwestwards around 60 ka only, interrupted by a marine inundation, before it advanced to its maximum position at about 55–50 ka. After a prolonged ice‐free period, the Scandinavian ice‐sheet invaded the area from the west and terminated east of Mezen Bay about 17 ka. The previously published evidence of a large ice‐dammed lake in the central Arkhangelsk region, Lake Komi, finds no support in this study. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigations on geomagnetic reversals in Icelandic lavas, 1953–78

Recent reviews of the development of palaeomagnetic techniques in geology have shown that palaeomagnetism has contributed significantly to the acceptance of new concepts in global tectonics. The present paper extends Frankel's (1987) review of palaeomagnetic work on the basalt lava sequences of Iceland in the early 1950s. These lavas provide some of the most complete series of reliable ‘spot readings’ of the geomagnetic field available. It is shown that research on Icelandic basalts has continued to be of importance in improving our understanding of palaeomagnetism and its applications.     

The expansive nondecelerative universe

(a) Hubble's discovery of the expansion of the Universe makes it possible to choose unambiguously from the models described by Friedmann's equations of universe dynamics. (b) From the present temperature of the cosmic microwave background radiation, the specific entropy in the matter era and the model properties of the expansive nondecelerative universe, we can determine the present parameters of our Universe with deviations smaller than 2.2%.     

Rapid Lateglacial tree population dynamics and ecosystem changes in the eastern Baltic region

A growing body of evidence implies that the concept of 'treeless tundra' in eastern and northern Europe fails to explain the rapidity of Lateglacial and postglacial tree population dynamics of the region, yet the knowledge of the geographic locations and shifting of tree populations is fragmentary. Pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil stratigraphies from Lake Kurjanovas in the poorly studied eastern Baltic region provide improved knowledge of ranges of north‐eastern European trees during the Lateglacial and subsequent plant population responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. The results prove the Lateglacial presence of tree populations (Betula, Pinus and Picea) in the eastern Baltic region. Particularly relevant is the stomatal and plant macrofossil evidence showing the local presence of reproductive Picea populations during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12 900–11 700 cal. a BP, occurring along with Dryas octopetala and arctic herbs, indicating semi‐open vegetation. The spread of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 14 400 cal. a BP, the rise of Picea at ca. 12 800 cal. a BP and the re‐establishment of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 11 700 cal. a BP within a span of centuries further suggest strikingly rapid, climate‐driven ecosystem changes rather than gradual plant succession on a newly deglaciated land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Transfer factors of contamination between the German Bight and its tributary waters derived from measured tritium and Cs-137 activity concentrations

Summary Evaluation of the results of radioactivity monitoring in the southern North Sea between 1977 and 1987 has shown that in the water of the German Bight three areas stand out due to their different ratios between salinity and concentration of dissolved Cs-137 and tritium. While salinity steadily increases with greater distance from the coast, the Cs-137 concentration above 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) increases sharply and shows how far water from the western and central North Sea, contaminated by nuclear reprocessing in Sellafield (Irish Sea), reaches into the German Bight. In the 34 to 32.5 PSU range, the influence can be seen of water contaminated by tritium originating in the rivers Rhein, Maas and Schelde, precipitation and the nuclear reprocessing plant at La Hague (Channel). Below 32.5 PSU, the influence of the influx from the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems becomes apparent. These rivers are less contaminated with tritium.Assuming that Cs-137 and tritium, like the salinity of sea water, behave conservatively and that the decay-time of these two isotopes is long compared with the time-scale of water exchange in the southern North Sea, the concentration values measured are used to calculate the structure of the water masses in the three areas of the German Bight mentioned above using the mixing principle. Evaporation is taken into account. Results show that beyond 34 PSU, about half the sea water originates in the western central North Sea while the other half comes from the Channel. Below 34 PSU, the first mentioned share amounts only to a few per cent. Results also show that fresh water from the Rhein delta and precipitation, increasing with a decrease in salinity from 34 to 32.5 PSU, accounts for a maximum of 5% each. The fresh water influx into the German Bight via the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems amounts to app. 11% when the PSU value reaches 29. The calculated portions are the mean values for the observation period. The number of measurements available makes it impossible to distinguish more exactly between the temporal and spatial variability of the amounts of the individual components.The quantity of each calculated portion of sea water also represents the transfer factor of concentration between the nuclide concentration in the source (e. g. the Rhein) and the concentration in the German Bight. In addition, these factors are used to calculate the transfer factors of discharge using the annual drainage rates of the sources. Thus a radioactive discharge rate of 10¹⁵ Bq per year into the Rhein would produce a mean activity concentration of 0.34 Bq/l in the German Bight (at a salinity of 33.5 PSU). To verify the calculated transfer factors, tritium concentrations in the German Bight are derived from existing environmental tritium data and the results are compared with the values actually measured.

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Transferkaktoren zwischen der Deutschen Bucht und ihren Zuflüssen abgeleitet aus der Tritium- und Cs-137-Aktivitätskonzentration in den beteiligten Gewässern

Zusammenfassung Eine zusammenhängende Auswertung der Meßergebnisse der Radioaktivitätsüberwachung in der südlichen Nordsee über den Zeitraum 1977 bis 1987 hat gezeigt, daß im Wasser der Deutschen Bucht deutlich drei durch den Salzgehalt des Meerwassers und die Konzentration der gelösten Radionuklide charakterisierte Bereiche zu unterscheiden sind.Während der Salzgehalt mit wachsender Entfernung von der Küste stetig zunimmt, steigt die Cs-137-Konzentration oberhalb 34 PSU (Practical Salinity Unit) sprunghaft an und signalisiert die Grenze, bis zu der das durch die Kernbrennstoff-Wiederaufarbeitung in Sellafield (Irische See) kontaminierte Meerwasser der westlichen und mittleren Nordsee in die Deutsche Bucht vordringt. Im Bereich 34 bis 32,5 PSU ist das von Westen zugeführte, stärker Tritium-kontaminierte Wasser aus Rhein, Maas, Schelde und atmosphärischem Niederschlag zu erkennen, an das sich unterhalb 32,5 PSU der geringer mit Tritum kontaminierte Zufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems anschließt.Davon ausgehend, daß sich Cs-137 und Tritium wie der Salzgehalt im Meerwasser konservativ verhalten und daß weiterhin die Halbwertzeit des radioaktiven Zerfalls dieser beiden Nuklide lang ist gegenüber den Wasseraustauschzeiten im betrachteten Meeresgebiet, wurden die in der südlichen Nordsee gemessenen sowie aus der Literatur für den Süßwasserbereich entnommenen Konzentrationswerte dazu genutzt, um rechnerisch mit Hilfe des Mischungsgesetzes den Wassermassenaufbau in den drei genannten Salinitätsbereichen in der Deutschen Bucht quantitativ zu bestimmen. Es zeigte sich, daß oberhalb von 34 PSU das Meerwasser aus etwa gleichen Teilen aus der westlichen/mittleren Nordsee und dem Kanal stammt, während unterhalb dieser Salzgehaltsgrenze nur noch mit wenigen Prozentanteilen Wasser aus der mittleren Nordsee zu finden ist. Ferner ergab sich, daß das aus dem Rheinmündungsbiet bzw, aus dem atmosphärischen Niederschlag stammende Süßwasser — mit sinkendem Salzgehalt steigend — bei 32,5 PSU einen maximalen Anteil von jeweils 5% an Meerwasser hat. Der direkte Süßwasserzufluß aus Elbe, Weser und Ems beträgt in die Deutsche Bucht bei 29 PSU ca. 11%.Die berechneten Anteile sind Mittelwerte über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum; die Anzahl der Messungen läßt eine genauere Unterscheidung in zeitliche und räumliche Variabilität der Zusammensetzung nicht zu.Die Größe des jeweils bestimmten Anteils am Meerwasser stellt gleichzeitig den Transferfaktor der Konzentration zwischen der Nuklidkonzentration im Ursprungsgewässer (z. B. dem Rhein) und der sich daraus einstellenden Konzentration in der Deutschen Bucht dar. Ferner wurden die Transferfaktoren der Konzentration in Verbindung mit aus der Literatur entnommenen Größen der jährlichen Abflußmengen der Ursprungsgewässer genutzt, um auch die Transferfaktoren der jährlichen Einbringung zu ermitteln. So ergibt die jährliche Einbringung von 10¹⁵ Bq eines Nuklides z. B. in den Rhein bei 33,5 PSU in der Deutschen Bucht eine mittlere Konzentration von 0,34 Bq/l.Als Anwendungsbeispiel und zur Überprüfung der Richtigkeit der Transferfaktoren wird die Auswertung des Tritiumauslasses bei La Hague auf die Deutsche Bucht berechnet und mit den gemessenen Werten verglichen.

     

A note on the problem of choosing a model of the Universe,IV

The Friedmannian model of the Universe with ultra-relativistic equation of statep=–1/3 withk=0 is nondecelerative, i.e., it expands with the constant velocityv=c during the whole expanding phase of evolution of the Universe. The ultrastable nondecelerative model is the only model of the Universe which fulfills all conditions resulting from the quantum-mechanical and relativistic analysis of the Universe.