A possible factor which triggers shallow intra-plate earthquakes

Taking the focal mechanisms into consideration, strain perturbations caused by preceding earthquakes are computed at the foci of 24 shallow intra-plate earthquakes (M ? 6) which occurred in the Japan area in the last 30 years. Significant accumulation of differential strain (namely, shear strain on the fault plane or earthquake-generating stress) preceded the occurrence of these major shocks in many cases (16 out of 24). The duration of strain accumulation amounted to several or ten years. Quantitatively, these effects were about 10^?8-10^?6 in strain and 1–100 mbar in stress. It is questionable whether small disturbances of this magnitude always constitute a definitive trigger. In some critical cases, however, a fractional change in strain (and stress) will probably play an essential role in initiating the precursory process which results in the occurrence of earthquakes.     

Trial of earthquake prediction in Japan and a statistical test of time-shift

Earthquake prediction was practiced in Japan to examine the hypothesis that “a pair of earthquakes with similar magnitudes may be a signal of an impending larger earthquake”. In the present study, predictions were announced with expected probabilities of 20–30% (rank A) or 10–20% (rank B). In 2001–2002, excepting the Ogasawara region, 26 and 6 cases among 61 and 30 predictions of ranks A and B, respectively, were successful. Based on a statistical test of time-shift, i.e., one-year shift in this paper, and averaged activity in 1990–1999, the success rate of 43% for rank A was shown to be greater than that expected by chance with a confidence level more than 99%. The success rate of 20% for rank B gave a corresponding confidence level of only about 40%, suggesting that the predictions of rank B were not confident in this period. According to the results, a statistical test of time-shift was found to be useful to evaluate the significance of prediction methods of this type.     

Massive landslide triggered by 2008 Iwate�CMiyagi inland earthquake in the Aratozawa Dam area, Tohoku, Japan

On June 14 2008, an Iwate–Miyagi inland earthquake that had a magnitude of 7.2 hit the eastern foot of the Ohu Mountains in Tohoku district, Japan. The seismic peak ground acceleration was greater than 1,000 gal in the Aratozawa Dam area. The earthquake triggered a massive landslide at the upper reach of the dam. The landslide had the sediment volume of over 67 million cubic meters and is considered the largest catastrophic landslide in Japan during the last 100 years. This report presents a summary of our findings pertinent to the landslide’s activities based on our field investigations that started the day after the landslide. This report covers: (1) details of the land deformations caused by the landslide, (2) geological background pertinent to landslide development, and (3) estimation of the slip surface and the other physical properties of the landslide based on the analysis of the boring core specimens and landform features. The landslide is roughly divided into two sections, a lower and an upper half. The lower half moved almost simultaneously as one massive block of 700 m long, 800 m wide, and 70–80 m thick. The slip surface had developed on the very fine sand of the alternate layer of fine-grained sandstone and siltstone. The slickensided slip surface has a gradient of only 2°. This feature indicates that the type of the landslide movement is considered to be a block glide. The landslide body is nearly identical to the topography of the landslide area that was developed about 50,000 years ago. This shows the possibility that the landslide was reactivated. The upper half consists of two large ridges and the broad debris field and is 600 m long, 900 m wide, and 70–100 m thick. The maximum height of the main scarp is over 150 m.     

State of stress within a thin elastic wedge: a model of internal deformation of the continental plate at arc—arc junctions

Summary. Anomalous stress distributions near arc—arc junctions have been found in several parts of the world. As a simple two-dimensional model, a thin elastic wedge is introduced to model the continental side of the arc—arc junction, and the stress distribution within it is calculated to interpret those anomalies. Uniform normal and/or shear stress boundary conditions are given separately to each edge to approximate the effect of the two neighbouring converging plate boundaries; Stress components are obtained by numerical integration. Among the various results, the following features are predominant and seem to be actually taking place at arc—arc junctions.
(1) The anomaly in stress pattern within the wedge is basically due to the difference in stress conditions between the two boundaries.
(2) A large stress concentration takes place when symmetrical shear stresses are applied to the two edges.     

Induced earthquakes in the Izu peninsula by the Izu-Hanto-Oki earthquake of 1974, Japan

Recently small earthquakes in the Izu Peninsula, central Japan, occurred in a region where differential strain, or shear strain on the nodal planes, may have been enhanced by the Izu-Hanto-oki earthquake of 1974 (M = 6.9 after JMA). It is suggested that the seismic ctivity was induced by the redistribution of strain accompanying the Izu-Hanto-oki earthquake. The activity from August, 1975, may have also been affected by an abnormal uplift in the northeastern part of the peninsula. Based on plausible models, the uplift caused the accumulation of differential strain in the focal region of the subsequent earthquakes. Quantitatively, this change of crustal strain was of the order of 10⁻⁶; it is ten times as much as the average annual accumulation. Consequently, the sudden or rapid change of strain was likely to have played an essential role in the subsequent seismic activity. This effect could be one of the factors which trigger a shallow intra-plate earthquake.     

Ground temperature change observed at Unzen Volcano associated with the 1990–1995 eruption

Ground temperature associated with eruptive activity of Unzen Volcano, southwestern Japan, was observed in a cave about 680 m west of the central vent. Based on the data during 1991–1996, eliminating the effects of seasonal change, the temperature rose to the highest level probably around the first half of 1992. Hereafter the temperature decreased gradually year by year at least up to the autumn of 1996, beyond the level recovered at the beginning of the lava extrusion in May 1991. Although it is not necessarily conclusive, the present observation suggests a possible rise in ground temperature prior to the commencement of the first phreatic eruption in November 1990. If so, a careful observation may help to predict future eruptions by detecting a precursory rise of the ground temperature in this volcano.