Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model

Summary Knowledge of the variability in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and distribution is essential in determining the possible impact of natural or human-induced climate change. This variability can be investigated using the available TC data bases and by carrying out long-term climate model simulations for both past and future climates. A coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model (referred to here as the OU-CGCM) is described and applied with a higher resolution (50 km) nested domain in the southwest Pacific region. Six-member ensembles of simulations with the OU-CGCM have been run for 80 years, from 1970 to 2050. During the period 1970–2000, the OU-CGCM runs were compared with the observed TC data base. For the period 2000–2050, two ensembles of simulations were performed, one with constant greenhouse gas concentrations and the second with increasing greenhouse gases. The OU-CGCM simulated well the observed TC frequency and distribution in the southwest Pacific during the period 1970–2000. It also produced clear interannual and interdecadal TC variability in both the fixed and enhanced greenhouse gas simulations during the period 2000–2050. The variability in TC frequencies was associated with the typical atmospheric and SST anomaly patterns that occur in periods of quiet and active TC frequencies. The main findings from the enhanced greenhouse gas scenario for the period 2000–2050 are: no change in the mean decadal number of TCs relative to the control run, but a marked increase of about 15% in the mean decadal number of TCs in the most severe WMO categories 4 and 5; the likelihood of TCs during the next 50-year period that are more intense than ever previously experienced in the Australian region; a poleward extension of TC tracks; and a poleward shift of over 2 degrees of latitude in the TC genesis region.     

Preliminary Photometric Results for the 2003 Eclipse of Ee Cep

We report multicolour photometric observations of the 2003 eclipse of the long-period (5.6 yr) eclipsing binary EE Cep. Measurements were obtained with ten telescopes at eight observatories in four countries. In most cases, UBV(RI)_C broad band filters have been used. The light curve shape shows that the obscuring body is an almost dark disk around a low-luminosity central object. However, variations of the colour indices during the eclipse indicate that the obscuring body emits a considerable amount of radiation in the near infrared.     

The Shadow of Comet Hale–Bopp in Lyman-Alpha

For a few months around perihelion, thecentral part of the Hale–Bopp hydrogencloud has been optically thick to thesolar Lyα radiation, and hassignificantly reduced the solar flux availablefor the resonance glow of interstellarhydrogen beyond the comet. This shadowing effecton the interstellar gas is the first everobserved comet shadow. It is modeled andcompared with SWAN observations. Shadowmodelling will help to constrain the cometwater production and radiative transfer effectsin the interstellar ionisation cavity.     

On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction

This study presents the first multi-proxy reconstruction of rainfall variability from the mid-latitude region of south-eastern Australia (SEA). A skilful rainfall reconstruction for the 1783–1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from the Australasian region. An innovative Monte Carlo calibration and verification technique is introduced to provide the robust uncertainty estimates needed for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensemble median reconstruction captures 33% of inter-annual and 72% of decadal variations in instrumental SEA rainfall observations. We investigate the stability of regional SEA rainfall with large-scale circulation associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the past 206 years. We find evidence for a robust relationship with high SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IPO over the 1840–1988 period. These relationships break down in the late 18th–early 19th century, coinciding with a known period of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling during one of the most severe periods of the Little Ice Age. In comparison to a markedly wetter late 18th/early 19th century containing 75% of sustained wet years, 70% of all reconstructed sustained dry years in SEA occur during the 20th century. In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1% probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998–2008 ‘Big Dry’ is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.     

Analysis of energetic electron drop-outs in the upper atmosphere of Titan during flybys in the dayside magnetosphere of Saturn

We discuss the high energy electron absorption signatures at Titan during the Cassini dayside magnetospheric encounters. We use the electron measurements of the Low Energy Measurement System of the Magnetospheric Imaging Instrument. We also examine the mass loading boundary based on the ion data of the Ion Mass Spectrometer sensor of the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer. The dynamic motion of the Kronian magnetopause and the periodic charged particle flux and magnetic field variations – associated with the magnetodisk of Saturn – of the subcorotating magnetospheric plasma creates a unique and complex environment at Titan. Most of the analysed flybys (like T25–T33 and T35–T51) cluster at similar Saturn Local Time positions. However the instantaneous direction of the incoming magnetospheric particles may change significantly from flyby to flyby due to the very different magnetospheric field conditions which are found upstream of Titan within the sets of encounters.The energetic magnetospheric electrons gyrate along the magnetic field lines of Saturn, and at the same time bounce between the mirror points of the magnetosphere. This motion is combined with the drift of the magnetic field lines. When these flux tubes interact with the upper atmosphere of Titan, their content is depleted over approximately an electron bounce period. These depletion signatures are observed as sudden drop-outs of the electron fluxes. We examined the altitude distribution of these drop-outs and concluded that these mostly detected in the exo-ionosphere of Titan and sometimes within the ionosphere.However there is a relatively significant scatter in the orbit to orbit data, which can be attributed to the which can be attributed to the variability of the plasma environment and as a consequence, the induced magnetosphere of Titan. A weak trend between the incoming electron fluxes and the measured drop-out altitudes has also been observed.     

Gypsy Architecture: Houses of the Roma in Eastern Europe

Why is Ortley Beach, New Jersey, known as Superstorm Sandy's ground zero? This article employs qualitative vulnerability analysis to understand why vulnerability of second homes in Ortley Beach resulted in dune failure and slow rebuilding after Sandy. The second-home owners who largely make up the community in Ortley Beach are identified as the key vulnerable group. This group's lack of political representation and financial compensation after Sandy increased house damage and slowed rebuilding. Identifying the level of vulnerability of the majority group in a location is paramount to understanding how the community recovers from a disaster. Such identification can also aid in preparing communities, especially for types of disasters they have not yet encountered.