Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.     

Are open fractures necessarily aligned with maximum horizontal stress?

Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or S_Hmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that S_Hmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation.     

Using LM‐OSL of quartz to distinguish sediments derived from surface‐soil and channel erosion

This study describes the use of linearly modulated optically stimulated luminescence (LM‐OSL) to distinguish surface‐soil derived sediments from those derived from channel bank erosion. LM‐OSL signals from quartz extracted from 15 surface‐soil and five channel bank samples were analysed and compared to signals from samples collected from two downstream river sites. Discriminant analysis showed that the detrapping probabilities of fast, first slow and second slow components of the LM‐OSL signal can be used to differentiate between the samples collected from the channel bank and surface‐soil sources. We show that for each of these source end members these components are all normally distributed. These distributions are then used to estimate the relative contribution of surface‐soil derived and channel bank derived sediment to the river bed sediments. The results indicate that channel bank derived sediments dominate the sediment sources at both sites, with 90.1 ± 3% and 91.9 ± 1.9% contributions. These results are in agreement with a previous study which used measurements of ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex fallout radionuclides to estimate the relative contribution from these two sources. This result shows that LM‐OSL may be a useful method, at least in the studied catchment, to estimate the relative contribution of surface soil and channel erosion to river sediments. However, further research in different settings is required to test the difference of OSL signals in distinguishing these sediment sources. And if generally acceptable, this technique may provide an alternative to the use of fallout radionuclides for source tracing. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shoreline variability via empirical orthogonal function analysis: Part I temporal and spatial characteristics

Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) or principal components were used to extract the significant modes of shoreline variability from several data sets collected at three very different locations. Although EOFs have proven to be a valuable tool in the analysis of nearshore data, most applications have focused on the ability of the technique to describe cross-shore or profile variability. Here however, EOFs were used to help identify the dominant modes of longshore shoreline variability at Duck, North Carolina, the Gold Coast, Australia, and at several locations within the Columbia River Littoral Cell in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. In part one of this analysis, characteristic patterns of shoreline variability identified by the EOF analysis are described in detail. At each site, the dominant modes consisting of the first four eigenfunctions were found to describe nearly 95% of the total shoreline variability. At both Duck and the Gold Coast, several interesting longshore periodic features suggestive of sand waves were identified, while boundary effects related to natural headlands and navigational structures/entrances dominated the Pacific Northwest data sets.     

The last erosional stage of the Molasse Basin and the Alps

We present a synoptic overview of the Miocene-present development of the northern Alpine foreland basin (Molasse Basin), with special attention to the pattern of surface erosion and sediment discharge in the Alps. Erosion of the Molasse Basin started at the same time that the rivers originating in the Central Alps were deflected toward the Bresse Graben, which formed part of the European Cenozoic rift system. This change in the drainage direction decreased the distance to the marine base level by approximately 1,000 km, which in turn decreased the average topographic elevation in the Molasse Basin by at least 200 m. Isostatic adjustment to erosional unloading required ca. 1,000 m of erosion to account for this inferred topographic lowering. A further inference is that the resulting increase in the sediment discharge at the Miocene–Pliocene boundary reflects the recycling of Molasse units. We consider that erosion of the Molasse Basin occurred in response to a shift in the drainage direction rather than because of a change in paleoclimate. Climate left an imprint on the Alpine landscape, but presumably not before the beginning of glaciation at the Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary. Similar to the northern Alpine foreland, we do not see a strong climatic fingerprint on the pattern or rates of exhumation of the External Massifs. In particular, the initiation and acceleration of imbrication and antiformal stacking of the foreland crust can be considered solely as a response to the convergence of Adria and Europe, irrespective of erosion rates. However, the recycling of the Molasse deposits since 5 Ma and the associated reduction of the loads in the foreland could have activated basement thrusts beneath the Molasse Basin in order to restore a critical wedge. In conclusion, we see the need for a more careful consideration of both tectonic and climatic forcing on the development of the Alps and the adjacent Molasse Basin.     

The effects of climate and landscape position on chemical denudation and mineral transformation in the Santa Catalina mountain critical zone observatory

Understanding the interactions of climate, physical erosion, chemical weathering and pedogenic processes is essential when considering the evolution of critical zone systems. Interactions among these components are particularly important to predicting how semiarid landscapes will respond to forecasted changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate change. The primary goal of this study was to understand how climate and landscape structure interact to control chemical denudation and mineral transformation across a range of semiarid ecosystems in southern Arizona. The research was conducted along the steep environmental gradient encompassed by the Santa Catalina Mountains Critical Zone Observatory (SCM-CZO). The gradient is dominated by granitic parent materials and spans significant range in both mean annual temperature (>10 °C) and precipitation (>50 cm a^?1), with concomitant shift in vegetation communities from desert scrub to mixed conifer forest. Regolith profiles were sampled from divergent and convergent landscape positions in five different ecosystems to quantify how climate-landscape position interactions control regolith development. Regolith development was quantified as depth to paralithic contact and degree of chemical weathering and mineral transformation using a combination of quantitative and semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of bulk soils and specific particle size classes. Depth to paralithic contact was found to increase systematically with elevation for divergent positions at approximately 28 cm per 1000 m elevation, but varied inconsistently for convergent positions. The relative differences in depth between convergent and divergent landscape positions was greatest at the low and high elevation sites and is hypothesized to be a product of changes in physical erosion rates across the gradient. Quartz/Plagioclase (Q/P) ratios were used as a general proxy for bulk regolith chemical denudation. Q/P was generally higher in divergent landscape positions compared to the adjacent convergent hollows. Convergent landscape positions appear to be collecting solute-rich soil–waters from divergent positions thereby inhibiting chemical denudation. Clay mineral assemblage of the low elevation sites was dominated by smectite and partially dehydrated halloysite whereas vermiculite and kaolinite were predominant in the high elevation sites. The increased depth to paralithic contact, chemical denudation and mineral transformation are likely functions of greater water availability and increased primary productivity. Landscape position within a given ecosystem exerts strong control on chemical denudation as a result of the redistribution of water and solutes across the landscape surface. The combined data from this research demonstrates a strong interactive control of climate, landscape position and erosion on the development of soil and regolith.