Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.     

Are open fractures necessarily aligned with maximum horizontal stress?

Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or S_Hmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that S_Hmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation.     

Fire and vegetation shifts in the Americas at the vanguard of Paleoindian migration

Across North and South America, the final millennia of the Pleistocene saw dramatic changes in climate, vegetation, fauna, fire regime, and other local and regional paleo-environmental characteristics. Rapid climate shifts following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a first-order influence, but abrupt post-glacial shifts in vegetation composition, vegetation structure, and fire regime also coincided with human arrival and transformative faunal extinctions in the Americas. We propose a model of post-glacial vegetation change in response to climatic drivers, punctuated by local fire regime shifts in response to megaherbivore-driven fuel changes and anthropogenic ignitions. The abrupt appearance of humans, disappearance of megaherbivores, and resulting changes in New World fire systems were transformative events that should not be dismissed in favor of climate-only interpretations of post-glacial paleo-environmental shifts in the Americas. Fire is a mechanism by which small human populations can have broad impacts, and growing evidence suggests that early anthropogenic influences on regional, even global, paleo-environments should be tested alongside other potential causal mechanisms.     

Geoarchaeological Investigations in Mesoamerica Move into the 21st Century: A Review

Over the past thirty years, geoarchaeology has moved from the fringe to mainstream status within Mesoamerican archaeological investigations. This review focuses on works published since the year 2000. Five themes are identified as central to recent studies: (1) the correlation of environmental change and cultural history; (2) anthropogenic environmental impacts; (3) ancient land cover, land use, and diet; (4) archaeological prospection; and (5) provenance studies. These themes are often interwoven in the application of complex systems approaches that allow scientists to more accurately model the intricacies of ancient human–environment interactions.     

Changes in timber haul emissions in the context of shifting forest management and infrastructure

Background  

Although significant amounts of carbon may be stored in harvested wood products, the extraction of that carbon from the forest generally entails combustion of fossil fuels. The transport of timber from the forest to primary milling facilities may in particular create emissions that reduce the net sequestration value of product carbon storage. However, attempts to quantify the effects of transport on the net effects of forest management typically use relatively sparse survey data to determine transportation emission factors. We developed an approach for systematically determining transport emissions using: 1) -remotely sensed maps to estimate the spatial distribution of harvests, and 2) - industry data to determine landscape-level harvest volumes as well as the location and processing totals of individual mills. These data support spatial network analysis that can produce estimates of fossil carbon released in timber transport.     

Faecal indicator bacteria in New Zealand freshwater fish: a pilot study

Recent studies have suggested that poikilothermic animals, such as fish, may represent a previously overlooked source of the faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) used for the assessment of water quality. However, quantitative studies of FIB in poikilotherms are scarce. We investigated the presence of FIB in the faeces of five freshwater fish species. E. coli and enterococci were detected in 71 and 76% of faecal samples, respectively. Concentrations were highly variable, with maximum concentrations (2.1?×?10⁴ E. coli and 1.3?×?10⁶ enterococci per gram of faecal material) up to four orders of magnitude higher than present in the water column. FIB were not detected in faecal samples from marine fish. Our findings suggest that FIB ingested from the environment may be capable of replication within the fish gut, making fish a potential source and transport mechanism for FIB in New Zealand freshwaters. This may have implications for water quality monitoring.     

Effect of polychromatic X‐ray microtomography imaging on the amino acid content of the Murchison CM chondrite

X‐ray microcomputed tomography (μCT) is a useful means of characterizing cosmochemical samples such as meteorites or robotically returned samples. However, there are occasional concerns that the use of μCT may be detrimental to the organic components of a chondrite. Small organic compounds such as amino acids comprise up to ~10% of the total solvent extractable carbon in CM carbonaceous chondrites. We irradiated three samples of the Murchison CM carbonaceous chondrite under conditions akin to and harsher than those typically used during typical benchtop X‐ray μCT imaging experiments to determine if detectable changes in the amino acid abundance and distribution relative to a nonexposed Murchison control sample occurred. After subjecting three meteorite samples to ionizing radiation dosages between ~300 Gray (Gy) and 3 kGy with bremstrahlung X‐rays, we analyzed the amino acid content of each sample. Within sampling and analytical errors, we cannot discern differences in the amino acid abundances and amino acid enantiomeric ratios when comparing the control samples (nonexposed Murchison) and the irradiated samples. We conclude that a polychromatic X‐ray μCT experiment does not alter the abundances of amino acids to a degree greater than how well those abundances are measured with our techniques and therefore any damage to amino acids is minimal.     

A sea-level test for inertial interchange true polar wander events

The possibility of inertial interchange true polar wander (IITPW) events, in which the rotation pole moves 90° with respect to the solid Earth in a matter of ∼10  Myr, has been discussed in the geophysical literature for more than three decades. Recent evidence for an IITPW event in Early Cambrian time has renewed interest in the issue; however, the veracity of supporting palaeomagnetic evidence remains a matter of significant debate. We propose that sea-level variations driven by polar wander provide an important independent test for the occurrence of IITPW events. Our numerical simulations of the response of a viscoelastic planet to an IITPW-induced forcing predict sea-level changes of up to 200  m, depending on the details of the earth model, the location of the site relative to the rotation path and the elapsed time for the reorientation of the pole. A preliminary comparison of our predictions to Early–Middle Cambrian sea-level records for Australia, Laurentia and Baltica shows qualitative agreement. This comparison suggests that a definitive test for the Cambrian IITPW hypothesis is possible given a sufficiently accurate, and globally distributed, database of sea-level histories.