Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Oxygen‐18 dynamics in precipitation and streamflow in a semi‐arid agricultural watershed,Eastern Washington,USA

Understanding flow pathways and mechanisms that generate streamflow is important to understanding agrochemical contamination in surface waters in agricultural watersheds. Two environmental tracers, δ¹⁸O and electrical conductivity (EC), were monitored in tile drainage (draining 12 ha) and stream water (draining nested catchments of 6‐5700 ha) from 2000 to 2008 in the semi‐arid agricultural Missouri Flat Creek (MFC) watershed, near Pullman Washington, USA. Tile drainage and streamflow generated in the watershed were found to have baseline δ¹⁸O value of ?14·7‰ (VSMOW) year round. Winter precipitation accounted for 67% of total annual precipitation and was found to dominate streamflow, tile drainage, and groundwater recharge. ‘Old’ and ‘new’ water partitioning in streamflow were not identifiable using δ¹⁸O, but seasonal shifts of nitrate‐corrected EC suggest that deep soil pathways primarily generated summer streamflow (mean EC 250 µS/cm) while shallow soil pathways dominated streamflow generation during winter (EC declining as low as 100 µS/cm). Using summer isotopic and EC excursions from tile drainage in larger catchment (4700‐5700 ha) stream waters, summer in‐stream evaporation fractions were estimated to be from 20% to 40%, with the greatest evaporation occurring from August to October. Seasonal watershed and environmental tracer dynamics in the MFC watershed appeared to be similar to those at larger watershed scales in the Palouse River basin. A 0·9‰ enrichment, in shallow groundwater drained to streams (tile drainage and soil seepage), of δ¹⁸O values from 2000 to 2008 may be evidence of altered precipitation conditions due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the Inland Northwest. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GIS professional development for teachers: lessons learned from high-needs schools

University faculty partners from the Departments of Geography and Instruction and Teacher Education at a large, public university collaborated with K-12 teachers and the leadership of a rural school district in order to investigate the crosscutting content of science, mathematics, and geography through the integration of web-based GIS technologies. The project explored the critical connections among technology, pedagogy, and content with a particular emphasis on developing technology-enhanced, inquiry-based lessons in which the teachers and their students used GIS technologies to analyze, visualize, and present data in real-world contexts. The findings highlight the importance of well-structured professional development that builds community, integrates diverse content and pedagogical expertise, provides feedback and coaching, and is of sufficient duration to effect change.     

Relative stress variations as determined by b-values from earthquakes in circum-pacific subduction zones

Assuming a relation of “b” to stress state, the possibility of globe-wide stress variation and transmission was investigated. The NOAA earthquake data file served to determine the temporal change in “b” of log N = a − bM from 1963 to 1975.Periods of six to eight years are observed in the b-values (stress pattern) for most circum-Pacific areas (South America, Tonga, Kermadec, New Hebrides, Kamchatka and Eastern Aleutians).In the Kurils, fore- and aftershock sequences of large earthquakes seem to mask any characteristic global pattern that might exist. These sequences exhibit low b-values (high stress) through the time of foreshocks and early stages of aftershocks, followed by rapid increase in b-values (decrease in stress).Use of a worldwide earthquake data file clearly yields less resolution of the temporal “b” variation than the use of local network studies published by other authors.Incidental to the study, 1124 earthquakes of the NOAA data file yield the M_s − m_b relations: M_s = 1.16m_b − 0.835 for 4.5 m_b 6 and: log₁₀M_s = 0.1432m_b − 0.0629 form_b > 6 with correlative coefficients of 0.994 and 0.992 respectively.     

Mussels document loss of bioavailable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and the return to baseline conditions for oiled shorelines in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were measured in mussels (Mytilus trossulus) collected between 1990 and 2002 from 11 sites on the shores of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, that were heavily oiled by the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS). This study, utilizing the methods of the NOAA Status and Trends Mussel Watch Program, found that concentrations of PAH released from spill remnants have decreased dramatically with time and by 2002 were at or near the range of total PAH (TPAH) of 3-355 ng/g dry weight obtained for mussels from unoiled reference sites in PWS. Time-series TPAH data indicate a mean TPAH half-life in mussel tissues of 2.4 years with a range from 1.4 to 5.3, yielding an annual mean loss of bioaccumulated TPAH of 25%. The petroleum-derived TPAH fraction in mussel tissues has decreased with time, reflecting the decreasing release of EVOS residues in shoreline sediments. These results show that PAH from EVOS residues that remain buried in shoreline sediments after the early 1990s are in a form and at locations that have a low accessibility to mussels living in the intertidal zone.     

Mixed-function oxygenases as biological monitors around petroleum hydrocarbon development sites: Potential for induction by diesel and other drilling mud base oils containing reduced levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

The use of oil-based drilling muds has been discouraged in hydrocarbon exploration and production in the marine environment but these muds are presently being used to a considerable degree in the United Kingdom and Norwegian sectors of the North Sea. Field studies in the North Sea have demonstrated only localized impacts around individual drilling sites,^1,2 even including those sites where ‘toxic’ diesel oils were employed as base fluids in drilling muds. Yet the question of disposal of cuttings contaminated with oil from drilling muds remains somewhat controversial. The induction of mixed-function oxygenases (MFO) has been validated on a number of occasions in the field as a sensitive index of low level hydrocarbon exposure (reviewed by Payne),³ including sites in the North Sea where diesel-based muds were used.⁴ The present study demonstrates that any potential for induction by hydrocarbon contaminated cuttings will probably be reduced by substitution of low-aromatic base oils for diesel in drilling mud formulations.     

Approximating constant‐Q seismic propagation in the time domain

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of approximating constant‐Q wave propagation by series of Zener or standard linear solid (SLS) mechanisms. Modelling in viscoacoustic and viscoelastic media is implemented in the time domain using the finite‐difference (FD) method. The accuracy of numerical solutions is evaluated by comparison with the analytical solution in homogeneous media. We found that the FD solutions using three SLS relaxation mechanisms as well as a single SLS mechanism, with properly chosen relaxation times, are quite accurate for both weak and strong attenuation. Although the RMS errors of FD simulations using a single relaxation mechanism increase with increasing offset, especially for strong attenuation (Q = 20), the results are still acceptable for practical applications. The synthetic data of the Marmousi‐II model further illustrate that the single SLS mechanism, to model constant Q, is efficient and sufficiently accurate. Moreover, it benefits from less computational costs in computer time and memory.     

The abundances of ammonia in the atmospheres of Jupiter,Saturn, and Titan

An investigation of low-resolution ratio spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan in the region 5400–6500 Å has permitted new evaluations of ammonia absorption bands. The distribution of ammonia over the disk of Jupiter is very inhomogeneous. The carbon-to-nitrogen ratio is distinctly different from the solar value, but this is probably a result of uneven mixing of methane and ammonia, as suggested previously by Kuiper, rather than a compositional anomaly. The abundance of ammonia on Saturn also shows spatial variations, but appears constant in time over a 3-yr period. Two weak, unidentified absorptions were discovered in the red region of Titan's spectrum, in the absence of any detectable ammonia. The new upper limit is ηN < 120 cm-am.