Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex,central coastal British Columbia,Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake

A pollen‐based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740 ± 70 ¹⁴C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860 ± 50 ¹⁴C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso‐ to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi‐permanent air mass. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.     

Inter-annual variability in larval supply to populations of three invertebrate taxa in the northern California Current

We investigated sources of inter-annual variability in larval supply to crab and sea urchin populations at Bodega Head and Point Reyes in northern California. During the spring and summer upwelling seasons of the years 1992 through 1997 we monitored the weekly settlement rates of nine species of crabs and two species of sea urchins. As observed in previous studies, daily values of alongshore windstress, temperature and salinity provided evidence for the poleward flow of relatively warm, low salinity water from south of Point Reyes, an apparent retention zone, during upwelling relaxation events. In years dominated by these events (1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996) we observed that alongshore windstress, temperature and salinity were coherent and temperature was significantly correlated with cancrid crab settlement. During these years the magnitude of cancrid crab settlement and the fraction of cancrid crabs relative to other crab species settling were high. Over four years of concurrent sampling there was consistently greater cancrid crab settlement at the Point Reyes site, within the retention zone, than at Bodega Head. Settlement of non-cancrid crabs (porcellanids, grapsids, pagurids and majids) was not as closely linked to intra-annual patterns of upwelling and relaxation, possibly due to the shorter seasonal availability of larvae allowing for the influence of fewer relaxation events. Settlement of this group among years was positively correlated with environmental indicators of strong seasonal upwelling; high salinity, Bakun upwelling index and low temperature. Sea urchin settlement events were observed in June and July of 1992, 1994 and 1997 during warming periods when salinity and temperature were increasing and alongshore windstress was low. Across the six years of the study, we found that cancrid crab larvae had a more even seasonal availability than larvae of non-cancrid species, which settled in greatest numbers during the early portion of the upwelling season. Sea urchins settled in greatest numbers during the later part of the upwelling season. Together these patterns demonstrate the taxon-specific way that inter-annual variability in larval supply is forced by the coincidence of larval availability with favorable physical transport mechanisms.     

Selection and quality assessment of Landsat data for the North American forest dynamics forest history maps of the US

Using the NASA Earth Exchange platform, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project mapped forest history wall-to-wall, annually for the contiguous US (1986–2010) using the Vegetation Change Tracker algorithm. As with any effort to identify real changes in remotely sensed time-series, data gaps, shifts in seasonality, misregistration, inconsistent radiometry and cloud contamination can be sources of error. We discuss the NAFD image selection and processing stream (NISPS) that was designed to minimize these sources of error. The NISPS image quality assessments highlighted issues with the Landsat archive and metadata including inadequate georegistration, unreliability of the pre-2009 L5 cloud cover assessments algorithm, missing growing-season imagery and paucity of clear views. Assessment maps of Landsat 5–7 image quantities and qualities are presented that offer novel perspectives on the growing-season archive considered for this study. Over 150,000+ Landsat images were considered for the NAFD project. Optimally, one high quality cloud-free image in each year or a total of 12,152 images would be used. However, to accommodate data gaps and cloud/shadow contamination 23,338 images were needed. In 220 specific path-row image years no acceptable images were found resulting in data gaps in the annual national map products.     

Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.     

Adaptation and poverty reduction in Mozambique: an opportunity for developing countries to lead§

Climate change disproportionately impacts the world’s poorest countries. A recent World Bank report highlighted that over 100 million people are at risk of falling into extreme poverty as a result of climate change. There is currently a lack of information about how to simultaneously address climate change and poverty. Climate change challenges provide an opportunity for those impacted most to come up with new and innovative technologies and solutions. This article uses an example from Mozambique where local and international partners are working side-by-side, to show how developing countries can simultaneously address climate change and poverty reduction using an ecosystem-based adaptation approach. Using ecosystem-based adaptation, a technique that uses the natural environment to help societies adapt to climate change, developing countries can lead the way to improve climate adaptation globally. This paradigm shift would help developing countries become leaders in ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure techniques and has implications for climate policy worldwide.

POLICY RELEVANCE

The Paris Agreement resulting from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 was rightly lauded for its global commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, COP 21 was also historic because of its call for non-party stakeholders to address climate change, inclusion of a global goal of ‘enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability’, and the United States’ commitment of $800 million to adaptation funding. The combination of recognizing the need for new stakeholders to commit to climate change adaptation, the large impact climate change will have on the developing world, and providing access to funds for climate change adaptation creates a unique opportunity for developing countries to pave the way in adaptation policies in practices. Currently, developing countries are creating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) for the UNFCCC. Through including a strong component of ecosystem-based adaptation in NAPs, developing countries can shape their countries’ policies, improve local institutions and governments, and facilitate a new generation of innovative leaders. Lessons learned in places like Mozambique can help lead the way in other regions facing similar climatic risks.     

Examining the effects of climate change, acidic deposition, and copper sulphate poisoning on long-term changes in cladoceran assemblages

We analyzed cladoceran remains in dated sediment cores from four lakes in Nova Scotia, Canada, to assess the potential effects of climate warming, acidic deposition, and a major fish kill caused by copper sulphate poisoning on assemblage composition and Bosmina size structure. In three of the four lakes, we observed a decline in Daphnia in the early 20th century that might be indicative of limnological changes in response to acidic deposition or increased fish predation. The appearance of the softwater zooplankter Holopedium glacialis in Hirtle Lake ~1995 might be linked to declining aqueous [Ca], a consequence of acidic deposition. No shifts in subfossil Cladocera were identified in this study that could be linked to climate warming. The application of copper sulphate as a fish poison to Trefry Lake (the lake was later re-stocked with trout fry) in 1938 resulted in dramatic and persistent changes in the cladoceran assemblage, where littoral Cladocera declined in relative abundance and small, pelagic Bosmina increased. In addition, we observed a reduction in the mean body size of Bosmina in post-1938 sediments, suggesting that planktivorous fish abundance increased and/or predatory copepods and other invertebrate predators decreased. No recovery of Cladocera to pre-disturbance conditions was observed. Overall, our data suggest that acidic deposition and calcium decline may have had a modest impact on the cladoceran communities in these lakes, but the effects of copper sulphate poisoning on the food web in Trefry Lake were widespread, and still persist over 70?years following this intervention.