Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models

Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.

     

Optical properties of long-range transported volcanic ash over Romania and Poland during Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010

After Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption on 14 April 2010, due to a complex air mass circulation, Romania was exposed to volcanic ash and its mixture with continental aerosols. Ash particles with an average Ångström (UV-VIS) exponent of 1.4 ± 0.2 and (VIS-IR) of 1.2 ± 0.3, a color ratio (VIS-UV) of 0.54 and (IR-VIS) of 0.49, an average particle depolarization value ～9.4%, and a lidar ratio of 50 sr were retrieved on 18 April from multiwavelength Raman lidar measurements in Bucharest. Mixed volcanic ash with mineral dust particles advected from Sahara, depolarization ～12%, Ångström (UV-VIS) exponent of 1.25 ± 0.25 and (VIS-IR) of 1.45 ± 0.25, an increased color ratio (VIS-UV) of 0.61, (IRVIS) of 0.39 and lidar ratio of 53 sr were identified on 28 April. From observations in Poland conducted by an elastic lidar at 532 nm and a ceilometer at 1064 nm we retrieved an average backscatter related Ångström (VIS-IR) exponent of 1.25 ± 0.35, and a color ratio (IR-VIS) of 0.53 in the layer at about 5.5 km during the night of 16/17 April, indicating fresh ash over Warsaw.