Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rhinocerotid tooth enamel 18O/16O variability between 23 and 12 Ma in southwestern France

The relationship between the oxygen isotope ratio of mammal tooth enamel and that of drinking water was used to reconstruct changes in the Miocene oxygen isotope ratio of rainfall (meteoric water ${\delta }^{18}$O_MW). These, in turn, are related to climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation rate). ${\delta }^{18}$O values of rhinocerotid teeth from the Aquitaine Basin (southwestern France) suggest a significant climatic change between 17 and 12 Ma, characterized by cooling together with precipitation increase, in agreement with other terrestrial and oceanic records. To cite this article: I. Bentaleb et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Duration Magnitude Scale and Site Residuals for Northern Morocco

— The first empirical duration magnitude (M_D) formula is developed and tested for the Northern Morocco Seismic Network (NMSNET). This relationship is obtained by relating the IGN (Instituto Geografico National, Madrid) body-waves mbLg^IGN to the duration (), and the epicentral distance (), at 25 analogue stations of the NMSNET for 479 earthquakes with 2.5 mb 5.4, from March 1992 to February 2001. M_D estimates are significantly more precise while introducing a correction term for each of these stations, cSta_j. The magnitude for the i^th event (M_D)_i is the mean value of individual M_Dij=–0.14+1.63log₁₀(_ij)+0.031(_ij)+cSta_j. The cSta_j corrections reduce considerably the local site effects which influence the recorded durations and cause stations to either overestimate, or underestimate M_D up to 0.5 magnitude units. Average station M_D residuals (–cSta_j) are found to be independent of the distance from the epicenter to at least 10 degrees. It seems evident that regional geological features in the immediate behavior of stations have a systematic effect on the corresponding obtained residuals: older well-consolidated Precambrian crystalline rocks produce high negative residuals (shorter durations), younger unconsolidated sediments produce high positive residuals (longer durations), whereas, intermediate M_D site residuals appear to be the result of the effect of various factors, principally age and state of consolidation of the bedrock, combined with the local tectonic.     

Using Active Faults and Seismicity for the Strong Motion Modeling in the Eastern Rif (Northern Morocco)

— The aim of this study is to conduct a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the eastern Rif area in northern Morocco. The source zones were established on the basis of the seismicity database, the fracturing analysis deduced from Landsat7 ETM digital enhancement and marine seismic reflection profiles. By the use of this information together with the selected attenuation relationship, the peak ground acceleration contour maps are produced for specific return periods. The map has been divided into intervals of 0.1 degrees in both latitude and longitude to calculate the values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results of seismic hazard assessment are displayed as iso-acceleration contours expected to be exceeded during typical economic life times of structures.     

The M<Subscript>D</Subscript> Scale in Northern Morocco: A Comparative Study of Two Empirical Approaches

We have derived, evaluated, and compared two empirical methods for computing duration magnitude M _D from 25 short-period vertical component stations of the Northern Morocco Seismic Network (NMSN). M _D has been scaled to IGN (Insituto Geograpfico National, Spain) body-wave magnitude (mb ^IGN ), using a set of 479 shallow (less than 30 km) earthquakes recorded from March 1992 to February 2001, with 2.5 ≤ mb ^IGN ≤ 5.4. In the first approach: Individual Network Calibration, we determined an individual M _D formula for each station. In the second approach: Global Network Calibration, we used a single relationship to compute M _Dij (from the jth observation for the i-th earthquake) magnitudes at 25 selected stations as: M _Dij = − 0.14 +1.63 log₁₀ (τ _ij )+0.031(Δij)+cSta _j . Residuals (M _Dij − mb ^IGN ) for both techniques were thereafter deduced. Comparison between the two approaches provided the principal results: (1) The mean correlation between estimated magnitude; M _Dij and reference magnitude; mb ^IGN is about 89.9% for the individual calibration method, and near 95% for global calibration method in which station corrections cSta _j were introduced, (2) Residuals (M _Dij − mb ^IGN ) are relatively large, and are ranging between − 0.60 and 0.60 magnitude units, for the individual calibration method, whereas they vary in the range − 0.38 to 0.40, for the global calibration method with corrections; cSta _j . (3) A random distribution of residuals (M _Dij − mb ^IGN ) is observed for each station in the case of the individual approach. Thus, the resulting average of these residuals is almost equal to zero. Using a global calibration without corrections results in negative residuals for a group stations and positive residuals for another an group indicating respectively that sites corresponding to these groups have a tendency to underestimate, or overestimate observed magnitude values.     

Seismicity of Morocco for the Period 1987–1994

— A seismic data file of 3,740 earthquakes from January 1987 to December 1994 has been elaborated for Morocco and the border regions, with 10 main events registering magnitudes from 5 to 5.6. Such seismicity is particularly important for Morocco as the released seismic energy constitutes a considerable part of the total energy radiated during the 20th century. Relative seismicity maps confirm the persistence of the major features of the seismicity of Morocco. An important seismic activity is observed in the Alboran region continental crust, which absorbs the maximum deformation resulting from the convergence of the African and Iberian plates. However, in the longitude window 3.5°– 6° W at depths of 25 to 50 km, a seismic gap zone seems to take place. An explanation of this phenomenon may be provided by the slab breakoff model. Even if the seismicity of Morocco remains moderate, heavy damage is observed when the magnitude of earthquakes exceeds 4.5, especially in the case of traditional buildings.     

Two‐phase dynamic analysis by material point method

This paper extends the material point method to analyze coupled dynamic, two‐phase boundary‐valued problems via a velocity formulation, in which solid and fluid phase velocities are the variables. Key components of the proposed approach are the adoption of Verruijt's sequence of update steps when integrating over time and the enhancement of volumetric strains. The connection between fractional step method and the time‐stepping algorithm presented in this paper is addressed. Enhancement of volumetric strains allows lower order variations in pressure and mitigates spurious pressure fields and locking that plague low‐order finite‐element implementations. A stress averaging technique to smoothen stress variations is proposed, and the local damping procedure adopted by FLAC is extended to handle two‐phase problems. Special Kelvin‐Voigt boundaries are developed to suppress reflections at artificial boundaries. Idealized examples are presented to demonstrate the capability of the proposed framework to accurately capture the physics of wave propagation, consolidation and wave attack on a sea dike. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contribution of Landsat 8 data for the estimation of land surface temperature in Batna city,Eastern Algeria

In this study, we presented a mono-window (MW) algorithm for land surface temperature retrieval from Landsat 8 TIRS. MW needs spectral radiance and emissivity of thermal infrared bands as input for deriving LST. The spectral radiance was estimated using band 10, and the surface emissivity value was derived with the help of NDVI and vegetation proportion parameters for which OLI bands 5 and 4 were used. The results in comparison with MODIS (MOD11A1) products indicated that the proposed algorithm is capable of retrieving accurate LST values, with a correlation coefficient of 0.850. The industrial area, public facilities and military area show higher surface temperature (more than 37 °C) in comparison with adjoining areas, while the green spaces in urban areas (34 °C) and forests (29 °C) were the cooler part of the city. These successful results obtained in the study could be used as an efficient method for the environmental impact assessment.