Sustainable shellfish aquaculture in Saldanha Bay,South Africa

The carrying capacity for bivalve shellfish culture in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, was analysed through the application of the well-tested EcoWin ecological model, in order to simulate key ecosystem variables. The model was set up using: (i) oceanographic and water-quality data collected from Saldanha Bay, and (ii) culture-practice information provided by local shellfish farmers. EcoWin successfully reproduced key ecological processes, simulating an annual mean phytoplankton biomass of 7.5 µg Chl a l^–1 and an annual harvested shellfish biomass of about 3 000 tonnes (t) y^–1, in good agreement with reported yield. The maximum annual carrying capacity of Small Bay was estimated as 20 000 t live weight (LW) of oysters Crassostrea gigas, or alternatively 5 100 t LW of mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis, and for Big Bay as 100 000 t LW of oysters. Two production scenarios were investigated for Small Bay: a production of 4 000 t LW y^–1 of mussels, and the most profitable scenario for oysters of 19 700 t LW y^–1. The main conclusions of this work are: (i) in 2015–2016, both Small Bay and Big Bay were below their maximum production capacity; (ii) the current production of shellfish potentially removes 85% of the human nitrogen inputs; (iii) a maximum-production scenario in both Big Bay and Small Bay would result in phytoplankton depletion in the farmed area; (iv) increasing the production intensity in Big Bay would probably impact the existing cultures in Small Bay; and (v) the production in Small Bay could be increased, resulting in higher income for farmers.     

Infrared extinction of heavy ion irradiated and amorphous olivine,with applications to interstellar dust

A smooth surface layer of highly disordered olivine, (Mg, Fe)₂SiO₄, has been produced by exposure of polished, natural olivine to a dose of 5×10¹⁶ cm^–2 of 1.5 MeV neon ions from a Van de Graaff accelerator. The dielectric functions of the disordered silicate in the wavelength range from 8 to 30 m have been determined from analysis of specular reflectance data, and extinction for Rayleigh particles of such disordered olivine has been calculated. Extinction measurements for amorphous olivine smoke collected on a substrate are also presented. The small particle extinctions of both kinds of structurally disordered olivine are shown to agree well with the main features of the absorption and emission spectra from interstellar grains in the 10 and 20 m region.     

Response of the uppermost mantle to Indo-Eurasian collisional tectonics

The rheological law for the power law creep field of peridotite suggested by Chopra and Paterson (1981, 1984) is combined with theoretically modelled thermal and stress perturbations for continent-continent collisions (Bird et al., 1975; Bird, 1978a) to determine the effect of such collisions on the uppermost mantle below the zone of convergence. The model predicts a change from continental to oceanic geotherms during the oceanic subduction phase, followed by a rapid rise in differential stress during the collisional phase.These perturbations, when combined, cause a cyclical change in the steady state flow of the uppermost mantle ending with a re-equilibration of thermal and stress regimes. The thermal re-equilibration proceeds at a much slower rate, with a suggested total re-equilibration period of about 100 m.y. after collision has ceased. The combination of the flow law with the model predicts that the perturbations in the mantle are limited in depth with no changes in mantle behavior below about 100 km.     

Mossbauer detection of goethite (α-FeOOH) in coal and its potential as an indicator of coal oxidation

Mössbauer spectroscopy of three suites of oxidized coals shows that the transformation of pyrite to FeOOH correlates with other parameters of oxidation. As pyrite is very common in coals and the transformation to FeOOH is sensitive to small degrees of oxidation, the Mössbauer technique shows considerable promise as a means for the detection of coal oxidation.     

Saldanha Bay,South Africa I: the use of ocean colour remote sensing to assess phytoplankton biomass

The efficacy of ocean colour remote sensing in assessing the variability of phytoplankton biomass within Saldanha Bay is examined. Satellite estimates of chlorophyll a (Chl a) were obtained using the maximum peak-height (MPH) algorithm on full-resolution (300?m) data from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). Subsurface Chl a maxima often occur within Saldanha Bay below the mean detection depth of the satellite (1.5?m) during periods of thermal stratification. Consequently, the MPH product was poorly correlated to in situ data from 4?m depth (r² and average relative percentage difference [RPD] of 0.094 and 53% respectively); however, the coefficient of determination was much improved if limited to in situ data collected under conditions of mixing (r² and RPD of 0.869 and 89%, respectively). Composites of monthly MPH Chl a data reveal mean concentrations consistent with in situ seasonal trends of phytoplankton biomass, confirming the capability of the MPH algorithm to qualitatively resolve surface Chl a distribution within the bay.     

Climate change influences on agricultural research productivity

This paper investigates the impacts of climate change on US returns to research investments on agricultural productivity. We examine this using a historical data set in a panel time-series econometric model of state agricultural productivity. The fitted model allows derivation of the rate of return to research investments and the effects of climate change thereon. We find climate change is altering the rate of return to public agricultural research in a spatially heterogeneous manner. Increases in precipitation raise returns to research, while the impact of higher temperatures varies by region, are negative in Southern areas, particularly the Southern Plains, and positive in northern areas. We simulate the impact of projected climate change and find cases where agricultural productivity is reduced, for example in the Southern Plains. Finally, we consider the amount of research investment that is needed to adapt to overcome the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. Under the 2100 scenario, a 7–17 % increase in total US research investment is needed to adapt, but effects by region differ greatly—some requiring little changes and the Southern Plain requiring an increase as high as 57 %.     

Optical properties of particulates

Optical properties of small particles of olivine (less than 0.1 μ) have been studied in the ultraviolet as an example of an insulating solid. Very little structure survives in the ultraviolet extinction curves for such small particles. By contrast ‘surface modes’, observed for graphite small particles in the ultraviolet and for olivine particles in the infrared, produce dominant and persistent structure in extinction. The general trend of optical properties of graphite is surprisingly similar to the behavior required to explain all features of the interstellar extinction and albedo curves from near visible to 1000 Å. Measured extinction of small olivine particles in the infrared agrees with calculations based on newly measured optical constants, but dominant sharp structure in the 10μ region still presents a bit of a problem in explaining ‘silicate’ features in astronomical data.     

Characterizing the severe turbulence environments associated with commercial aviation accidents. A real-time turbulence model (RTTM) designed for the operational prediction of hazardous aviation turbulence environments

Summary In this paper, we will focus on the real-time prediction of environments that are predisposed to producing moderate-severe (hazardous) aviation turbulence. We will describe the numerical model and its postprocessing system that is designed for said prediction of environments predisposed to severe aviation turbulence as well as presenting numerous examples of its utility. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that simple hydrostatic precursor circulations organize regions of preferred wave breaking and turbulence at the nonhydrostatic scales of motion. This will be demonstrated with a hydrostatic numerical modeling system, which can be run in real time on a very inexpensive university computer workstation employing simple forecast indices. The forecast system is designed to efficiently support forecasters who are directing research aircraft to measure the environment immediately surrounding turbulence. The numerical model is MASS version 5.13, which is integrated over three different grid matrices in real-time on a university workstation in support of NASA-Langley’s B-757 turbulence research flight missions. The model horizontal resolutions are 60, 30, and 15 km and the grids are centered over the region of operational NASA-Langley B-757 turbulence flight missions. The postprocessing system includes several turbulence-related products including four turbulence forecasting indices, winds, streamlines, turbulence kinetic energy, and Richardson numbers. Additionally there are convective products including precipitation, cloud height, cloud mass fluxes, lifted index, and K-index. Furthermore, soundings, sounding parameters, and Froude number plots are also provided. The horizontal cross section plot products are provided from 16,000–46,000 feet in 2,000 feet intervals. Products are available every three hours at the 60 and 30 km grid interval and every 1.5 hours at the 15 km grid interval. The model is initialized from the NWS ETA analyses and integrated two times a day.     

Seasonal and sub-seasonal oxygen and nutrient fluctuations in an embayment of an eastern boundary upwelling system: St Helena Bay

Seasonal, sub-seasonal and spatial fluctuations in bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) were examined in St Helena Bay, South Africa’s largest and most productive embayment, between November 2013 and November 2014. Alongshore bay characteristics were assessed through comparison of variables along the 50-m depth contour. A mean coefficient of variation of 0.35 provided a measure of the relative variability of near-bottom DO concentrations along this contour. Consistently lower DO concentrations in the southern region of the bay in summer and autumn are attributed to enhanced retention. Across-shelf transects captured the seasonal development of hypoxia in relation to the distribution of phytoplankton biomass. Exceptional dinoflagellate blooms form extensive subsurface thin layers preceding the autumn DO minima in the south of the bay, prior to winter ventilation of the bottom waters. The seasonal decline in DO concentrations in the bottom waters was marked by sub-seasonal events of hypoxia, and ultimately anoxia linked to episodic deposition of organic matter, as indicated by increases in bottom chlorophyll-a concentrations. Seasonal changes in bottom water macronutrient concentrations followed trends in apparent oxygen utilisation (AOU), both of which mirrored DO concentrations. In the south of the bay, nitrogen loss through denitrification/anammox in suboxic waters was indicated by a dissolved inorganic N deficit in the bottom waters, which was most pronounced in autumn.     

An archeomagnetic analysis of burnt grain bin floors from ca. 1200 to 1250 AD Iron-Age South Africa

Recognition of the rapid decay of Earth’s magnetic field over the last 150 years, chronicled in magnetic observatory and satellite data, highlights the need for a higher resolution record of geomagnetic field behavior over the past millennium. Such a record would help us better understand the nature of the recent dramatic changes. A limitation of the existing database is undersampling of the Southern Hemisphere. Here we investigate the potential of obtaining archeomagnetic data from Iron-Age burnt grain bins from southern Africa. These structures preserve oriented material that can record both paleodirections and paleointensity information. Directional data collected from three sites (ca. 1200–1250 AD) fall 9–22° to the East of predictions. Thellier–Coe and Shaw paleointensity results differ from model values by ～15%. The consistency of results between the three sites suggests that further investigations of these materials with different ages could markedly improve the current spatial distribution of the archeomagnetic database.