Dynamic sub-surface characteristic and the active faults of the Genç District locating over the Bingöl Seismic Gap of the East Anatolian Fault Zone,Eastern Turkey

The Genç District is located on the Bingöl Seismic Gap (BSG) of the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) with its?~?34.000 residents. The Karl?ova Triple Junction, where the EAFZ, the North Anatolian Fault Zone, and the Varto Fault Zone meet, is only 80 km NE of the Genç District. To make an earthquake disaster damage prediction of the Genç District, carrying a high risk of disaster, we have (1) prepared a new geological map, and (2) conducted a single-station microtremor survey. We defined that three SW-NE trending active faults of the sinistral Genç Fault Zone are cutting through the District. We have obtained dominant period (T) as?<?0.2 s, the amplification factor (A) between 8 and 10, the average shear wave velocity for the first 30 m (Vs₃₀) as?<?300 m/s, and the seismic vulnerability index (Kg) as?>?20, in the central part of the Genç District. We have also prepared damage prediction maps for three bedrock acceleration values (0.25, 0.50, 0.75 g). Our earthquake damage prediction scenarios evidenced that as the bedrock acceleration values increase, the area of soil plastic behavior expands linearly. Here we report that if the average expected peak ground acceleration value (0.55–0.625 g) is exceeded during an earthquake, significant damage would be inevitable for the central part of the Genç District where most of the schools, mosques, public buildings, and hospitals are settled-down.

     

Comparison of Static,Kinematic and Dynamic Geodetic Deformation Models for Kutlugün Landslide in Northeastern Turkey

Being the cause of the loss of life and damaging property, landslide is an important natural hazard. Therefore, landslides have to be monitored and preventive measures taken accordingly. In Geodesy, landslides can be determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models. The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic geodetic model for landslides and compare it with static and kinematic geodetic models. A study area was selected in the Northeastern Black Sea Region of Turkey where landslides are the most effective natural hazard. Movements were determined with static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic models using geodetic, geologic and geophysical measurements made in the study area. Groundwater levels changes were regarded as causative forces in the formulation of the dynamic model. The dynamic model delivered more detailed information (direction, values, velocity, acceleration of movements) about landslide movements. It is possible to formulate more realistic strategies about prevention of landslides by using this information. As a result, it can be suggested that dynamic geodetic models are more useful in landslide studies.     

An investigation of seismicity for the Central Anatolia region,Turkey

The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “a” and “b” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw)?≥?4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw?≥?4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.     

Spatial variations of precursory seismic quiescence observed in recent years in the eastern part of Turkey

A statistical analysis is made for the eastern part of Turkey in the beginning of 2009 by studying the phenomenon of seismic quiescence as a potential precursor of the main shocks. The results produced four areas having seismic quiescence in the beginning of 2009. These areas are observed to be centered at 39.96°N–40.69°E (around A?kale, Erzurum), 39.36°N–39.74°E (around Ovac?k, Tunceli), 39.02°N–40.52°E (including Elaz?? and Bingöl), and 38.45°N–42.94°E (Van Lake). Based on the recent results showing 5 ± 1.5 years quiescence before the occurrence of an earthquake in this region, the future earthquake would be expected between 2009.5 and 2010.5. The future earthquake occurrence may reach 2012 if we consider the standard deviation of average seismic quiescence as ±1.5 years. We have found that the M _W = 6.0 Elaz?? earthquake on 8 March 2010, followed a seismic quiescence starting about 5 years before the main shock. Thus, special interest should be given to the other regions where the seismic quiescence is observed.     

Regional Variations of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">ω</Emphasis>-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (M_max). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900–2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M₁₀₀) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max M_{K ? S}^max) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.     

Lateral variations of the modal (a/b) values for the different regions of the world

Several catalogues of global earthquakes reported for the time period from 1900 to 2000 have been compiled to examine lateral variations of the modal (a/b) values as derived from the Gutenberg–Richter empirical law. For this purpose, the world was divided into 27 different seismic regions in terms of tectonic environments. The parameters a and b were calculated using the least-squares method. The modal values computed for each region were used to produce a global map of the modal values using a grid space of 3°. The results show that a and b-values do not always supply much information about tectonic environments of the different regions. It is observed that the modal values estimated for different tectonic regions are consistent with seismicity of the world and represent global seismic sources better than a or b values. The highest modal values have been found in the oceanic subduction zones, and the lowest values in the oceanic ridges. Lowest b values are observed in trenches. These observations suggest that there is a correlation between apparent stresses and b values. Mapping of the modal values provides detailed images of the zones presenting low and high seismic activity and it may be used as a measure of seismic potential sources and relative hazard levels.     

Preconcentration by Coprecipitation of Copper and Nickel with Mo(VI)/Triazole Derivative System and Their Determinations by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry in Food and Water Samples

A new separation and preconcentration technique based on coprecipitation of Cu(II) and Ni(II) ions by the aid of Mo(VI)/di‐tert‐butyl{methylenebis[5‐(chlorobenzyl)‐4H‐1,2,4‐triazol‐3,4‐diyl]}biscarbamate (BUMECTAC) precipitate has been established. The Mo(VI)/BUMECTAC precipitate was dissolved by concentrated HNO₃ and the solution was completed to 5.0 mL with distilled/deionized water. The levels of the analyte ions were determined by flame atomic absorption spectrometer. The effects of experimental conditions like HNO₃ concentration, amount of BUMECTAC and Mo(VI), sample volume, etc. and also the influences of some foreign ions were investigated in detail on the quantitative recoveries of analyte ions. The preconcentration factors were found to be 40 for Cu(II) and 100 for Ni(II) ions. The detection limits for Cu(II) and Ni(II) ions based on 3σ (N:10) were 0.43 and 0.70 µg L^?1, respectively. The relative standard deviations were found to be lower than 4.0% for both analyte ions. The accuracy of the method was checked by spiked/recovery tests and the analysis of two certified reference materials (Environment Canada TM‐25.3 and CRM‐SA‐C Sandy Soil C). The procedure was successfully applied to sea water and stream water as liquid samples and baby food as solid sample in order to determine the levels of Cu(II) and Ni(II) ions.     

Remote sensing and GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and analytical hierarchy methods in Rize province (NE Turkey)

The northeast part of Turkey is prone to landslides because of the climatic conditions, as well as geologic and geomorphologic characteristics of the region. Especially, frequent landslides in the Rize province often result in significant damage to people and property. Therefore, in order to mitigate the damage from landslides and help the planners in selecting suitable locations for implementing development projects, especially in large areas, it is necessary to scientifically assess susceptible areas. In this study, the frequency ratio method and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) were used to produce susceptibility maps. Especially, AHP gives best results because of allowing better structuring of various components, including both objective and subjective aspects and comparing them by a logical and thorough method, which involves a matrix-based pairwise comparison of the contribution of different factors for landslide. For this purpose, lithology, slope angle, slope aspect, land cover, distance to stream, drainage density, and distance to road were considered as landslide causal factors for the study area. The processing of multi-geodata sets was carried out in a raster GIS environment. Lithology was derived from the geological database and additional field studies; slope angle, slope aspect, distance to stream, distance to road and drainage density were invented from digital elevation models; land cover was produced from remote sensing imagery. In the end of study, the results of the analysis were verified using actual landslide location data. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations.     

An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau based on the Gumbel III distribution

The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M _w ? ≥?4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late?×?1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M _w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M _w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.