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Yongbo Gao Christoph Merz Gunnar Lischeid Michael Schneider 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(2):47
Like almost all fields of science, hydrology has benefited to a large extent from the tremendous improvements in scientific instruments that are able to collect long-time data series and an increase in available computational power and storage capabilities over the last decades. Many model applications and statistical analyses (e.g., extreme value analysis) are based on these time series. Consequently, the quality and the completeness of these time series are essential. Preprocessing of raw data sets by filling data gaps is thus a necessary procedure. Several interpolation techniques with different complexity are available ranging from rather simple to extremely challenging approaches. In this paper, various imputation methods available to the hydrological researchers are reviewed with regard to their suitability for filling gaps in the context of solving hydrological questions. The methodological approaches include arithmetic mean imputation, principal component analysis, regression-based methods and multiple imputation methods. In particular, autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models which originate from finance and econometrics will be discussed regarding their applicability to data series characterized by non-constant volatility and heteroscedasticity in hydrological contexts. The review shows that methodological advances driven by other fields of research bear relevance for a more intensive use of these methods in hydrology. Up to now, the hydrological community has paid little attention to the imputation ability of time series models in general and ARCH models in particular. 相似文献
3.
Gunnar G. Lauenstein 《Marine pollution bulletin》1995,30(12):826-833
Organic contaminant concentrations in mussels and oysters were compared between archived samples of a Mussel Watch Program of the 1970s and samples collected more recently by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admnistration's National Status and Trends Program. Archived samples were analysed using current analytical techniques. Chlorinated pesticides and PAHs (polyaromatic hydrocarbons) displayed significant decreases between the 1970s and the 1990s. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and butyltins were found in higher concentrations in 1986 than in the 1970s samples. Concentrations for both have decreased since 1986. The original 1970s analytical results were also compared with current analytical results from archived samples. Results were comparable for DDE and were generally comparable for the greater than three-ring PAHs. Results were also comparable for PCBs, even though the early methods quantified Arochlor 1254 and the more recent method quantifies PCBs by congener. 相似文献
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Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between kettle holes and shallow groundwater, particularly in reaction to the highly variable local meteorological conditions, is of paramount importance for tracing water in a hydro(geo)logically complex landscape and thus for integrated water resource management. This article is aimed at identifying the dominant hydrological processes affecting the kettle holes' water balance and their interactions with the shallow groundwater domain in the Uckermark region, located in the north-east of Germany. For this reason, based on the stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O ) and hydrogen (δ2H ), an isotopic mass balance model was employed to compute the evaporative loss of water from the kettle holes from February to August 2017. Results demonstrated that shallow groundwater inflow may play the pivotal role in the processes taking part in the hydrology of the kettle holes in the Uckermark region. Based on the calculated evaporation/inflow (E/I) ratios, most of the kettle holes (86.7%) were ascertained to have a partially open, flow-through-dominated system. Moreover, we identified an inverse correlation between E/I ratios and the altitudes of the kettle holes. The same holds for electrical conductivity (EC) and the altitudes of the kettle holes. In accordance with the findings obtained from this study, a conceptual model explaining the interaction between the shallow groundwater and the kettle holes of Uckermark was developed. The model exhibited that across the highest altitudes, the recharge kettle holes are dominant, where a lower ratio of E/I and a lower EC was detected. By contrast, the lowest topographical depressions represent the discharge kettle holes, where a higher ratio of E/I and EC could be identified. The kettle holes existing in between were categorized as flow-through kettle holes through which the recharge takes place from one side and discharge from the other side. 相似文献
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The authors examined the variability in wintertime cyclone activity and storm tracks and their relation to precipitation over China for the period 1951–2006 using the observational data.Two apparent modes of variability were assumed for the cyclone activity and storm tracks.The first mode describes the oscillation in the strength of the storm tracks in East Asia,which significantly increased since the mid-1980s,whereas the second mode describes a seesaw oscillation in the storm track strength between the Central-Southeast China and northern East Asia.The storm tracks over the Central-Southeast China have increased since the late 1960s.The possible causes for the variation of the cyclone activity and storm tracks are also explored.It is shown that wintertime precipitation,which has increased since the mid-1980s,concentrates in Central-Southeast China.The enhancement may be caused by the first mode of variability of storm tracks,whereas the interannual variability of precipitation may be linked to the second mode of the storm track variability. 相似文献
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We measured the emissions of volatile aliphatic amines and ammonia produced by the manure of beef cattle, dairy cows, swine, laying hens and horses in livestock buildings. The amine emissions consisted almost exclusively of the three methylamines and correlated with those of ammonia. The molar emission ratios of the methylamines to ammonia, and data on NH3 emissions from animal husbandry in Europe, together with global statistics on domestic animals, were used to estimate the global emissions of amines. Annual global methylamine-N input to the atmosphere from animal husbandry in 1988 was 0.15±0.06 TgN (Tg=1012 g). Almost 3/4 of these emissions consisted of trimethylamine-N. This represents about half of all methylamine emissions to the atmosphere. Other sources are marine coastal waters and biomass burning.Possible reaction pathways for atmospheric methylamines are shown. Among various speculative but possible products N2O and HCN are of interest because the emission of methylamines could contribute to the global budgets of these compounds. Maximum atmospheric N2O production from methylamines are below 0.4 Tg N/year, which is less than 10% of the annual N2O growth rate. Although we do not expect the methylamine emissions to contribute in a major way to the atmospheric N2O budget, more studies are needed to establish this conclusion beyond doubt. Similar conclusions hold for HCN. 相似文献
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Philip G. Oguntunde Babatunde J. Abiodun Gunnar Lischeid 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2012,118(1-2):95-105
Trends and periodicity analyses can provide information on climate variability inherent in a particular variable. In this study, trend tests and spectral analysis are used to examine the existence of trends and cycles in temperature series (1901–2000) of Nigeria. Periods 1901–1929 and 1942–1980 exhibited cooling trends while 1930–1941 and 1981–2000 showed warming trends. The warmest years in Nigeria were 1941, 1935, 1931 and 1987. The coldest years were 1929, 1975, 1925 and 1974. Whereas no significant trends were detected for 1901–1930 period, the standard period 1931–1960 was marked by significant cooling while 1961–1990 was marked with significant warming. Annual temperature has risen by 0.03?°C/decade during the last century. The overall warming was mostly confined to the south of 12°N especially during April and June. Changes in minimum temperature are higher than that of maximum temperature. The quasi-biennial oscillation was found in annual data for all the six zones with periods of about 2–4?years. Nigeria landscape is under strong North Atlantic Oscillation influence in dry season and under ENSO influence during wet season. Annual temperature series was also found to exhibit significant negative correlation with SOI. 相似文献
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Changes in ownership of limited entry permits by “local” residents of the region where a fishery occurs may have significant economic and social implications for fishery-dependent regions. This paper examines changes in local permit ownership in Alaska salmon fisheries, for which a long-term decline in rural local permit ownership is an important policy concern. Theoretically, permit markets allocate permits over time to the individuals who are willing to pay the most for them. Any factors that differentially affect what local and non-local residents are willing to pay for permits may affect the equilibrium share of permits held by local residents. For remote rural fisheries in particular, these may include differences between local and non-local residents with respect to access to and costs of financing permits and boats, costs of travel to the fishery, opportunity costs of participation in the fishery, and many other factors. As a fishery increases in profitability, differences between local and non-local residents in access to financing matter more while differences in costs of travel and opportunity costs matter less in the relative ranking of what local and non-local residents are willing to pay for permits. This tends to increase the share of non-local residents among buyers willing to pay the market price for permits, reducing the equilibrium share of permits held by local residents. This leads to a conflict between two important policy goals: increasing fishery profitability and maintaining rural local permit ownership. Consistent with predictions of this theory, the local share of permit ownership in Alaska salmon fisheries is negatively related to permit prices (an indicator of fishery profitability). 相似文献