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1.
In newly burnt and unburnt pine and eucalyptus forest in Portugal, overland flow and soil losses were monitored to assess the impacts of the following post-fire treatments: application of different quantities of logging litter; rip-ploughing compared with minimum tillage prior to planting eucalyptus seedlings; and clearance of pine needles and vegetation. Eucalyptus logging litter reduced soil losses by up to 95 per cent. The impact of pine logging litter was equivocal, but removal of pine needles increased soil losses elevenfold. Implications for soil longevity, soil quality and land management strategy are discussed.  相似文献   
2.
The effects of small fractions ( < 30%) of open water covering a grid element are currently neglected even in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) which incorporate complex land surface parameterization schemes. Here, a method for simulating sub-grid scale open water is proposed which permits any existing land surface model to be modified to account for open water. This new parameterization is tested as an addition to an advanced land surface scheme and, as expected, is shown to produce general increases in the surface latent heat flux at the expense of the surface sensible heat flux. Small changes in temperature are associated with this change in the partitioning of available energy which is driven by an increase in the wetness of the grid element. The sensitivity of the land surface to increasing amounts of open water is dependent upon the type of vegetation represented. Dense vegetation (with a high leaf area index) is shown to complicate the apparently simple model sensitivity and indicates that more advanced methods of incorporating open water into AGCMs need to be considered and compared against the parameterization suggested here. However, the sensitivity of one land surface model to incorporating open water is large enough to warrant consideration of its incorporation into climate models.  相似文献   
3.
The Thukela Bank, KwaZulu-Natal, supports a diverse ecosystem and South Africa’s only prawn fishery. Oceanographic studies suggest riverine input is not important for the biology of this system, whereas biological studies suggest the contrary, with prawn catches increasing with increased fluvial run-off. The aim of this study was to determine (i) the importance of riverine and marine organic matter for the Thukela Bank food web; and (ii) whether there are seasonal changes in the Thukela River stable isotope values, and, if so, whether these are reflected in the isotope values of demersal organisms. Estuarine organic matter, sediments and demersal organisms were collected from several sites across the bank in the wet and dry seasons of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Marine particulate organic matter was also collected in 2010 and analysed for δ13C and δ15N, as well as C/N ratios. There were strong seasonal changes in isotopic values of organic matter and fauna, especially faunal δ13C. There was an apparent time-lag in organisms assimilating riverine organic matter isotopic values, with the isotopic signature of demersal organisms reflecting that of riverine organic matter from the previous season, which is likely the result of tissue turnover time. In 2010, Thukela Bank sediment organic matter was of riverine origin and this maintained the demersal food web. We conclude that Thukela River organic matter is an important input to the food web of the Thukela Bank, indicating that any future damming of the catchment area could have serious consequences for this ecosystem.  相似文献   
4.
MODFLOW 2000 head uncertainty,a first-order second moment method   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
A computationally efficient method to estimate the variance and covariance in piezometric head results computed through MODFLOW 2000 using a first-order second moment (FOSM) approach is presented. This methodology employs a first-order Taylor series expansion to combine model sensitivity with uncertainty in geologic data. MODFLOW 2000 is used to calculate both the ground water head and the sensitivity of head to changes in input data. From a limited number of samples, geologic data are extrapolated and their associated uncertainties are computed through a conditional probability calculation. Combining the spatially related sensitivity and input uncertainty produces the variance-covariance matrix, the diagonal of which is used to yield the standard deviation in MODFLOW 2000 head. The variance in piezometric head can be used for calibrating the model, estimating confidence intervals, directing exploration, and evaluating the reliability of a design. A case study illustrates the approach, where aquifer transmissivity is the spatially related uncertain geologic input data. The FOSM methodology is shown to be applicable for calculating output uncertainty for (1) spatially related input and output data, and (2) multiple input parameters (transmissivity and recharge).  相似文献   
5.
Marine bioregional planning requires a meaningful classification and spatial delineation of the ocean environment using biological and physical characteristics. The relative inaccessibility of much of the ocean and the paucity of directly measured data spanning entire planning regions mean that surrogate data, such as satellite imagery, are frequently used to develop spatial classifications. However, due to a lack of appropriate biological data, these classifications often rely on abiotic variables, which act as surrogates for biodiversity. The aim of this study was to produce a fine-scale bioregional classification, using multivariate clustering, for the inshore and offshore marine environment off the east coast of South Africa, adjacent to the province of KwaZulu-Natal and out to the boundary of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), 200 nautical miles offshore. We used remotely sensed data of sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a and turbidity, together with interpolated bathymetry and continental-slope data, as well as additional inshore data on sediments, seabed oxygen and bottom temperature. A multivariate k-means analysis was used to produce a fine-scale marine bioregionalisation, with three bioregions subdivided into 12 biozones. The offshore classification was primarily a pelagic bioregionalisation, whereas the inshore classification (on the continental shelf) was a coupled benthopelagic bioregionalisation, owing to the availability of benthic data for this area. The resulting classification was used as a base layer for a systematic conservation plan developed for the province, and provided the methods for subsequent planning conducted for the entire South African EEZ. Validation of the classification is currently being conducted in marine research programmes that are sampling benthic biota and habitats in a sampling design stratified according to the biozones delineated in this study.  相似文献   
6.
A computationally efficient method to direct and evaluate the sufficiency of site characterization data is demonstrated on two synthetic subsurface geometries. This method, entitled reliability-based exploration (RBE), combines three-dimensional subsurface analysis and uncertainty in the geologic data to produce a quantifiable measure of data sufficiency, which is directly related to the probability of project success. The RBE approach is illustrated with a three-dimensional finite element soil deformation model, where interfaces separating geologic units are the subsurface data of interest. The RBE method begins with a prior model of the subsurface, which can include geologic judgement. As new information is collected at a site, the prior subsurface model is updated with site data. During the RBE analysis, both a probability of project success and the location of the next boring are computed. The robustness of this computation is illustrated with a practical example of the automatic exploration of two different pinching geometries. The subsurface geometry is imposed on these two sites to demonstrate the importance of geology on the computed results. A comparison of the modeled subsurface and the true (or defined) subsurface at each site shows a close match directly below the proposed structure, where calculated settlement is most sensitive to uncertainty in geology. The study demonstrated that to achieve the same exploration sufficiency more data are required at the site with abruptly changing subsurface geometry than at the site with gradually changing geometry.  相似文献   
7.
8.
The genetic structure of populations is often shaped by the reproductive system and larval properties of the species. The waratah anemone (Actinia tenebrosa) reproduces through both asexual clones, which have very short-distance dispersal, and sexual larvae, which are believed to disperse much greater distances. The impact of this mixed strategy on the New Zealand population structure of Actinia tenebrosa was investigated using microsatellite markers. The analysis incorporated 24 sampling locations from around New Zealand and one Australian location, using four microsatellite markers, n = 420. We observed low connectivity and high genetic differentiation between all locations sampled, with a distinct pattern of isolation by distance. The most distinct grouping of locations sampled was the north-east of the North Island from Cape Reinga to East Cape, which was identified by SAMOVA and STRUCTURE analyses as being moderately diverged from the remainder of the country. A tentative correlation was observed between genetic clustering and biogeographic regionalisation, where the distribution of a number of genetic clusters matched previously defined biogeographic regions. Within each location sampled, large numbers of clones were present and a latitudinal cline was observed in the relative contribution of asexually and sexually generated recruits, with an increase in asexual recruits on the South Island's east coast.  相似文献   
9.
A first‐order Taylor series method including direct derivative coding (DDC) is presented as a computationally efficient method for producing the probability distribution associated with calculated geotechnical performance. The probability distribution is employed in reliability analyses to calculate the probability of failure, valuable information that is not typically associated with deterministic analyses. The probability distribution also is used to identify important input parameters and to direct sampling efforts. Another approach to generate the probability distribution is the Monte Carlo (MC) method, however, Taylor series results generally are calculated in less time than the MC approach. One key to the implementation of the Taylor series approach is efficient approximation of the sensitivities required by the Taylor series calculation. DDC provides the technique to produce an efficient Taylor series algorithm. Directly coding the sensitivity analysis into the engineering model is accomplished by automatic and hand programming of derivatives. ADIFOR 2.0 was employed to automatically add derivatives to an existing engineering analysis model. For this paper a meshing program and 3D FEM for soil deformation is used to demonstrate the DDC approach. Although DDC requires a large up‐front programming effort, it is not site or data specific. Therefore, once the derivative programming has been performed, the numerical model can be applied to a wide variety of problems without additional user intervention. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
10.
Global climate change is a qualitatively distinct, and very significant, addition to the spectrum of environmental health hazards encountered by humankind. Historically, environmental health concerns have focused on toxicological or microbiological risks to health from local exposures. However, the scale of environmental health hazards is today increasing; indeed, the burgeoning human impact on the environment has begun to alter global biophysical systems (such as the climate system). As a consequence, a range of larger-scale environmental hazards to human population health has emerged. This includes the health risks posed by climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity, stresses on terrestrial and ocean food-producing systems, changes in hydrological systems and the supplies of freshwater, and the global spread of persistent organic pollutants. Appreciation of this scale and type of influence on human health entails an ecological perspective — a perspective that recognises that the foundations of long-term good health in populations reside in the continued stability and functioning of the biosphere's "life-supporting" ecological and physical systems. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
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