Microearthquake seismicity and active tectonics of northwestern Greece

We carried out a microearthquake survey lasting for six weeks in northwest Greece using 18 portable seismograph stations to examine a region in which normal and thrust faulting have been reported in close proximity to one another. With this array we located 148 events and determined fault plane solutions for eight events using only rays radiated upwards. The seismicity of the region is diffuse with events extending to depths of nearly 30 km, and there is a minimum in activity near a depth of 15 km. The fault plane solutions exhibit a wide spectrum of fault types and orientations and are not consistent with simple zones of shortening or extension. Neither tractions applied to the edges or bottom of the region nor deviatoric stresses that compensate for lateral variations in crustal thickness can account for the variety of fault plane solutions. We think that the complicated behavior is a manifestation of inhomogeneous deformation due, at least in part, to a pre-existing complicated juxtaposition of structures and formations.     

The initial subevent of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake: Is earthquake size predictable?

We examine the initial subevent (ISE) of the M 6.7, 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake in order to discriminate between two end-member rupture initiation models: the preslip and cascade models. Final earthquake size may be predictable from an ISE's seismic signature in the preslip model but not in the cascade model. In the cascade model ISEs are simply small earthquakes that can be described as purely dynamic ruptures. In this model a large earthquake is triggered by smaller earthquakes; there is no size scaling between triggering and triggered events and a variety of stress transfer mechanisms are possible. Alternatively, in the preslip model, a large earthquake nucleates as an aseismically slipping patch in which the patch dimension grows and scales with the earthquake's ultimate size; the byproduct of this loading process is the ISE. In this model, the duration of the ISE signal scales with the ultimate size of the earthquake, suggesting that nucleation and earthquake size are determined by a more predictable, measurable, and organized process. To distinguish between these two end-member models we use short period seismograms recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We address questions regarding the similarity in hypocenter locations and focal mechanisms of the ISE and the mainshock. We also compare the ISE's waveform characteristics to those of small earthquakes and to the beginnings of earthquakes with a range of magnitudes. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both models and thus do not discriminate between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical small earthquakes in the vicinity and more importantly, do not scale with the mainshock magnitude. These results are more consistent with the cascade model.     

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for the northwestern portion of the state of Gujarat, India

We test the sensitivity of seismic hazard to three fault source models for the northwestern portion of Gujarat, India. The models incorporate different characteristic earthquake magnitudes on three faults with individual recurrence intervals of either 800 or 1600 years. These recurrence intervals imply that large earthquakes occur on one of these faults every 266–533 years, similar to the rate of historic large earthquakes in this region during the past two centuries and for earthquakes in intraplate environments like the New Madrid region in the central United States. If one assumes a recurrence interval of 800 years for large earthquakes on each of three local faults, the peak ground accelerations (PGA; horizontal) and 1-Hz spectral acceleration ground motions (5% damping) are greater than 1 g over a broad region for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years' hazard level. These probabilistic PGAs at this hazard level are similar to median deterministic ground motions. The PGAs for 10% in 50 years' hazard level are considerably lower, generally ranging between 0.2 g and 0.7 g across northwestern Gujarat. Ground motions calculated from our models that consider fault interevent times of 800 years are considerably higher than other published models even though they imply similar recurrence intervals. These higher ground motions are mainly caused by the application of intraplate attenuation relations, which account for less severe attenuation of seismic waves when compared to the crustal interplate relations used in these previous studies. For sites in Bhuj and Ahmedabad, magnitude (M) 7 3/4 earthquakes contribute most to the PGA and the 0.2- and 1-s spectral acceleration ground motion maps at the two considered hazard levels.     

Dynamic deformations and the M6.7, Northridge, California earthquake

A method of estimating the complete time-varying dynamic formation field from commonly available three-component single station seismic data has been developed and applied to study the relationship between dynamic deformation and ground failures and structural damage using observations from the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake. Estimates from throughout the epicentral region indicate that the horizontal strains exceed the vertical ones by more than a factor of two. The largest strains (exceeding 100 pstrain) correlate with regions of greatest ground failure. There is a poor correlation between structural damage and peak strain amplitudes. The smallest strains,35 pstrain, are estimated in regions of no damage or ground failure. Estimates in the two regions with most severe and well mapped permanent deformation, Potrero Canyon and the Granada-Mission Hills regions, exhibit the largest strains; peak horizontal strains estimates in these regions equal 1351 and 229 μstrain respectively. Of note, the dynamic principal strain axes have strikers consistent with the permanent failure features suggesting that, while gravity, sub-surface materials, and hydrologic conditions undoubtedly played fundamental roles in determining where and what types of failures occurred, the dynamic deformation field may have been favorably sized and oriented to initiate failure processes. These results support other studies that conclude that the permanent deformation resulted from ground shaking, rather than from static strains associated with primary or secondary faulting. They also suggest that such an analysis, either using data or theoretical calculations, may enable observations of paleo-ground failure to be used as quantitative constraints on the size and geometry of previous earthquakes.     

High resolution seismic imaging of faults beneath Limón Bay, northern Panama Canal, Republic of Panama

High-resolution seismic reflection profiles from Limón Bay, Republic of Panama, were acquired as part of a seismic hazard investigation of the northern Panama Canal region. The seismic profiles image gently west and northwest dipping strata of upper Miocene Gatún Formation, unconformably overlain by a thin (<20 m) sequence of Holocene muds. Numerous faults, which have northeast trends where they can be correlated between seismic profiles, break the upper Miocene strata. Some of the faults have normal displacement, but on many faults, the amount and type of displacement cannot be determined. The age of displacement is constrained to be Late Miocene or younger, and regional geologic considerations suggest Pliocene movement. The faults may be part of a more extensive set of north- to northeast-trending faults and fractures in the canal region of central Panama. Low topography and the faults in the canal area may be the result of the modern regional stress field, bending of the Isthmus of Panama, shearing in eastern Panama, or minor deformation of the Panama Block above the Caribbean subduction zone. For seismic hazard analysis of the northern canal area, these faults led us to include a source zone of shallow faults proximal to northern canal facilities.