区域性地质灾害气象预报方法研究

从气象的角度，基于对全国地质灾害预警区域的划分，利用历史地质灾害记录以及历史气象资料，分区建立了全国范围的区域气象潜势预报模型，并从2003年6月1日开始投入业务应用。总体预报服务效果较好，收到了较好的社会效益。同时还要进一步加强科学研究，提高科技含量，优化预报模型。     

Impact of land-cover and climate changes on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the SWAT model to simulate streamflow with validation and calibration of the observed yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag hydrological station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increasing of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2oC and precipitation increases by 20%, catchment runoff will increase by 39.69%, which is the largest situation among all scenarios.     

1617号鲇鱼台风登陆后引发不同性质暴雨的成因对比分析

2016年9月28日1617号台风"鲇鱼"登陆后由台风本体环流和外围环流引发了不同性质的暴雨,这是本次秋季登陆台风暴雨预报的难点。利用常规气象观测资料以及NCEP的1°×1°再分析资料等,对不同性质暴雨的成因进行了诊断对比分析。结果表明:浙江东南部对流性降水和江西南部稳定性降水的大气层结结构具有明显的差异。中高纬度低槽距离台风较远,冷空气主要从低层入侵台风西北侧,破坏台风低层的暖心结构。台风外围中层干冷空气随东南风向浙江东南部输送,并叠加在低层暖湿气流之上,形成上冷下暖的不稳定层结,同时在对流层上层有干冷空气下沉至台风环流中下层(干侵入),导致浙江文成附近出现了局地特大暴雨。江西南部由于低层被湿冷空气占据,层结较为稳定,降水发展平缓。低空东南急流为台风外围环流暴雨提供了充足的水汽,浙江东南部地形对降水起到了增幅作用。不稳定层结及中层冷空气的输送对对流性暴雨的激发作用可以为登陆台风降水性质和强度预报提供参考依据。     

鲁西金岭矽卡岩型铁矿区早白垩世石英闪长岩成因:年代学和地球化学证据

金岭岩体是鲁西地区代表性的中生代侵入杂岩体,与金岭矽卡岩型铁矿的成因密切相关.为了解石英闪长岩的成因及与矽卡岩铁矿成矿关系,本次研究对金岭杂岩体中的石英闪长岩进行了年代学、地球化学及锆石Lu—Hf同位素和角闪石矿物微区成分的系统研究.LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学显示石英闪长岩加权平均年龄为(128±1)Ma,侵...     

1：5万地形图框架数据质量影响因素分析

数据质量成因分析是地图数据质量控制的一项基础性的工作，只有找出产生误差的原因才能提出控制质量方法。本文介绍了1：5万框架图数据生产的基本情况，详细分析了产生框架图数据误差的诸多原因，认为地图数据质量与生产模式、生产条件、技术准备、作业环境、生产资料、技术培训、软件系统、作业人员等多种因素有关。     

Approximate analysis for relative motion of satellite formation flying in elliptical orbits

This paper studies the relative motion of satellite formation flying in arbitrary elliptical orbits with no perturbation. The trajectories of the leader and follower satellites are projected onto the celestial sphere. These two projections and celestial equator intersect each other to form a spherical triangle, in which the vertex angles and arc-distances are used to describe the relative motion equations. This method is entitled the reference orbital element approach. Here the dimensionless distance is defined as the ratio of the maximal distance between the leader and follower satellites to the semi-major axis of the leader satellite. In close formations, this dimensionless distance, as well as some vertex angles and arc-distances of this spherical triangle, and the orbital element differences are small quantities. A series of order-of-magnitude analyses about these quantities are conducted. Consequently, the relative motion equations are approximated by expansions truncated to the second order, i.e. square of the dimensionless distance. In order to study the problem of periodicity of relative motion, the semi-major axis of the follower is expanded as Taylor series around that of the leader, by regarding relative position and velocity as small quantities. Using this expansion, it is proved that the periodicity condition derived from Lawden’s equations is equivalent to the condition that the Taylor series of order one is zero. The first-order relative motion equations, simplified from the second-order ones, possess the same forms as the periodic solutions of Lawden’s equations. It is presented that the latter are further first-order approximations to the former; and moreover, compared with the latter more suitable to research spacecraft rendezvous and docking, the former are more suitable to research relative orbit configurations. The first-order relative motion equations are expanded as trigonometric series with eccentric anomaly as the angle variable. Except the terms of order one, the trigonometric series’ amplitudes are geometric series, and corresponding phases are constant both in the radial and in-track directions. When the trajectory of the in-plane relative motion is similar to an ellipse, a method to seek this ellipse is presented. The advantage of this method is shown by an example.     

情感地理视角下脱贫村农户情感重构——以湖南省十八洞村为例

以湖南省花垣县十八洞村为案例地,以“留守”农户和“返乡”农户为研究对象,基于情感地理视角,通过深度访谈法和参与式观察法探究了精准扶贫政策影响下农户情感重构及其重构机制。结果表明：1）脱贫村农户情感重构主要包括归属感、幸福感、风险厌恶感、相对剥夺感和失落感5个维度的重构,这些维度相互影响、相互制约。2）精准扶贫政策的实施使得脱贫村农户地方归属感上升,幸福感增强,风险厌恶感下降。然而,扶贫力度的不均衡导致农户间的相对剥夺感增强,传统文化的消解和社会关系的重构等使得农户产生失落感。3）在脱贫村农户情感重构过程中,农户认知是核心力量,政府行动起主导作用,企业行动发挥辅助作用。政府和企业行动通过重构乡村地域系统的物质空间、经济空间和社会空间刺激乡村地域主体即农户认知转变,继而引发情感的重构。     

Artificial Martian frozen orbits and Sun-Synchronous orbits using continuous low-thrust control

This paper analyses three types of artificial orbits around Mars pushed by continuous low-thrust control: artificial frozen orbits, artificial Sun-Synchronous orbits and artificial Sun-Synchronous frozen orbits. These artificial orbits have similar characteristics to natural frozen orbits and Sun-Synchronous orbits, and their orbital parameters can be selected arbitrarily by using continuous low-thrust control. One control strategy to achieve the artificial frozen orbit is using both the transverse and radial continuous low-thrust control, and another to achieve the artificial Sun-Synchronous orbit is using the normal continuous low-thrust control. These continuous low-thrust control strategies consider J ₂, J ₃, and J ₄ perturbations of Mars. It is proved that both control strategies can minimize characteristic velocity. Relevant formulas are derived, and numerical results are presented. Given the same initial orbital parameters, the control acceleration and characteristic velocity taking into account J ₂, J ₃, and J ₄ perturbations are similar to those taking into account J ₂ perturbations for both Mars and the Earth. The control thrust of the orbit around Mars is smaller than that around the Earth. The magnitude of the control acceleration of ASFOM-4 (named as Artificial Sun-Synchronous Frozen Orbit Method 4) is the lowest among these strategies and the characteristic velocity within one orbital period is only 0.5219 m/s for the artificial Sun-Synchronous frozen orbit around Mars. It is evident that the relationship among the control thrusts and the primary orbital parameters of Martian artificial orbits is always similar to that of the Earth. Simulation shows that the control scheme extends the orbital parameters’ selection range of three types of orbits around Mars, compared with the natural frozen orbit and Sun-Synchronous orbit.     

2007年梅汛期异常降水的大尺度环流成因分析

为深入理解江淮梅雨持续性强降水的大气演变过程,探讨中期预报技术途径,利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析数据和历史梅雨特征指数等资料,系统地分析了2007年梅汛期异常降水的大尺度环流成因.结果表明:梅汛期,西北太平洋副热带高压稳定和7月中下旬持续偏南,决定了2007年梅汛期降水的时间和地域分布特征.阻塞高压的频繁出现和副热带季风涌的异常强盛为梅雨锋维持和加强提供了有利的动力、热力以及水汽条件;"伊朗型"南亚高压的活动以及东亚上空副热带急流通过高低空耦合动力作用,不仅为持续性暴雨创造了良好的垂直环流结构,也间接抑制了副高北抬.在此研究基础上,归纳出中期预报着眼点,供实际业务预报参考使用.     

Decadal variability and trends of oceanic barrier layers in tropical Pacific

Decadal variability and trends of the isothermal layer depth (ILD), mixed layer depth (MLD), and barrier layer thickness (BLT) were analyzed for the tropical Pacific during 1979–2015. The decadal variability of ILD, MLD, and BLT shows a close connection with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). At PDO positive phase, the eastward shift of precipitation and weakened trade winds result in thinner BLT in western Pacific and thicker BLT in central and eastern Pacific. The situation is reversed at PDO negative phase. The differences in BLT can be up to 9–15 m. The spatial distributions of decadal trends of ILD and MLD are complex, but a thickening of BLT in the western tropical Pacific is clearly present. The raw trends of ILD, MLD, and BLT averaged in the tropical Pacific (30° N–30° S, 120° E–75° W) from 1979 to 2015 are 1.62, 1.20, and 0.51 m per decade, respectively. PDO can explain about 25% of the increasing trends of BLT, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) only explains about 1.7%. Global warming and/or variability at longer time scales is responsible for the remaining increasing trends. The BLT change is related to the warming and freshening of the western Pacific warm pool in recent decades. The ocean-atmosphere interactions about trade winds, wind-driven ocean circulation, temperature, and precipitation/evaporation are discussed.