A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities

A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫₀ ^∞ P^*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P^* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.     

High-T phase transition of synthetic ANaB(LiMg)CMg5Si8O22(OH)2 amphibole: an X-ray synchrotron powder diffraction and FTIR spectroscopic study

The synthetic amphibole Na_0.95(Li_0.95Mg_1.05)Mg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ was studied in situ at high-T, using IR OH-stretching spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction. At room-T the sample has P2₁ /m symmetry, as shown by the FTIR spectrum. It shows in the OH region two well-defined and intense absorptions at 3,748 and 3,712 cm⁻¹, respectively, and two minor bands at 3,667 and 3,687 cm⁻¹. The main bands are assigned to the two independent O–H groups in the primitive structure. The two minor bands evidencing the presence of small amount of vacant A-site (^A□_0.05). With increasing T, these bands shift continuously and merge into a unique absorption at high temperature. A change as a function of increasing T is revealed by the evolution of the refined unit-cell parameters, whose trend shows a transition to C2/m at about 320–330°C. The spontaneous scalar strain, fitted with a tricritical 2–6 Landau potential, gives a T _c of 325(10)°C (β parameter = 0.27). Comparison with the second-order P2₁ /m ⇔ C2/m phase transition at 255°C for synthetic amphibole ^ANa_0.8^B(Na_0.8Mg_1.2)^CMg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ indicates that the substitution of Na with Li at the B-sites strongly affects the thermodynamic character and the T _c of the phase transition. The comparison of LNMSH amphiboles with cummingtonitic ones shows that the high-T thermodynamic behaviour is affected by A-site occupancy.     

Tidal Habitats Support Large Numbers of Invasive Blue Catfish in a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary

The introduction of a non-native freshwater fish, blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus, in tributaries of Chesapeake Bay resulted in the establishment of fisheries and in the expansion of the population into brackish habitats. Blue catfish are an invasive species in the Chesapeake Bay region, and efforts are underway to limit their impacts on native communities. Key characteristics of the population (population size, survival rates) are unknown, but such knowledge is useful in understanding the impact of blue catfish in estuarine systems. We estimated population size and survival rates of blue catfish in tidal habitats of the James River subestuary. We tagged 34,252 blue catfish during July–August 2012 and 2013; information from live recaptures (n = 1177) and dead recoveries (n = 279) were used to estimate annual survival rates and population size using Barker’s Model in a Robust Design and allowing for heterogeneity in detection probabilities. The blue catfish population in the 12-km study area was estimated to be 1.6 million fish in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI] adjusted for overdispersion: 926,307–2,914,208 fish). Annual apparent survival rate estimates were low: 0.16 (95% CI 0.10–0.24) in 2012–2013 and 0.44 (95% CI 0.31–0.58) in 2013–2014 and represent losses from the population through mortality, permanent emigration, or both. The tagged fish included individuals that were large enough to exhibit piscivory and represented size classes that are likely to colonize estuarine habitats. The large population size that we estimated was unexpected for a freshwater fish in tidal habitats and highlights the need to effectively manage such species.     

Thermal expansion and high-temperature P21/c–C2/c phase transition in clinopyroxene-type LiFeGe2O6 and comparison to NaFe(Si,Ge)2O6

A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe³⁺Ge₂O₆, monoclinic s.g. P2₁/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) Å, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) ų, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P2₁/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T _tr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below T _tr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > T _tr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the $(\bar{1}\,0\,1) A synthetic clinopyroxene with composition LiFe³⁺Ge₂O₆, monoclinic s.g. P2₁/c, a = 9.8792(7), b = 8.8095(5), c = 5.3754(3) ?, β = 108.844(6)°, V = 442.75(16) ?³, has been studied by in situ low- and high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The variation of lattice parameters and the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, only present in the P-symmetry) with increasing temperature showed a displacive phase transition from space group P2₁/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T _tr = 789 K, first order in character, with a sudden volume increase of 1.6% and a decrease of β by 1° at the transition. This spontaneous dilatation is reversible, shows a limited hysteresis of ±10°C, and corresponds to the vanishing of the b-type reflections, thus indicating a symmetry increase to space group C2/c. Below T _tr an expansion is observed for all the cell parameters, while the β angle remained almost constant; at T > T _tr the thermal volume expansion is due to dilatation of the structure in the ([`1] 0 1)(\bar{1}\,0\,1) plane, mostly along [0 1 0], and pure shear in the (0 1 0) plane due to the decrease of β. From comparison with silicate analogues, the germanate clinopyroxenes are more expansible, while the P2₁/c expands more than the C2/c phase. The evolution of Q ² (calculated as the normalized intensity of b-type reflections) with T in the framework of the Landau theory has been done using a standard expression for a first order phase transition. We observe a jump of Q ₀² = 0.538(2) at T _tr, with T _c of 481(7) K, b/a = −2,290 K, and c/a = 3,192 K, and thus far from being tri-critical point. A closely related composition (LiFe³⁺Si₂O₆) shows an equivalent phase transition at 228 K, which is very close to the tri-critical point and 561 K cooler. This result indicates that a change in the composition of tetrahedral sites can have dramatic effects on the P2₁/c ↔ C2/c displacive phase transition in clinopyroxenes. The major changes observed in the evolution of the crystal structure with T are observed in the M2 polyhedron, with a volume decrease by ca. 13.3%, compared to ca. 1.3% observed in the M1 polyhedron. The tetrahedra behave as rigid units with neither a significant change of volume at T > T _tr (<1‰), nor a change of tilting of the basal plane. No change in coordination is observed at T > T _tr in the M2 polyhedron, which remains sixfold coordinated although a strong deformation of this polyhedron is observed. This deformation is related to a strong change by 51.4° at T _tr of the kinking angle (O3–O3–O3 angle) of the B-chain of tetrahedra, which switches from O-rotated to S-rotated [from 143.3(5)° to 194.7(6)°]. The A-chain is S-rotated at T < T _tr [206.8(5)° at 703 K] and extends by 12° at the transition.     

Benthic foraminifera in sandy (siliciclastic) coastal sediments of the Arabian Gulf (Saudi Arabia): a technical report

The Uromia–Dokhtar Magmatic Arc (UDMA) is a northwest–southeast trending magmatic belt which is formed due to oblique subduction of Neotethys underneath Central Iran and dominantly comprises magmatic rocks. The Jebal-e-Barez Plutonic Complex (JBPC) is located southeast of the UDMA and composed of quartz diorite, granodiorite, granite, and alkali granite. Magmatic enclaves, ranging in composition from felsic to mafic, are abundant in the studied rocks. Based on the whole rock and mineral chemistry study, the granitoids are typically medium-high K calc-alkaline and metaluminous to peraluminous that show characteristics of I-type granitoids. The high field strength (HFS) and large ionic radius lithophile (LIL) element geochemistry suggests fractional crystallization as a major process in the evolution of the JBPC. The tectonomagmatic setting of the granitoids is compatible with the arc-related granitic suite, a pre-plate collision granitic suite, and a syncollision granitic suite. Field observations and petrographic and geochemical studies suggest that the rocks in this area are I-type granitoids and continental collision granitoids (CCG), continental arc granitoids (CAG), and island arc granitoid (IAG) subsections. The geothermobarometry based on the electron probe microanalysis of amphibole, feldspars, and biotite from selected rocks of JBPC implies that the complex formed at high-level depths (i.e., 9–12 km; upper continental crust) and at temperatures ranging from 650 to 750 °C under oxidation conditions. It seems that JBPC is located within a shear zone period, and structural setting of JBPC is extensional shear fractures which are product of transpression tectonic regime. All available data suggested that these granitoids may be derived from a magmatic arc that was formed by northeastern ward subduction of the Neotethyan oceanic crust beneath the Central Iran in Paleogene and subsequent collision between the Arabian and Iranian plates in Miocene.

     

Seismic response of L��Aquila downtown from comparison between 2D synthetics spectral ratios of SH, P-SV and Rayleigh waves and observations of the 2009 earthquake sequence

This is the first part of a study on the seismic response of the L’Aquila city using 2D simulation and experimental data. We have studied two velocity-depth models with the aim of outlining the behavior of a velocity reversal in the top layer, which is associated with the stiff Brecce de L’Aquila unit (BrA). In this setting, the SMTH model is topped by a layer with about 2:1 impedance contrast with the underlying layer while the NORV model has no velocity reversal. We have simulated the propagation of SH and P-SV wavefields in the range 0–10 Hz for incidence 0°–90°. Earthquake spectral ratios of the horizontal and vertical components at six sites in L’Aquila downtown are compared to corresponding synthetics spectral ratios. The vertical component of P-SV synthetics enables us to investigate a remarkable amplification effect seen in the vertical component of the recorded strong motion. Sites AQ04 and AQ05 are best matched by synthetics from the NORV model while FAQ5 and AQ06 have a better match with synthetics spectral ratios from the SMTH model. All simulations show this behavior systematically, with horizontal and near-horizontal incident waves predicting the overall pattern of matches more clearly than vertical and near-vertical incidence. The model inferences are in agreement with new geological data reporting lateral passages in the top layer from the stiff BrA to softer sediments. Matches are good in terms of frequency of the first amplification peak and of spectral amplitude: the horizontal components have spectral ratio peaks predominantly at 0.5 Hz in the simulations and at 0.7 Hz in the data, both with amplitudes of 4, while the vertical component spectral ratios reach values of 6 at frequencies of about 1 Hz in both data and simulations. The vertical component spectral ratios are very well matched using Rayleigh waves with incidence at 90°. The NORV model without the velocity reversal predicts spectral ratio peaks for the horizontal components at frequencies up to 6 Hz. The reversal of velocity acts as a low-pass frequency filter on the horizontal components reducing the amplification effect of the sediment filled valley.     

Sub-seismic scale fracture pattern and in situ permeability data in the chalk atop of the Krempe salt ridge at Lägerdorf, NW Germany: Inferences on synfolding stress field evolution and its impact on fracture connectivity

Chalk is exposed in the Heidestrasse quarry at Lägerdorf, at the top of the NE-SW trending Krempe salt ridge. Structural data indicate the presence of two joint sets, striking almost parallel and perpendicular to the salt ridge, respectively, and of a set of conjugate extensional faults and fault zones striking NW-SE, i.e. almost perpendicular to the salt ridge. Within the overall NW-SE trend of joints and faults, strike variations occur from the massive chalk exposed in the lower half of the quarry, to the overlying layered chalk. A large variability characterizes the normalized spacing of both joint sets, which does not show any clear trend with layer dip. In situ measurements indicate that the cross-sectional permeability of tight joints increases 1-2 orders of magnitude with respect to the undeformed chalk. We propose that joint and fault azimuthal variability resulted from changes through time of the stress ellipsoid at the top of the salt ridge, while joint spacing variability is associated with the weak mechanical influence of bedding in chalk. Azimuthal variability improves fracture connectivity and, hence, permeability and fluid flow.