Evaluating EOF modes against a stochastic null hypothesis

In this paper it is suggested that a stochastic isotropic diffusive process, representing a spatial first order auto regressive process (AR(1)-process), can be used as a null hypothesis for the spatial structure of climate variability. By comparing the leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of a fitted null hypothesis with EOF modes of an observed data set, inferences about the nature of the observed modes can be made. The concept and procedure of fitting the null hypothesis to the observed EOFs is in analogy to time analysis, where an AR(1)-process is fitted to the statistics of the time series in order to evaluate the nature of the time scale behavior of the time series. The formulation of a stochastic null hypothesis allows one to define teleconnection patterns as those modes that are most distinguished from the stochastic null hypothesis. The method is applied to several artificial and real data sets including the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean and the Northern Hemisphere wintertime and tropical sea level pressure.     

Stratigraphic Model Predictions of Geoacoustic Properties

Geoacoustic properties of the seabed have a controlling role in the propagation and reverberation of sound in shallow-water environments. Several techniques are available to quantify the important properties but are usually unable to adequately sample the region of interest. In this paper, we explore the potential for obtaining geotechnical properties from a process-based stratigraphic model. Grain-size predictions from the stratigraphic model are combined with two acoustic models to estimate sound speed with distance across the New Jersey continental shelf and with depth below the seabed. Model predictions are compared to two independent sets of data: 1) Surficial sound speeds obtained through direct measurement using in situ compressional wave probes, and 2) sound speed as a function of depth obtained through inversion of seabed reflection measurements. In water depths less than 100 m, the model predictions produce a trend of decreasing grain-size and sound speed with increasing water depth as similarly observed in the measured surficial data. In water depths between 100 and 130 m, the model predictions exhibit an increase in sound speed that was not observed in the measured surficial data. A closer comparison indicates that the grain-sizes predicted for the surficial sediments are generally too small producing sound speeds that are too slow. The predicted sound speeds also tend to be too slow for sediments 0.5-20 m below the seabed in water depths greater than 100 m. However, in water depths less than 100 m, the sound speeds between 0.5-20-m subbottom depth are generally too fast. There are several reasons for the discrepancies including the stratigraphic model was limited to two dimensions, the model was unable to simulate biologic processes responsible for the high sound-speed shell material common in the model area, and incomplete geological records necessary to accurately predict grain-size     

Irrigation effects in the northern lake states: Wisconsin central sands revisited

Irrigated agriculture has expanded greatly in the water-rich U.S. northern lake states during the past half century. Source water there is usually obtained from glacial aquifers strongly connected to surface waters, so irrigation has a potential to locally decrease base flows in streams and water levels in aquifers, lakes, and wetlands. During the nascent phase of the irrigation expansion, water availability was explored in works of some fame in the Wisconsin central sands by Weeks et al. (1965) on the Little Plover River and Weeks and Stangland (1971) on "headwater area" streams and lakes. Four decades later, and after irrigation has grown to a dominant landscape presence, we revisited irrigation effects on central sands hydrology. Irrigation effects have been substantial, on average decreasing base flows by a third or more in many stream headwaters and diminishing water levels by more than a meter in places. This explains why some surface waters have become flow and stage impaired, sometimes to the point of drying, with attendant losses of aquatic ecosystems. Irrigation exerts its effects by increasing evapotranspiration by an estimated 45 to 142 mm/year compared with pre-irrigated land cover. We conclude that irrigation water availability in the northern lake states and other regions with strong groundwater-surface water connections is tied to concerns for surface water health, requiring a focus on managing the upper few meters of aquifers on which surface waters depend rather than the depletability of an aquifer.     

Assessing catch shares' effects evidence from Federal United States and associated British Columbian fisheries

What are the effects of transitioning traditionally managed fisheries to incentive-based catch shares fisheries? In a study of all major United States federal catch share fisheries and associated shared stock fisheries in British Columbia, catch shares result in environmental improvements, economic improvements, and a mixture of changes in social performance, relative to the race for fish under traditional management. Environmentally, compliance with total allowable catch increases and discards decrease. Economically, vessel yields rise, total revenues grow, and long-term stock increases are encouraged. Socially, safety increases, some port areas modestly consolidate, needed processing capacity often reduces, and labor markets shift from part time jobs to full time jobs with similar total employment. Newer catch shares address many social concerns through careful design.     

Subsidence history and forming mechanism of anomalous tectonic subsidence in the Bozhong depression, Bohaiwan basin

The Bozhong depression of the Bohaiwan basin belongs to a family of extensional basins in East China, but is quite different from other parts of the basin. The Cenozoic subsidence of the depression is controlled by a combination of lithospheric thinning and polycyclic strike-slip movements. Three episodic rifts have been identified, i.e. Paleocence-early Eocene, middle-late Eocene and Oligocene age. The depression underwent syn-rift and post-rift stages, but two episodic dextral movement events of the strike-slip faults modify the subsidence of the Bozhong depression since the Oligocene. The early dextral movement of the Tan-Lu fault associated with crustal extension resulted in accelerated subsidence during the time of deposition of the Dongying Formation with a maximum thickness of 4000 m. A late reactivation of dextral movement of the Tan-Lu fault began in late Miocene (about 12 Ma), which resulted in the intense subsidence of Minghuazhen Formation and Quaternary. In addition, dynamic mantle convection-driven topography also accelerated the post-rift anomalous subsidence since the Miocene (24.6 Ma). Our results indicate that the primary control on rapid subsidence both during the rift and post-rift stages in the Bozhong depression originates from a combination of multiple episodic crustal extension and polycyclic dextral movements of strike-slip faults, and dynamic topography.     

New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.     

2060 Chiron back to a minimum of brightness

The results of photometric observations of comet/asteroid 2060 Chiron at the Observatório do Pico dos Dias (Brazil-OPD) and the Observatoire de Haute-Provence (France-OHP) during 1994 and 1995 are presented. The analysis of the data shows a decrease of 2060 Chiron brightness from its peak values of 1988–1991. The absolute magnitude, H_v, varies from a maximum of 6.6 in February 1994 up to a minimum of 6.8 in June 1995. Therefore 2060 Chiron is back to a minimum of activity close to that of 1983–1985. The slope parameter G is found to be G = 0.71 ± 0.15. It is suggested that the H-G magnitude system, generally adopted to present 2060 Chiron brightness, is not the most appropriate due to the cometary activity of this object.     

The eastward shift of the Walker Circulation in response to global warming and its relationship to ENSO variability

This study investigates the global warming response of the Walker Circulation and the other zonal circulation cells (represented by the zonal stream function), in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models. The changes in the mean state are presented as well as the changes in the modes of variability. The mean zonal circulation weakens in the multi model ensembles nearly everywhere along the equator under both the RCP4.5 and SRES A1B scenarios. Over the Pacific the Walker Circulation also shows a significant eastward shift. These changes in the mean circulation are very similar to the leading mode of interannual variability in the tropical zonal circulation cells, which is dominated by El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. During an El Niño event the circulation weakens and the rising branch over the Maritime Continent shifts to the east in comparison to neutral conditions (vice versa for a La Niña event). Two-thirds of the global warming forced trend of the Walker Circulation can be explained by a long-term trend in this interannual variability pattern, i.e. a shift towards more El Niño-like conditions in the multi-model mean under global warming. Further, interannual variability in the zonal circulation exhibits an asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. El Niño anomalies are located more to the east compared with La Niña anomalies. Consistent with this asymmetry we find a shift to the east of the dominant mode of variability of zonal stream function under global warming. All these results vary among the individual models, but the multi model ensembles of CMIP3 and CMIP5 show in nearly all aspects very similar results, which underline the robustness of these results. The observed data (ERA Interim reanalysis) from 1979 to 2012 shows a westward shift and strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This is opposite to what the results in the CMIP models reveal. However, 75 % of the trend of the Walker Circulation can again be explained by a shift of the dominant mode of variability, but here towards more La Niña-like conditions. Thus in both climate change projections and observations the long-term trends of the Walker Circulation seem to follow to a large part the pre-existing dominant mode of internal variability.